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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political Insights: Week of May 12
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2014

The 10-minute PT party ad will air on Thursday, with Dilma Rousseff and Lula as the focus of the ad.Guido Mantega goes to the House to address the Petrobras allegations as well as the economic scenario.Congress continues focus on the Petrobras CPI.Mayors from all over the country will take part i...

Chugging Along
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 12 May 2014

Executive Summary By and large, the central scenario we drew up in our last quarterly report continues to hold, with government’s own leading economic indicator pointing to a slowdown in 1Q14 GDP growth.We are also seeing several potential drags on growth, including infrastructure bottlenecks and...

Postponing Decisions and Increasing the Costs of the Adjustment
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 May 2014

Executive Summary By all indications, GDP growth in 2014 will fall shy of that in 2013, with a further decline in 2015. Inflation will close the year near 6.5%, which together with the effects of the correction of gasoline and electricity prices will require a further increase in the interest ...

Another ‘referendum’? Or just opinion-poll?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 May 2014

On May 11 separatists did organize the widely advertised ‘referendum’. Bulletins printed on common printers. Only few polling points (instead of few hundreds needed). No passports or other IDs needed to vote. Some cities are voting for Donetsk National Republic, some cities are voting for merging...

Weekly Tracker: May 11-17
TURKEY · Report · 11 May 2014

Executive Summary Industrial production surprised on the upside in March, expanding 4.2%, y/y. This has brought the IP growth in Q1 to a solid 5.3% (unadjusted), up from Q4’s 3.8%, marking a stronger than envisaged entry into the year. What is the source of this resilience? To answer this questio...

IPCA: Inflation Accelerates
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 May 2014

In March the IPCA grew by 0.92%, in comparison with the IPCA-15 of 0.73%, raising the 12-month figure from 5.68% to 6.15% (Graph 1). With this result, the probability has grown that inflation will exceed the upper bound of the target interval at some point during the second or third quarters this...

Changing the Rules
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2014

Increasing international pressure and sanctions by the US and its allies have been used by Russia’s ruling elite as an excuse to intensify control over society at large. However, top-level decision-makers would also like to maintain tighter control over the national elite, and for that reason Pre...

Industrial Production: Revision in the Series and Results for March
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 May 2014

Executive Summary The IBGE has just released the industrial output numbers for March. However, in computing those numbers it applied a revised survey method. In the first part of this Bulletin we comment on the results for March, while in the second part we briefly describe the changes instituted...

An Acute Case of Foot-in-Mouth Disease
PERU · Report · 06 May 2014

Executive SummaryThe murder of a rival of Ancash’s regional president pushed worries over political delinquency in the provinces on to the front pages. The scandal forced the agencies overseeing October’s municipal and regional elections to warn that the spread of criminality in politics was the ...

Political Environment Tightens
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2014

Executive Summary Last week’s one-and-only debate between the two men competing for the chairmanship of the National Action Party confirmed the general impression that little, other than personal animosities and clique allegiances, separates either contender, as no evidence emerged of any clear i...

Promising Signals
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2014

Executive Summary Recent economic news has pointed toward the possibility that the Mexican economy enjoyed a slight recovery during the second and third months of 2014, especially the monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) for February, which appeared to herald stronger economic conditions going forward. Manuf...

Juan Carlos Varela Posts Unexpected Win
PANAMA · Report · 06 May 2014

Juan Carlos Varela, the leader of the rightist Panameñista Party in coalition with Partido Popular (former Christian Democrats) won the presidential election with 39.2% of the votes. José Domingo Arias of the ruling Party Cambio Democrático (CD) got 32% and Juan Carlos Navarro of the PRD received...

The Reduction in the Growth of Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 May 2014

The reduced growth pace of real retail sales is not only due to the slower expansion of employment, causing deceleration of real payroll growth. Another factor is the reduced expansion of credit to individuals. The effects are most visible in car sales, which are very sensitive to bank lending po...

Core Nears Double the Target Rate
TURKEY · Report · 05 May 2014

CPI inflation was a higher than expected 1.3% in April (consensus: 0.9%), which took the 12-month rate a full percentage point higher, to 9.4%. Food was a big contributor, with monthly food inflation (including beverages) swinging from a negative 1.3% in April 2013 to an increase of 1.4% in April...

Political Insights: Week of May 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2014

The creation of the Petrobras CPI will once again be one of the main topics for the week as party leaders may decide whether the Committee will be made up of senators or whether it will be a Joint CPI, with federal representatives.This weekend a new Datafolha poll on the presidential race will be...

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