CHILE
Analysts
Robert Funk
Former President, Political Science Association
Igal Magendzo
Former Manager of Macro Analysis, Central Bank
Andrés Velasco
Former Finance MinisterDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Cherries, tourists, tariffs and expectations
CHILE · Report · 07 Apr 2025
A breeze of optimism has swept across Chile. According to the national accounts, GDP grew by 2.6% in 2024. Still, we are not revising our baseline 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025 just yet. Several factors prompt caution. First, statistical distortions have been at work. Second, some temporary dri...
Chilean presidential elections: Tohá in, Bachelet out
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Mar 2025
With the end of the antipodean summer comes the start of the school year in Chile. The days get shorter, traffic gets worse, and presidential candidates begin to position themselves. While on the center-right Evelyn Matthei has been a fairly official candidate – and has been leading in the polls ...
Spring shoots in autumn?
CHILE · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response
The economy appears to be gaining momentum. Three consecutive months of positive variation in the IMACEC marks a clear shift away from a prolonged period of stagnation, and supports the 2% growth being forecast for 2025. The economy now appears poised to expand at a pace closer to its potential. ...
A pension deal? Political wrinkles and potential economic impact
CHILE · Report · 28 Jan 2025
The summer break is well underway in Chile. And by the time things gear up again in March, the presidential and congressional election campaigns will be as well. Primaries, to be held at the end of June, are now less than six months away. Recall that presidential and congressional elections will ...
What to Expect from the Monetary Policy Meeting
CHILE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2024 · 1 response
For the Monetary Policy Meeting (RPM), I remain undecided regarding the decision (50/50 between -25pb and no cut). Arguments in favor of a 25bp cut: Macroeconomic analysis indicates that the Central Bank has plenty of room to continue reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM). Market expectations a...
Signs, bridging fissures
CHILE · Report · 29 Nov 2024 · 1 response
The seasonally-adjusted IMACEC saw a steep monthly contraction in September, primarily due to an unusually high concentration of holidays. This year’s atypical seasonality is particularly evident in manufacturing data. Beyond monthly volatility, the underlying trends point to stagnation. While 12...
Chile's local elections: Implications
CHILE · In Brief · 28 Oct 2024
A year out from its next presidential vote, Chile held elections on Sunday for local authorities. These include governors, mayors and city council members. Local elections are seen as a barometer of political strength. On Sunday night President Gabriel Boric said that the results were “sweet and ...
Volatility and divergence
CHILE · Report · 23 Oct 2024
Economic activity has been characterized by significant volatility, and uneven performance across sectors. Data related to consumption, including commerce, services and taxes on products, remain largely stagnant. Investment-related data also reveal limited dynamism. But manufacturing experienced ...
Change of mind
CHILE · Report · 13 Sep 2024
The significant expansion of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) in July should be taken with a grain of salt. Recent data show increased volatility. These wide swings were primarily driven by successive one-off events. Everything points to a likely reversion in the IMACEC in coming m...