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Hungary sovereign credit may be upgraded in November 2016
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Dec 2015

The top three rating agencies published their revision dates for Hungary's sovereign credit for 2016. Moody's will make its first revision on March 4, followed by July 8 and then by November 4. S&P will look at Hungary on March 18 and September 16, and Fitch Ratings will do so on May 20 and Novem...

The Challenges Ahead for 2016
PANAMA · Report · 30 Dec 2015

Amidst regional distress, our expectation is that Panama’s GDP will grow 5.6%-5.7% this year. We expect private consumption to continue to offset the fallout from lower private and public investment, as well as the impact of a stronger US Dollar on net exports. The MEF is projecting growth at a s...

A Sad Lack of Growth Prospects
UKRAINE · Forecast · 30 Dec 2015

All indicators suggest that 2016 will see GDP growth of 1.2% y/y . The bad news is that this minor rise is primarily due to a low comparative base, after two years of contraction. Unfortunately, we don’t see solid evidence that growth will continue.External demand, traditionally at the core of th...

The Year Ahead: Peace, Tax Reform, and Mild Growth
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Dec 2015

Colombian GDP grew by 3.2% in Q3 – a reasonably good result, given the economic shock. Strong domestic demand has helped compensate for falling exports. Commerce GDP was up a surprising 4.8% in Q3. Private consumption has climbed on both unusually low unemployment and a still-dynamic credit marke...

A Promising Start (but Big Challenges Ahead)
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Dec 2015

In just two weeks, Mauricio Macri has already followed through on his first electoral promise: to eliminate the exchange rate controls and the main taxes and restrictions on foreign trade. The realignment of relative prices that started with the exchange rate unification and the elimination of...

Explosion of Candidates Under Growth Stagnation
PERU · Report · 28 Dec 2015

We expect at least ten of the 17 current presidential candidates to stay in the race, after the January 11th deadline to register to run in the April 10th elections. December polls show Keiko Fujimori maintaining her lead, with voter intentions at 30%- 35%, and Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski a distant sec...

Parliament approves budget-2016
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Dec 2015

MPs finally voted in budget-2016 and all supporting legislations including tax changes. The final version of budget was not released yet since many last-minute changes were introduced. However, from transcripts we know that the deficit was left unchanged UAH 83.7 billion (3.7% of GDP) as the IMF ...

Pollution Made Priority, Despite Growth Slowdown
CHINA · Report · 24 Dec 2015

With the IMF’s inclusion of the RMB in its SDR basket, the People’s Bank of China on December 11th published an “RMB index,” against 13 major currencies. This indicates that the RMB exchange rate has officially shifted back to its formally announced regime of “managed floating with reference to a...

Economics: The Puzzle of Conflicting Indicators
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2015

The contrast between the weak behavior of Mexico’s GDP in the first six months of 2015 and various other economic indicators prompted the head of Mexico’s Tax Authority (SAT), Aristóteles Núñez, and some analysts to begin arguing in October that there was a probability that the methodology the au...

Politics: Administration’s Second-half Focus
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2015

The second half of the six-year administration of President Enrique Peña will be defined by two major issues that are interlinked: the effective implementation of the structural reforms that were passed during the current government’s first year in office, and trying to manage a presidential succ...

Mixed Growth, Fragile Finances
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Dec 2015

Costa Rica is headed toward the second lowest GDP growth rate in the region, after El Salvador. Indicators show some improvement, though still suggest pessimism. The outlook for 2016 looks somewhat better: both imports and exports are on track to reverse their decreasing trend soon, as the effect...

Choosing more debt, more unemployment, or transfers
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 23 Dec 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue: In 2016 the PBoC will evaluate the change in the value of the RMB not just in dollar terms but increasingly in terms of a wider basket of currencies. We should not discount the possibility, however, that after a quarter or two of dollar strength o...

A tight race
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Dec 2015

In recent days, three pollsters, seen generally as independent and trustworthy, published the results of their December surveys on voter preferences for the next President of the country. There are notable differences in the numbers especially in the one done by Pulse Asia, where VP Jejomar Binay...

MPC: On a Wing and a Prayer
TURKEY · Report · 22 Dec 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee surprised markets today – us, too, though we had not completely ruled out such an outcome – by not changing any of the rates (see chart). This is a pretty disappointing move that is hard to explain, other than, of course, by political motives. Otherwise, why would th...

Correa The Chess Player
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Dec 2015

Six months ago, Correa was ready to run for another election in 2017 and was strongly pushing reforms to the Constitution that would allow indefinite re-election. A few weeks ago, he declared his presence in the 2017 elections was not necessary given the evidence of a week and not articulated opp...

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