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Guide for December 6
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Dec 2015

What’s at stake? All 167 seats in the unicameral National Assembly are up for grabs on December 6: 113 deputies will be elected individually (by name, not by parties) and 54 will be chosen from party lists, allocated following the D'Hondt method.

South Africa Takes a Giant Leap East
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 04 Dec 2015

South Africa is currently hosting President Xi Jinping for the 6th China-Africa Forum, being held for the first time on the continent, aiming to restructure the relationship with China from that of a "perceived new colonizer" to an effective partner in development. China, too, is keen to recast t...

Growth Rise Driven by Oil Output
MEXICO · Report · 03 Dec 2015

GDP grew far more than expected in Q3, at a 12-month rate of 2.6%, vs. the market consensus projection of 2.3%, according to a preliminary report. Commerce, the weightiest of the three main sectors, grew most robustly, with its 4.8% y/y expansion surpassing consensus growth predictions of 3%. ...

One Swallow Does Not A Summer Make
CHILE · Forecast · 03 Dec 2015

We have revised our forecasts: (i) We now expect GDP to grow 2% in 2016, down from 2.5% previously; (ii) The current account deficit will be around 2% of GDP in 2016 and will increase another percentage point of GDP in 2017; (iii) The fiscal deficit will be close to 4.0% of GDP both in 2015 and 2...

Impeachment debate begins in the House
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Dec 2015

In a controversial decision, the President of the House Eduardo Cunha accepted the request for the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. Motivated by his political fragility, especially in the Ethics Committee, which is currently analyzing whether or not he broke the code of conduct, Eduard...

GDP in the Third Quarter
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2015

Third-quarter GDP contracted 1.7% in relation to the previous quarter. The estimate for the year is a drop between 3.7% and 4%, and based on an estimate that GDP will fall by 1% in the fourth quarter, the carry-over to 2016 is -2%. The recession has lasted six quarters and the drop in GDP drop...

November Inflation and the New Normal
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2015

Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 0.7% in November, which meant an increase in the 12-month rate to 8.1%, from 7.6% in October. Producer prices behaved better, declining to 5.25%, y/y, from 5.7% a month earlier, possibly reflecting the favorable cost-push effects from a stronger lira...

The disqualification of Senator Poe
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Dec 2015

"Increased uncertainty" is becoming a common refrain among political analysts these days. We are hearing it again following a disqualification decision Tuesday against Senator Grace Poe by a 3-member division of the Commission on Elections (Comelec). The ruling is on one of four disqualification ...

Bank risks can create system risks
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 02 Dec 2015 · 1 response

Why does an open capital account reduce Beijing’s ability to control refinancing risk? Because part of reason that what looks like liquidity mismatches between shorter-term liabilities and longer-term assets are a lot less risky than they seem for China is that liabilities may be liquid at the in...

Should China relax capital controls?
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 02 Dec 2015

But here’s another thought. SDR membership may actually hamper Beijing's ability to constrain capital flows because now that they have taken the seat they’ve always wanted, at the big boy’s table, they can’t really go back to tossing pieces of bread at the other kids. Beijing is going to have to ...

Does SDR membership weaken the RMB?
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 02 Dec 2015

There is a lot of excitement about the RMB’s having become part of the SDR basket, and so I hate to say that we risk making much ado about what, at best, is unlikely to be a very big deal, at least in the short term. Foreign investor appetite for Chinese government bonds, or indeed most other Chi...

Guatemala: Presidential Mystery
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 02 Dec 2015

After a political campaign without formal discussions of his plans for governing, President-elect Jimmy Morales has not yet clearly communicated his priorities.Morales' task won’t be easy. He was invited to lead his party as a candidate, but was neither a party leader nor a politician – and so he...

Fiscal Results, Pension System and Politics
PANAMA · Report · 01 Dec 2015

The fiscal results to September 2015 released by the Ministry of Economy and Finance showed an overall deficit of the NFPS of $903 million (-2.3% of GDP[1]), smaller than last year’s (-5.8% of estimated GDP1). Although this figure represents sound public finance management, the main reason the de...

Turning Point?
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Dec 2015

New national accounts data brings encouraging news: though below consensus expectations, growth in Q3 was higher than in Q2. This is at least anecdotal evidence of a possible turnaround, especially if the trend persists. Growth was reported at 4.73% in Q3, up from 4.67% in Q2, though still dow...

The Fiscal Disaster and Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Nov 2015

There is little hope of any improvement in the fiscal picture: the most recent numbers reveal that over the past 12 months, the central government has accumulated a recurring deficit of more than 1% of GDP; the recession continues to erode revenues; and there is no political support for approval ...

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