Country Analysts

Andrés Velasco
Former Finance Minister
Igal Magendzo
Former Manager of Macro Analysis, Central Bank
Robert Funk
Former President, Political Science Association

In The News


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Recent Country Insights

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CHILE - Report 26 Apr 2019
The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) showed unfavorable results in February, although we should not rush to pessimistic conclusions. Excluding the mining sector, the IMACEC expanded a modest 2.4%, but above the 1.4% for total IMACEC. Yet the trend in the seasonally adjusted IMACEC that...

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Going with the Flow
CHILE - Report 15 Mar 2019
Economic activity in 2018 ended on a rather negative note. Activity re-accelerated in Q4, especially in non-mining, though growth velocity was well below that of H1. In January 2019, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity was hurt by very unusual and heavy rains in the Atacama Desert, supposedly ...

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Volatility and slowdown, as Piñera’s honeymoon ends
CHILE - Report 17 Jan 2019
Economic activity varied greatly from half to half in 2018, with H1 growth running at 5%, and signs of recovery in machinery and investment. But H2 saw deceleration, with activity and consumption growth slowing in Q3.Today the economy seems to be growing at 3%, and we expect 2018 GDP growth to co...

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Cautious and gradual
CHILE - Report 11 Dec 2018
Central Bank national accounts for Q3 show that economic activity has slowed significantly. This marks the end of the cyclical recovery. Consumption showed a clear and protracted deceleration, while investment remained relatively dynamic. Exports rebounded, after a slump of a similar magnitude in...

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Bye-bye, cyclical recovery.
CHILE - Report 30 Oct 2018
The Central Bank has raised the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) to 2.75%, after keeping it at 2.5% for 17 months. The Bank will likely raise the TPM another 25 bp in the next RPM in December. More importantly, the Bank says that, under the base scenario, it will bring the TPM to at least 4% by 2020. ...

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The hawks are out
CHILE - Report 19 Sep 2018
The Central Bank’s September Monetary Policy Report (IPOM) was surprisingly hawkish. It stated that the upward cycle would begin “in coming months,” implying in either mid-October or early December. The Bank’s base scenario is that the monetary policy interest rate will be between 4% and 4.5% dur...

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Piñera’s tax ‟reintegration”
CHILE - Report 27 Aug 2018
One would have thought that Sebastián Piñera would have been much more eager to fix those aspects of Bachelet's reforms that were thought to be so negative for the Chilean economy. Indeed, it is striking that the economy has grown as it has given that all those damaging policies, which some feare...

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CHILE: Cabinet Shuffle
CHILE - In Brief 09 Aug 2018
Although he only shuffled three cabinet posts on Thursday, Chilean President Sebastián Piñera sent a broader message; he is admitting that the honeymoon is over.The two ministers to go were Education Minister Gerardo Varela and Culture Minister Alejandra Perez. Environment Minister Marcela Cubill...

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A clear road ahead
CHILE - Report 01 Aug 2018
In July, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) once again surprised markets on the upside. Expectations for GDP growth continue to improve – this, despite that in May, the 12-month variation of retail sales fell sharply, coming in below the expectations of even the most pessimistic anal...

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