Country Analysts

Andrés Velasco
Former Finance Minister
Igal Magendzo
Former Manager of Macro Analysis, Central Bank
Robert Funk
Former President, Political Science Association

In The News


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Recent Country Insights

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Cabinet reshuffle unlikely to improve economic prospects
CHILE - Report 25 Jun 2019
When President Sebastián Piñera took office in March 2018, consensus expectations for 2019 GDP growth stood at 3.7%, up from 3% a year before. But expectations have been sinking since September 2018. Central Bank forecasts have registered similar falling optimism. Is this the end of the Piñera ef...

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​The state of the union is… worried.
CHILE - In Brief 09 Jun 2019
When Chilean presidents deliver their annual state of the union speech, they usually list the achievements of the previous year, and announce policies to come. The standard line is, ‘we have achieved much, and there is much left to do’. When President Sebastian Piñera delivered his annual state o...

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Central Bank Rate Drop
CHILE - In Brief 09 Jun 2019
In a quite unprecedented and surprising move, the Central Bank decided to cut the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) by 50 bp last week, taking it to 2.5%. Pretty much every market analyst, according to Bloomberg’s Survey, expected the Central Bank to keep the rate unchanged. The same was implicit in the...

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CHILE - Report 26 Apr 2019
The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) showed unfavorable results in February, although we should not rush to pessimistic conclusions. Excluding the mining sector, the IMACEC expanded a modest 2.4%, but above the 1.4% for total IMACEC. Yet the trend in the seasonally adjusted IMACEC that...

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Going with the Flow
CHILE - Report 15 Mar 2019
Economic activity in 2018 ended on a rather negative note. Activity re-accelerated in Q4, especially in non-mining, though growth velocity was well below that of H1. In January 2019, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity was hurt by very unusual and heavy rains in the Atacama Desert, supposedly ...

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Volatility and slowdown, as Piñera’s honeymoon ends
CHILE - Report 17 Jan 2019
Economic activity varied greatly from half to half in 2018, with H1 growth running at 5%, and signs of recovery in machinery and investment. But H2 saw deceleration, with activity and consumption growth slowing in Q3.Today the economy seems to be growing at 3%, and we expect 2018 GDP growth to co...

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Cautious and gradual
CHILE - Report 11 Dec 2018
Central Bank national accounts for Q3 show that economic activity has slowed significantly. This marks the end of the cyclical recovery. Consumption showed a clear and protracted deceleration, while investment remained relatively dynamic. Exports rebounded, after a slump of a similar magnitude in...

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Bye-bye, cyclical recovery.
CHILE - Report 30 Oct 2018
The Central Bank has raised the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) to 2.75%, after keeping it at 2.5% for 17 months. The Bank will likely raise the TPM another 25 bp in the next RPM in December. More importantly, the Bank says that, under the base scenario, it will bring the TPM to at least 4% by 2020. ...

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The hawks are out
CHILE - Report 19 Sep 2018
The Central Bank’s September Monetary Policy Report (IPOM) was surprisingly hawkish. It stated that the upward cycle would begin “in coming months,” implying in either mid-October or early December. The Bank’s base scenario is that the monetary policy interest rate will be between 4% and 4.5% dur...

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