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Monetary Tightening and Recession: What Does the Central Bank Want?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Jun 2015

At its last meeting, the COPOM decided to raise the SELIC rate by 50 basis points, to 13.75% a year. This decision was widely expected by the market, so it caused no surprise. But there was also an expectation of a change in the tone of the communiqué, indicating that the end of the tightening cy...

Start of the Big Game
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 Jun 2015

With the last regional elections ahead of the national parliamentary elections taking place in September 2015, a 2016 campaign is almost underway. A changed voting system, a five-year gap after the last Duma election and other factors make next year's election a decisive moment requiring great ef...

First cut on the Mexican mid-term elections
MEXICO · In Brief · 08 Jun 2015

The government seems to have won the midterm referendum. The Electoral Institute did a good job in organising the elections, amid problems in Guerrero and Oaxaca In the races for nine governor mansions, the three main parties seem to win something. The recent figure of an "independent candidate" ...

What happened on June 3?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Jun 2015

BCV's international reserves fell by $798 million on Wednesday, June 3. This sizeable decline left the markets at a loss. We were puzzled because, according to our daily calculations, the Bank’s cash holdings in FX would have dropped to a $10 million record low that day. On June 4, reserves rose ...

​First Update: Voters reject Erdogan at the ballot
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2015

I expected a close election, but that wasn’t it. AKP won an easy victory, but according to preliminary unofficial results fell roughly 20 seats short of the majority to form a single part government. Pro-Kurdish rights party HDP easily catapulted over the 10% qualifying hurdle, while CHP and to a...

A technical flaw in constructing the GDP deflator might be good news (sort of)
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 05 Jun 2015 · 2 responses

I've long argued that a non-disruptive adjustment would require that China's annual GDP growth decelerate by a minimum of 100-150 bps during the rebalancing period (which probably began in 2012). Reported GDP growth was 9.3% in 2011. In 2015-Q1 it had dropped to 7.0% year on year -- a sclerotic 2...

Politics: Last poll data before the election
MEXICO · Report · 05 Jun 2015

Executive Summary The last GEA-ISA poll, released on June 2, shows the electoral preferences with the PRI on top (35%), followed by the PAN (28%), the PRD (12%), the Green Party (7%) and Morena (6%). Of the smaller parties, the PT, PANAL, and Movimiento Ciudadano might keep their registration as ...

National Assembly convened on Saturday to amend the Constitution to allow re-election
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 04 Jun 2015

Last Tuesday, the House approved by a significant majority the bill that calls for a meeting of the National Assembly to discuss the proposal to amend the article of the Constitution which impedes a sitting President to run for re-election. The amendment proposed would allow a President to run fo...

The MNB are making another effort to chase money out of their balance sheet
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Jun 2015

No doubt, policy-makers at the central bank have been pushing the pedal hard in recent days. Just a few days following our previous post, which reacted to their base rate cut last week, they announced a reform of the MNB's monetary tools and mechanism yesterday, to take effect in three months fro...

May Inflation: Food Down, Core Up...
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2015

Consumer price inflation came in at 0.56% in May, broadly in line with expectations, which meant an increase in the 12-month rate to 8.1% from 7.9% a month earlier. Domestic-PPI also rose to 6.5%, from 4.8%, largely reflecting a reversal of favorable cost-push factors (Table 1; Graphs 1-2). Food ...

Economic Climb, Interrupted
MEXICO · Report · 03 Jun 2015

Executive SummaryWith international oil prices on the upswing, and the possibility of a U.S. slowdown looking more remote, some early-year economic risks have evaporated. Yet other risks are emerging – the biggest of them employers' deteriorating economic expectations.Two other factors we will so...

No Clear Way Out
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Jun 2015

Executive SummaryNicolás Maduro faces a severe political crisis that, if unaddressed, could further destabilize the country and drag down the economy. Pressures on his government include a wave of organized criminal violence, proliferating black markets for basic goods, terrible poll numbers, U.S...

Week of June 1
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2015

Thursday's holiday will reduce activity in Congress. Expectations are rising regarding the report on the payroll tax exemption bill. In the economy, we highlight the Central Bank's decision on interest rates and the announcement of the 2015-2016 Harvest Plan.House debates payroll tax exemptionsRe...

GDP in the First Quarter: the Recession is Deepening
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jun 2015

GDP in the first quarter of 2015 contracted by 0.2%, which was less than the consensus projections. Still, there are no reasons for optimism. On the demand side, after many years of steady growth, there was a sharp drop in household consumption, and on the supply side, besides the fall in GDP in ...

A Pre-Election Recap
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2015

Executive SummaryOn the eve of general elections, there is fear in AKP ranks, loathing for the party among the opposition parties and an expectation of great surprises among so-called experts like us. While final polls indicate a razor-thin victory for AKP in terms of the seats, the trepidation i...

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