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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Positive surprise in Q2 GDP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Aug 2016

GDP growth in Q2 2016 came out as 1.1% qoq, 1.7% yoy on sda basis, a remarkable recovery from a revised -0.7% qoq, 0.7% yoy in the previous quarter. We expected 0.5% qoq, and the analyst consensus was 0.6% qoq, so the actual data was for sure a big positive surprise. As usual, the statistical off...

From confusion to de jure inflation targeting
INDIA · Report · 11 Aug 2016

For many decades, the RBI has claimed it pursues multiple objectives based on looking at multiple indicators and using multiple instruments. Critics argued that this was a fancy phrase to describe the lack of a monetary policy framework. A series of expert committee reports, starting with the Per...

​Fiscal policy turns more expansionary
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Aug 2016

The fiscal policy of the present government (and especially that of the MOF Minister Kachlon) has been characterized by fairly high rapid growth in government expenditure as well as tax reductions. This policy commenced in the 2016 budget (as the 2015 budget was only approved in November 2015) an...

Economics: Pemex, Public Finance Weaken
MEXICO · Report · 11 Aug 2016

Last month, Pemex announced its second quarter of 2016 results. Despite a slight recovery in oil prices during the year and a fall in its tax payments, the company’s financial situation continues to weaken rapidly. The news is not encouraging on almost any level, and the company’s situation h...

Politics: Dark Cloud Envelops Business-Government Ties
MEXICO · Report · 11 Aug 2016

Relations between government and business soured early during the administration of President Enrique Peña after passage of a fiscal reform that raised rates and closed loopholes. Worse yet, business leaders felt that the door had been closed to the sort of dialogue they had been accustomed to. T...

Russia starts provocations in Crimea
UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Aug 2016

Something strange has started in Crimea. On Monday, August 8th, Crimean inhabitants reported in social nets that checkpoints at the entrance to the peninsular were blocked on the Russian side. Observers heard some shootings and saw Russian military maneuvering close to the Ukrainian checkpoints. ...

Digging itself in deeper
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 10 Aug 2016

The speech delivered on August 9 by Tibisay Lucena, president of the National Electoral Council (CNE), marks the beginning of a phase of heightened conflict and uncertainty in Venezuelan politics. Her words suggesting "end of October" as a possible date for collection of the "manifestations of wi...

Dilma's fate is sealed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2016 · 1 response

The Senate approved the pronunciation of the indictment of President Dilma Rousseff. The result underscores important trends.

Week of August 8
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2016

This week the Senate decides if it will proceed with the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. The day after the decision, the president will release an open letter to Senators .In the House, the floor will attempt to vote on the bill on state debt with the federal government. The case calling...

The Good News
INDIA · Report · 08 Aug 2016

The 122nd Amendment to the Constitution, which is essential to the GST (Goods and Services Tax), was approved in the Upper House (where the BJP does not have a majority). This is an important milestone in terms of politics. When the BJP was in opposition, it ran a scorched earth policy, blocki...

Beijing must implement balance-sheet reforms
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Aug 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Forecasting GDP growth in China over the rest of 2016 is a fairly meaningless exercise, not because there is too much economic uncertainty for an accurate forecast but rather because growth will be determined as the outcome of a political exercise b...

End of the Recession and Perspectives for Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Aug 2016

If the end of a recession is defined as the moment when GDP stops contracting, then it is highly likely that the current recession will end in the third quarter this year, after completing 9 quarters. This is what our leading indicator portends, supported by the latest numbers on industrial produ...

Great Expectations
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 08 Aug 2016

From a little known local politician this time last year, the one-month-old President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, now holds the record for the highest start-of-term level of public trust. He and his team have hit the ground running, exuding an air of impatience, no doubt intending to tr...

Depression and inflation but no default
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 08 Aug 2016 · 1 response

In our central scenario, we forecast that, in 2016–2017, Venezuela’s economy will continue to shrink and that inflation will stay in the triple digits. Helped by recovering oil prices, however, the pace of contraction will slow down in the second half of 2016 and even more so in 2017. Despite the...

More Uncertainty Over the Yuan
CHINA · Forecast · 08 Aug 2016

There’s downward pressure on growth, though we also expect growth rates to stabilize. GDP grew 6.7% y/y in Q2, flat on Q1. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y. Though growth was 0.3 pps faster than in Q1, the recovery is weak. Retail sales of social consumption goods rose 10.2% y/y in nominal t...

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