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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Medina Still Likely to Win in the First Round
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 25 Feb 2016

The Ministry of Finance still hasn’t published or reported data on the 2015 fiscal balance. Data is available to November, and is unreliable for forecasting the closure of the year. Still, we expect the NFPS fiscal deficit to come in slightly over its target under the Budget Law. This year beg...

Politics: The Fight for the Lost World of Mexican Prisons
MEXICO · Report · 24 Feb 2016

The recent riot in Topo Chico prison, in which 49 inmates were killed and another 12 seriously injured, is just the latest in a long history of official neglect and abject conditions prevailing in many correctional facilities throughout Mexico. The specific diagnostic for the Topo Chico facility ...

The problems in banking
INDIA · Report · 23 Feb 2016

A very approximate calculation suggests that perhaps Rs.5.5 trillion are required to bring Indian banking back to the state of health found in February 2008. This is considerably larger than the existing plan at the Ministry of Finance, to infuse Rs.0.7 trillion into public sector banks. We have ...

Not So Quick
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 23 Feb 2016

The foreign exchange measures announced by President Maduro on February 17 are still in the pipeline. Exchange Agreement No. 34 published on February 18 refers to the Simadi rate for exporters announced on February 10. Jesus Faría, minister of Foreign Trade and Investment, said yesterday that a t...

Presidential election: Ibope – Lula has the highest rejection level
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2016

Ibope conducted a poll (February 13-17) to measure the potential votes and rejection rates of the pre-candidates for the 2019 presidential race. According to the poll, the candidates with the most potential votes (the sum of “Would definitely vote for him/her” and “Could vote for him/her”) are fo...

On Auto-Pilot, At Least Until April
TURKEY · Report · 23 Feb 2016

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee has left all rates unchanged today (Graph 1). The statement was almost exactly the same as well, except for two minor changes. The sentence, “demand from the European Union economies continues to support exports”, was modified to include, “at an increasi...

Car wash operation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Feb 2016

The new phase of the Lava Jato Operation, triggered this morning, is potentially worrisome for the government. The arrest of João Santana, the man behind the PT’s ads in the past elections, is a matter of time. An arrest warrant has been issued, but not fulfilled since Santana is currently out of...

Deep Recession and Risk of Solvency of the Public Debt
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 22 Feb 2016

Brazil is suffering its worst recession in the past 35 years. GDP in 2015 fell by about 4%, and will probably contract by 4.2% in 2016. Investments next year will also fall 10%, along with further contraction of household consumption, by around 3%. The average unemployment rate in 2016 should be ...

Week of February 22
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Feb 2016

Expectations are surrounding the return of the former leader of the government, Delcídio do Amaral, to the Senate. Budget cuts announced by the government will also be a subject of discussion. President Dilma Rousseff participates in the PT’s 36-year anniversary celebration. The party may announc...

The RMB and capital outflows
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Feb 2016

- Beijing’s FX reserves are substantial, and recent concerns that they will very soon be depleted are overstated, although there is no question that if net outflows continue at current levels for many more months, we will have to start seriously reconsidering. - The idea, however, that Chi...

The Fiscal Crisis and a New Downgrade
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Feb 2016

Standard & Poor’s lowered Brazil’s credit rating again, now to “BB”, two steps below investment grade, with a negative outlook. The announcement had virtually no effect on the markets: Brazil’s 10-year CDS quotation dipped 20 basis points and the real appreciated slightly. This behavior is no sur...

Further emphasis on loosening talk, no rate cut likely at tomorrow's MC meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Feb 2016

At tomorrow's rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Council is unlikely to cut the 1.35% base rate, but it will most probably put further emphasis on its usual loosening talk, rewording their communique, reiterating previous commitments to use de-sterilization measures and swaps to ease monetary con...

The Year of Our Discontent
TURKEY · Report · 21 Feb 2016

The political context is highly chaotic and non-linear. We have decided to take Syria as our starting point, which reverberates through domestic politics as well as the budding relationship with the EU. The war in Syria will not end soon, but Turkey will not dare to enter the country and watch wi...

Unraveling the Fiscal Accounts and Interpreting the Economic Indicators
PANAMA · Report · 19 Feb 2016 · 1 response

Fiscal results presented by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) show two issues that do not properly allow grasping Panama’s real fiscal stance: the notion of adjusted deficit and the impact of turnkey projects. Moreover, nominal GDP estimated by the MEF for 2015 is under scrutiny, since it...

Still Digging
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Feb 2016

President Maduro’s announcements ratify the policy status quo and confirm there’s little room to liberalize controls and to correct the distortions that underpin the government's alliances with interest groups profiting from them. At the same time, Luis Salas’s departure from the Cabinet hint tha...

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