CHILE
Analysts
Robert Funk
Former President, Political Science Association
Igal Magendzo
Former Manager of Macro Analysis, Central Bank
Andrés Velasco
Former Finance MinisterDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Chile: Progressive policy creep
CHILE · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024
It seems that Boric has stopped trying to appeal to the center. His popularity—forever stuck in the 25-30% range—is unlikely to rise, or fall. Looking ahead, Boric told his cabinet, “In the remaining two years of government, (we need) not to make promises, (but) to fulfill them.” Boric, like most...
February CPI and monetary policy implications
CHILE · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024
The second CPI under the newly-designed basket surprised on the upside again, confirming that the new basket inherited the old basket’s volatility. Some of the problem might be attributed to the volatility of the exchange rate and international prices, but this would only affect a limited part of...
When the music's over
CHILE · Report · 04 Mar 2024 · 1 response
The Central Bank took a significant step in January, by reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) by 100bp and adjusting its baseline scenario to a more accelerated convergence towards the neutral level. The new timeline for the TPM's convergence to its neutral level is set for the second half of 2...
Fires and pensions: When it doesn’t rain it pours
CHILE · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024 · 1 response
It is not uncommon for the Chilean summer to be fairly dry. The country’s central valley barely sees a drop of rain between the months of November and March. As the winters have got drier as well, summer wildfires have become more common. In recent days, several fires have appeared around the cou...
Post-COVID fatigue
CHILE · Report · 28 Dec 2023 · 1 response
The latest Central Bank Monetary Policy Report offers a surprisingly positive outlook for economic activity. But, in our view, activity remains stagnant. The only good news comes from the construction sector, which appears to be at a potential turning point, after hitting historical lows. The ind...
Looking beyond the Chile’s constitutional moment
CHILE · In Brief · 17 Dec 2023
On Sunday, for the second time in as many years, Chileans have voted on a constitutional proposal designed by a democratically elected assembly. And for the second time, they have rejected it, with 55.8% against, versus 44.2% voting in favor. Whereas the 2022 proposal seemed to be far more progre...
Waiting for a new constitution
CHILE · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023
The results of Sunday’s constitutional referendum are anyone’s guess. Most polls have consistently showed that Chileans will reject the most recent proposal. But four years after the 2019 protests which led to a seemingly endless constitutional debate, there is a sense of constitutional and elect...
Fear of floating vs. fear of falling
CHILE · Report · 01 Nov 2023 · 3 responses
The August IMACEC delivered a pretty big surprise -- and not a good one. Beyond the monthly volatility, economic activity has remained stagnant since late 2022, and the output gap continues to narrow. In August, retail sales recorded a negative monthly change for the eighth consecutive month. In ...
Monetary policy update: A return to caution
CHILE · Report · 08 Sep 2023
The September Monetary Policy Report (IPOM) returns to the cautious tone that prevailed prior to July’s Monetary Policy Meeting (RPM). The June CPI led to accelerating cuts, but now the July CPI and the recent depreciation of the exchange rate have caused increased caution, and a slowdown in the ...