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Economic Scenarios: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Feb 2015

Executive Summary For the first time in decades, the electoral year and the political transition toward “a more rational administration” is helping to stabilize the economy. There is a broad consensus that any of the candidates who are leading the polls will make the necessary changes to improve ...

Week of February 2
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Feb 2015

A politically intense week, with the end of the recess for the Legislative and Judiciary.The government will have to regroup the allied base after the election for presidents of the House and Senate.Dialogue with unions on the fiscal adjustment measures continues.President Dilma Rousseff and form...

COSTA RICA: Hello Managed Floating; Good Bye Currency Bands
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 02 Feb 2015

The Central Bank announced last Saturday the elimination of the currency band and the start of a new exchange rate regime characterized by a managed float. The new system, which has been the de facto regime over the past 12 months, implies the Central Bank´s active participation in the market to ...

The Size of the Fiscal Disaster in 2014
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Feb 2015

Few observers had any doubts that the fiscal policy put into practice by former finance minister Mantega would leave a disastrous legacy. The publication of the numbers for 2014 last week allows assessing the problem’s magnitude. From January through December 2014, the central government had a pr...

Weekly Tracker: February 1-7
TURKEY · Report · 01 Feb 2015

Executive Summary President Erdogan launched a campaign for a new Constitution and Executive Presidency after the general elections.This means the stakes are very high going to the June 7th ballot. We dedicate a major portion of the politics section to the implications of Mr. Erdogan’s dreams of ...

Dominican Rep buys back the debt with Venezuela under Petrocaribe with a 52% discount
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 30 Jan 2015

After months of rumors, last night the Minister of Finance of the Dominican Republic announced that the government has bought back 98.5% of the total debt with PDVSA, the Venezuelan state owned oil company. The debt was contracted under Petrocaribe, a program which provides generous financing for...

Will China Save the Day?
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Jan 2015

Executive Summary President Maduro signaled policy continuity in his annual address to the legislature last January 21. We see no signs that severe shortages and spiraling inflation will be tamed and remain as uncertain as we were last month regarding the probability of default. We project net ou...

Repo Rate Unchanged on Improved Inflation Prospects
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Jan 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left the repo rate unchanged at 5.75%. In acknowledging the continued weakness of the South African economy, Governor Lesetja Kganyago mentioned that the earlier emphasized interest rate normalization process will be pau...

The IMF mission to stay one more week in Kyiv
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Jan 2015

The IMF mission, which arrived in Kyiv on January 12 and was expected to finalize its work on January 29, will stay one more week in Kyiv, media reported. In our opinion it is a positive signal. After crazy budget 2015 the authorities approved in late December 2014 it is good the parties still ha...

4Q14 GDP at 6.9%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Jan 2015

Government announced today a 6.9% GDP growth in 4Q14 that brought the full year average to 6.1%, exactly matching our forecast made early in the year. The big contributor to 4Q14 growth was net exports as sales of electronics products quickened and imports were held down by port congestion and st...

The “New Normal”
CHINA · Report · 29 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Growth has been slowing, with the 7.4% rise in real GDP in 2014 representing a 0.3 pp dip from 2013. That means growth has run below 8% for three years in a row. Quarterly growth rates were quite flat last year, too. Some depressive factors are worth noting. First, industr...

The growing corrosive power of the Petrolão scandal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2015

Two new pieces of information add potentially explosive elements to the crisis surrounding the Petrobras corruption allegations. According to the Radar Online column, the President of UTC, Ricardo Pessoa, is collaborating with the Lava Jato operation on a plea bargain deal in exchange for informa...

2014 Inflation: Puzzling Data
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jan 2015

In the absence of BCV inflation data, we continue analyzing inflation using the household food basket data published by the Center for Documentation and Social Analysis of the Venezuelan Federation of Teachers (Cendas). This data has shown significant correlation with the NCPI food subindex. Acco...

Economics: Weaker Economic Census Results
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The National Statistics Office (Inegi) recently released the preliminary version of the results from its 2014 Economic Census. The census, conducted in 2014, collected statistical data information on the activities of business establishments during 2013. The census, which is con...

Politics: Parties Fiddle as 2015 Campaign Looms
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jan 2015

Executive Summary A major threat to the credibility of the June elections consists of the degree to which the parties act as if they are utterly oblivious to the extent to which they are held in disrepute and proceed as if all were business as usual, preoccupied by infighting and the seemingly et...

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