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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

More Free Trade Zones Established
CHINA · Report · 24 Dec 2014

Executive Summary Fixed asset investment rose 14.9% y/y in real terms in November, while industrial output fell further, up 7.2% y/y, down almost 2 pps from H1. Time is needed for the Central Bank’s November interest rate cuts to have a positive effect on real economy. Retail sales of consu...

MPC: An Uneventful Ending
TURKEY · Report · 24 Dec 2014

In line with the consensus view, the Monetary Policy Committee left all interest rates unchanged today: the weekly repo rate at 8.25%; O/N lending and borrowing rates at 11.25% and 7.5%, respectively (see chart). In terms of the content of the statement, there was no major change from the previou...

Crazy budget 2015
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Dec 2014 · 2 responses

It was a huge disappointment to see draft budget 2015 the Cabinet submitted to the parliament today. Given that Ukraine badly needs financial support from the IMF it was widely expected that Minfin will present a realistic revenues’ target with substantial spending cuts. The numbers we saw today ...

Bring Them to the Cities!
CHINA · Report · 23 Dec 2014

Executive Summary Though the Central Economic Work Conference in early December didn’t set a GDP growth target for 2014, many pundits suspect it will be in the 7.2%-7.5% range. Premier Li Keqiang reportedly remarked that 7.2% seemed to be the necessary level for satisfying 2014 Chinese employment...

The High Opportunity Cost of Arrogance
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryPresident Correa has accustomed us to his displays of ideology bias and haughtiness. This past week the government denied entrance to a group of representatives from the German environmental parliament. The impasse ended up with Ecuador terminating the environmental cooperation w...

Glimmers of Strength
MEXICO · Report · 22 Dec 2014

Executive Summary The Mexican economy has been showing signs of firming: In November officials reported that GDP had rebounded to its “natural rate” of growth, of nearly 3%. But there are surprise headwinds, too. Industrial production in October was up 2.1% y/y, an expansion driven by manufacturi...

Deep Recession and Large Risks in 2015
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 22 Dec 2014

Executive Summary This report updates our macroeconomic outlook for 2015. In our central scenario, the economy sinks deeper into recession (–6.4 percent) and suffers triple-digit inflation (124.9 percent). Personal consumption slips by 4.2 percent. The current account balance turns negative (–$6....

The Current Account Deficit Has Climbed above 4% of GDP
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Dec 2014

The current transactions account showed a deficit of US$ 9.3 billion in November, bringing the total deficit over the preceding 12 months to US$ 88.7 billion, or 4.1% of GDP, the largest proportional deficit since January 2002 (Graph 1). This large negative result reflects the current capital flo...

Oil Prices, Full Employment and 2015 Politics
COLOMBIA · Report · 22 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryThough oil prices are down 20% from their 2014 peaks, the impact on economic results this year will be limited. Recall that the Colombian price basket is around 10% lower than Brent. 2015 growth forecasts are being cut, to account for a weaker mining sector, and for lower househo...

Oil Price Plunge a Welcome Holiday Gift
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 22 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryEconomic activity continued strong in October, with the monthly economic activity indicator turning in an output rise of 5.9% y/y. Monthly activity growth was 7.1% on average between January and October, and deviation from the average was moderate.Consumer prices fell 0.14% in No...

Slow Motion
CHILE · Forecast · 22 Dec 2014

Executive Summary In our base case scenario, the economy will grow approximately 1.7% in 2014 For 2015, uncertainty is huge and tilted to the negative side. Lately, the international scenario has become increasingly volatile, and that is dangerous for a small, open, flexible-exchange rate econ...

The Great Divergence
TURKEY · Report · 21 Dec 2014

Executive Summary The old year departs with two important political events in tow. The Constitutional Court will rule whether the 10% election hurdle is fair. We can’t handicap the ruling, but if the hurdle is struck down, a frenzied rush will be triggered to replace it with new legislation, draw...

Cooling the Boiling Public
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 19 Dec 2014

Falling oil prices and Western sanctions limiting access of capital to the Russian market resulted in rapid ruble depreciation, especially since they coincided with the Central Bank’s change of policies eventually allowing the free flow of the national currency for the first time in history. Occa...

Public Perception of Political Crisis
MEXICO · Report · 19 Dec 2014

Executive Summary Last week’s release of GEA-ISA’s most recent quarterly study, Mexico Politics, Society and Change: Governability Scenarios and the accompanying nationwide door-to-door survey of registered voters offers us the opportunity to look at the country’s multifaceted political and insti...

Oil’s Toll on the Mexican Economy
MEXICO · Report · 19 Dec 2014

Executive Summary One of the subjects most widely discussed in recent weeks is the abrupt plunge in oil prices and the multiple effects it will entail for both producing and consuming countries. Prices have fallen by an average of 35% to 40% from their highs of the past decade (2011), and the sim...

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