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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Looking for Drivers
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryFinancial markets were roiled last week as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and other officials spoke more explicitly about tapering off their quantitative easing – which currently consists of USD 85 billion in bond purchases each month – sometime later this year, and comple...

Complications on the Reform Front
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThe divisions within the National Action Party (PAN) grew more intense last week as a majority of its senate members rebelled against efforts by the national leadership to impose discipline. The skirmish suggested PAN Chairman Gustavo Madero may be failing in his effort to exert ...

The Weakening of the Real
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThe real has been depreciating. Two forces behind this movement come from the world economy. First, the United States has entered a sustained phase of growth greater than that of other industrialized countries, while emerging countries are experiencing deceleration. This is tendi...

Costa Rica's Rate Slash
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryAfter discovering that a data error had accidentally inflated the Monthly Index of Economic Activity, Costa Rica's Central Bank quickly cut its policy rate by a full 100 basis points, to 4%. Everyone could already see the economy slowing: first in non free trade zone activities, ...

Weekly Tracker: June 23-29
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryWe know our readers have their hands full with bigger issues like China, Brazil and the QE exit, so to save on reading time, we summarized our baseline political scenarios in light of some FAQs:Gezi Parki and related demonstrations: 55% chance they will wind down over the summer,...

Constitutional Chamber will hear all Electoral Impugnation Cases
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2013

The Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ), headed by Gladys Ramirez, president of TSJ, announced its decision to hear all the cases related to the impugnation of the 14 April 2013 presidential election, until now in the hands of the Electoral Chamber.Henrique Capriles we...

CNI/IBOPE: Research Conducted Before the Start of the Demonstrations Showed A Fall in President Rousseff’s Popularity
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThe latest research from CNI/IBOPE, conducted before the outbreak of demonstrations across the country that began on June 13, showed a decline in the positive evaluation of Dilma Rousseff's government, with approval falling from 63% to 55%. Furthermore, for the first time since D...

The Currency Account Deficit Tapers
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Jun 2013

According to the quarterly bulletin of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the deficit on the current account narrowed in the first quarter of 2013, an indication of a resurgence in export activity. Consequently, the ratio of the current account balance to the gross domestic product was-5.8% i...

MPC: Most Predictable in a Long Time
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jun 2013

The Monetary Policy Committee left all rates as well as all other levers of monetary policy (reserve ratios, ROCs, etc.) untouched, exactly in line with the consensus (see graph). The statement was also the plainest we've read in a long time.As before, the Bank reiterated that domestic demand is ...

Creeping Poverty
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryLast week, Mexico's federal government announced that it intends to issue one trillion pesos (roughly USD 78.8 billion) in loans through the country's development banks over the course of 2013. Officials report that this sum would mark a real 10% increase in such credit compared ...

The Political Prize of the Economy
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThe poor showing of the Mexican economy during the first months of the year could have significant political repercussions as voters prepare to head to the polls in 14 states this July 7. The wave of optimism the PRI was riding as it took office last December – polls at the time ...

A Wave of Demonstrations Threatens the Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jun 2013

A series of demonstrations that began in São Paulo last week, originally against the readjustment of bus fares, is growing in size as it spreads across the country. On Monday night, according to the Datafolha Institute, about 65,000 people attended the demonstration in Brasilia. In Rio de Janeiro...

CBT Unlikely to Change Rates
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Jun 2013

Small scale clashes lasted throughout the night across Turkey. A sympathy strike by left-leaning unions and professional associations drew in crowds, but excitement was notably lacking. These are critical days, if the protests wind down under their own weight, fine. The markets are likely to forg...

Investments: Beware of Over-optimism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jun 2013

The data for the first quarter of 2013 show that the deceleration of GDP growth came from slower growth of household consumption and increased net imports. The positive surprise was fixed capital investments. The monthly figures on production of capital goods and construction materials, and the q...

Weekly Tracker: Week of June 16-22
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryPrime Minister Erdogan's order for police to forcefully vacate the Gezi Parki prolonged the crisis, turning into an uprising by various segments of the society.The most likely summer scenario, unfortunately, seems to be a continuation of unrest.It is also not feasible to deliver ...

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