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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Tide Is Turning
TURKEY · Report · 02 Feb 2014

It is crunch time for AKP. After an unprecedented 11-year reign with few rivals of note, the party is facing severe challenges at home and abroad in the eve of do-or-die elections. Since Gezi Parki almost everything has gone wrong for AKP, which leads us to speculate that the tide may have turned...

Central America: Costa Rica´s Central Bank reduced its inflation target range
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 31 Jan 2014

The Central Bank of Costa Rica reduced its inflation target range for 2014-2015 to 4.0% ± 1 p.p. The new target, included in the Macroeconomic Program 2014-15 approved on January 29th, is consistent with the observed decline in the inflation rate during last year (3.68% y/y as of December). The B...

Full Course Dinner
PANAMA · Report · 30 Jan 2014

According to the electoral law, candidates for the general elections must be ratified according to each political party’s bylaws three months before the May 4 event. Therefore, almost all the candidates are already in place: the menu has options for all political tastes. Fusion cuisine prevails i...

Better-than-expected GDP growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Jan 2014

At 6.5%, 4Q13 GDP growth reached the top end of the government's revised forecast, confirming its assessment of Typhoon Haiyan's limited growth impact. Apart from the overall growth rate, the good news from the 4Q GDP release include stable, albeit slower, consumption growth (5.6%), double-digit ...

Robust Growth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jan 2014

Executive SummaryEl Salvador and Costa Rica have crucial presidential elections this Sunday. Both races seem headed for a runoff, since none of the candidates seem poised to gather enough votes to win in the first round. In both countries, a leftist party is a major contender -- a new situation f...

Key Leadership Choices Ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jan 2014

Executive SummaryEl Salvador and Costa Rica have crucial presidential elections this Sunday. Both races seem headed for a runoff, since none of the candidates seem poised to gather enough votes to win in the first round. In both countries, a leftist party is a major contender -- a new situation f...

The SARB Raises the Repo Rate
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Jan 2014

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) opted today to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% per year. On the face of it, it appears that, after a protracted period of inaction, the SARB preferred this time to join the monetary policy...

The SARB Raises the Repo Rate
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 Jan 2014

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) opted today to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent a year. On the face of it, it appears that, after a protracted period of inaction, the SARB preferred this time to join the monetary ...

Dominican Rep: against all odds, 2013 fiscal deficit on target
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 29 Jan 2014

The Ministry of Finance just released final figures on the fiscal deficit for 2013. It set the deficit at DOP 70.0 bn, slightly below the level authorized by the 2013 Budget Law. This is equivalent to 2.77% of GDP. The target was 2.8% of GDP. Total spending reached DOP 442.2 bn and revenues total...

Financial Reform’s Scope and Limits
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2014

Executive Summary Last week’s inflation report showed that consumer prices rose 0.68% during the first half of January, the sharpest increase for that two-week period in four years. That result pushed the National Consumer Price Index’s 12- month rate of inflation to 4.63%, the highest level sinc...

After-resignation review: risks of military conflict remain high
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Jan 2014

Resignation of prime minister and cancelled dictatorship laws allowed to breathe freely to society for a while. In fact, yesterday the country stepped back from abyss. For January 28 everyone anticipated state of emergency to be voted in which under current tension would be the official start of ...

Conundrum of Self Defense Groups
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The emergence in some states of civilian groups formed for purposes of self-defense against criminal gangs poses new challenges for the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto and the Mexican state in general. Nowhere is that challenge more acute at this moment than in th...

Congratulations, CBT!
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Jan 2014

Today's rate decisions are much bolder and in a more simplifying direction -- in terms of monetary policy/interest rate framework -- than we expected. The O/N lending rate is now 12%, up from 7.75%; borrowing rate is now 8% (up from 3.5%) and late O/N liquidity lending rate is now 15%, up from 10...

Capital Control Relaxation: Forced or Planned?
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Jan 2014

At yesterday’s daily press conference, Chief of Cabinet Jorge Capitanich, chaperoned by the Head of the local Internal Revenues Service (AFIP) Ricardo Echegaray, gave some details of the new relaxations to capital controls, which were hastily brought forward last Friday after the significant slip...

The CBT moves in the right direction, uncertainties remain
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Jan 2014

Governor Basci spoke today at the presentation of the year's first Inflation Report. As common sense dictates given the developments to date, inflation estimate for this year was revised upward to 6.6%, from 5.3% earlier. This was driven by food prices (0.3 pp), January tax adjustments (0.5 pp) a...

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