CHILE

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Country Analysts

Andrés Velasco
Former Finance Minister
Igal Magendzo
Former Manager of Macro Analysis, Central Bank
Robert Funk
Former President, Political Science Association

In The News

Databank

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Recent Country Insights

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Volatility and slowdown, as Piñera’s honeymoon ends
CHILE - Report 17 Jan 2019
Executive Summary Economic activity varied greatly from half to half in 2018, with H1 growth running at 5%, and signs of recovery in machinery and investment. But H2 saw deceleration, with activity and consumption growth slowing in Q3.Today the economy seems to be growing at 3%, and we expect 201...

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Cautious and gradual
CHILE - Report 11 Dec 2018
Executive Summary Central Bank national accounts for Q3 show that economic activity has slowed significantly. This marks the end of the cyclical recovery. Consumption showed a clear and protracted deceleration, while investment remained relatively dynamic. Exports rebounded, after a slump of a si...

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Bye-bye, cyclical recovery.
CHILE - Report 30 Oct 2018
Executive Summary The Central Bank has raised the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) to 2.75%, after keeping it at 2.5% for 17 months. The Bank will likely raise the TPM another 25 bp in the next RPM in December. More importantly, the Bank says that, under the base scenario, it will bring the TPM to at l...

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The hawks are out
CHILE - Report 19 Sep 2018
Executive Summary The Central Bank’s September Monetary Policy Report (IPOM) was surprisingly hawkish. It stated that the upward cycle would begin “in coming months,” implying in either mid-October or early December. The Bank’s base scenario is that the monetary policy interest rate will be betwe...

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Piñera’s tax ‟reintegration”
CHILE - Report 27 Aug 2018
Michelle Bachelet’s 2014 tax reform put an end to a system that integrated personal and corporate taxes. Before the reform, corporations paid taxes first on their profits, and then, after dividends were paid, recipients could use 100% of the tax previously paid by the firm as a tax credit. Becaus...

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CHILE: Cabinet Shuffle
CHILE - In Brief 09 Aug 2018
Although he only shuffled three cabinet posts on Thursday, Chilean President Sebastián Piñera sent a broader message; he is admitting that the honeymoon is over.The two ministers to go were Education Minister Gerardo Varela and Culture Minister Alejandra Perez. Environment Minister Marcela Cubill...

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A clear road ahead
CHILE - Report 01 Aug 2018
Executive summary In July, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) once again surprised markets on the upside. Expectations for GDP growth continue to improve – this, despite that in May, the 12-month variation of retail sales fell sharply, coming in below the expectations of even the mos...

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Transiting from depression to euphoria
CHILE - Report 25 Jun 2018
Executive Summary The Central Bank’s June Monetary Policy Report was more hawkish than that of March. The Central Bank is preparing the market for the next cycle of monetary policy tightening, which should start before year-end. Perhaps the most relevant point was a downplay of the risk of a non-...

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The first half of the game is almost over
CHILE - Report 23 May 2018
Executive Summary The Monthly Index of Economic Activity delivered some good news in March – even though its growth was strongly favored by the low comparison base in mining. And business confidence was positive for the fourth consecutive month. Industrial production continued to disappoint. Thou...