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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Industrial Production: The Appearances are Misleading
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Oct 2014

At first glance, it appears that by growing 0.7% in August, repeating the expansion measured in July, that industrial production has finally started to recover. However, appearances can be deceiving. First of all, the recent improvement is exclusively due to growth in the mineral extraction indus...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Oct 2014

Aécio scores points in the best debate of the campaign Aécio Neves was the winner of the debate on TV Globo.He took the initiative and continued with the strategy that has been working in the final leg of this campaign: attacking the government, with a special focus on corruption, and dialoguing ...

Legislative Imperatives
PHILIPPINES · Report · 03 Oct 2014

We are keenly following three things now on Congress’s plate given their crucial role in keeping confidence and economic growth up in the very short term, as well as over the longer haul. The more immediate one is the President’s request for emergency powers to address a forecast shortage in elec...

Time To Have a Little Break
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2014

September CPI inflation came in at a better than expected 0.1% (consensus: 0.4%), largely on account of a favorable drop in food prices and a somewhat stronger than expected base effect in transportation prices. Food prices, we estimate, have shrunk modestly in September (seasonally-adjusted), po...

Fiscal Policy: A Picture Without Retouches
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Oct 2014

Executive Summary The primary surplus target of 1.9% of GDP in 2014 will not be met. This comes as no surprise. The surprise comes from the fact that the distance between the “official” target and what is actually achieved will be greater than previously estimated, revealing the magnitude of t...

2015 Budget
CHILE · Report · 02 Oct 2014

On October 1, the government presented to Congress its proposal for the 2015 budget. The budget must be approved by Congress before the end of November. The government claims that the budget is aggressively countercyclical. Fiscal spending in Chile depends on “structural” rather than current f...

Moderate Central Bank President Resigns
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Oct 2014

Today Juan Carlos Fábrega presented his resignation as President of Argentina's Central Bank (BCRA). As his replacement President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) appointed Alejandro Vanoli, former president of the National Securities Commission (CNV), the local capital market regulator. Fabr...

Navigating a Cold Peace
UKRAINE · Forecast · 01 Oct 2014

The “Truce treaty” with the separatists has left Ukraine in a very unclear position. On one hand, President Petro Poroshenko says this step was crucial to halting further Russian advances into Ukrainian territory (though the Russian Army’s heavy casualties were probably the real reason). On the o...

Moderate Central Bank President Resigns
ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Oct 2014

This Market Brief was originally issued on October 1, 2014 as a post on GSP Direct, the GlobalSource Partners interactive webtool providing clients an initial response to breaking news and developments. Today Juan Carlos Fábrega presented his resignation as President of Argentina's Central Bank (...

Don’t Expect The Reform Process To Be Linear
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 01 Oct 2014

• Recent rumors that Zhou Xiaochuan will retire as governor of the PBoC should not be interpreted as an indication that Beijing has changed its mind about the urgency of reform. Given Zhou’s age, it was unlikely that he would remain in his seat for very long, and in fact if these rumors are true,...

SA Water Crisis: Self-made or Natural?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Oct 2014

Over the past few weeks, Gauteng Province has experienced a new crisis, this time related to another key socio-economic infrastructure category, namely water availability. Hot on the heels of continued disruptions to power supply and rising costs of electricity over the past five years, the persi...

Turkey’s “no guts, no glory” Dilemma
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Oct 2014

The Cabinet submitted a war powers bill to the parliament which seeks to receive broad authority to combat ISIS, PKK and “other terror organizations in our region” at home and abroad. The bill is worded intentionally vague, leaving much of the discretion in terms of specifics to the Cabinet. For ...

Reform Package: Neutral for Politics, Neutral for Markets
TURKEY · Report · 01 Oct 2014

The Reform Package (RP), announced by Prime Minister Erdogan on Monday failed short of the media campaign that led to it, as well as the aspirations of the intended recipients except one clientele: the devout Moslem females. Mr. Erdogan demonstrated once again that substantial human rights reform...

Dilma leads; Marina and Aécio Fighting for a Spot in the 2nd Round
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2014

The CNT/MDA and Vox Populi polls (9/29/2014) give Dilma Rousseff (PT) a 15-point lead over Marina Silva (PSB) in the 1st round. This is a considerable advantage given that there is less than a week left before the election. The question is – whom will she face in the 2nd round?It is likely to be ...

Weak Links in 2015 Budget
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2014

Since the Ministry of Finance handed Congress the administration’s 2015 budget proposals, a number of officials have come forward to argue that if approved, this budget would prove to be both responsible and one that would push public investment to new record highs, even going so far as to argue ...

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