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MPC: On Hold, Looking…
TURKEY · Report · 23 Oct 2014

In line with the consensus view, the MPC left all interest rates unchanged today, as it had done in the previous meeting (see graph). The statement was also virtually identical to the previous one, except one small change on the inflation outlook in a more dovish direction. The reference to benig...

Updated Survey Results: Poroshenko Leads, Some Changes in Support of Other parties
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Oct 2014

Yesterday fresh sociology was released on political parties’ ratings. In general the picture did not change much for Block of Petro Poroshenko as well as for Radical party of Oleg Liashko; however, we see significant changes in support of other parties. In particular, it looks like Arseniy Yatsen...

The fiscal status quo for 2015: more taxes, more populism, little reform
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Oct 2014

Fact: The draft budget for 2015 is not publicly known yet. This is normal in an election year, when the legal deadline for the draft’s delivery to parliament is end-October. But the draft is now at the Fiscal Council for preliminary assessment, implying that the usual leaks have started, followed...

Bad Mood
CHILE · Report · 22 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Most analysts expect the third quarter to be the bottom of the cycle, and the economy to start slowly recovering by year-end. But pessimism is everywhere. The Monthly Index of Business Confidence (IMCE) is at a historical minimum. Consumers do not seem to be very optimistic, ...

Court to Decide Fate of Ballot Initiatives
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Last week, the National Electoral Institute (INE) announced that the four political parties that proposed ballot initiatives for next year had all managed to collect the minimum number of valid signatures needed (at least 2% of all registered voters or around 1.6 million signatu...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2014

Race Still Open despite Dilma’s Numerical Advantage Three polls released this Monday (MDA, Datafolha and Vox Populi) brought good news for President Dilma Rousseff (PT).Dilma has taken over the numerical lead (according to MDA, she has a 1-point lead; Datafolha and Vox Populi give the president a...

Election Poll Schedule
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2014

Below, for your guidance, is a table with the eight voting intention presidential polls scheduled to be released this week.

Parliament Elections 2014: Presidential Majority Looks Secure
UKRAINE · Report · 21 Oct 2014

Next weekend (October 26) Ukraine will conduct early parliament elections.To a large extent all surveys give strong political support to the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko; however, it is unclear with whom he will be comprising his alliance. Many voters (including ourselves) have not decided for whom t...

Interesting Times, Dull Forecasts
TURKEY · Forecast · 20 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryAs we approach the end of another year of “rebalancing”, like in 2012, the absence of a secular narrative and the sense of “stuckness” in Turkey’s macro outlook are becoming all the more apparent. We think this has been vividly illustrated by the government’s recently released Me...

Energy Reform Faces New Hurdles
MEXICO · Report · 20 Oct 2014

Executive Summary In recent weeks progress has been made in the implementation of the country’s energy reform thanks to passage earlier this year of implementing laws, whose main objectives, contents and characteristics were discussed in detail in two special reports that were published on August...

Political Insights: Week of October 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2014

A decisive week in Congress for the elections for president of the Republic and governor in 13 states and the Federal District.Eight presidential polls will be published this week.The final presidential debate is scheduled on TV Globo, for Friday, October 24, the last day of free electoral advert...

Despondent Outlook for the World Economy and the Reflections in Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Oct 2014

There is a climate of despondency in the global economy. Political disturbances have been heightening investors’ risk aversion, triggering a decline in the quotations of 10-year Treasuries. Along with this, concerns have been growing over the risks of deceleration of the international economy. Th...

Weekly Tracker: October 19-25
TURKEY · Report · 19 Oct 2014

Executive Summary This week’s Tracker consists of a brief overview of the latest data releases, a preview of the upcoming MPC meeting and a lengthy essay by the wily Cosmic Strategist. On the political side, there is not much to add to what we’ve already said during the week. Please take a look a...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2014

Heated debate on SBT was positive for Aécio Aécio Neves (PSDB) fared better than Dilma Rousseff (PT) in the debate aired yesterday on SBT.Unlike the TV Bandeirantes (Oct. 14) debate, when he was on the defensive, Aécio was able to explore issues on the economic agenda (increased inflation and low...

The Exorbitant Burden and The Scariest Graph in The World
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Oct 2014

Last year I presented in this newsletter what I called “the scariest graph in the world”. It showed how some EU policymakers were expecting Europe to rebalance demand. The graph showed Europe’s current account surplus surging to 2-6% of Europe’s GDP. In the newsletter I argued that this “solution...

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