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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Signs of slowing growth; growth pessimism regarding a cease-fire
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 May 2024

Geopolitics: Expectations regarding a possible cease-fire continue to shift from some optimism to recently more pessimism, as Netanyahu refuses to agree to the end of the operation and total withdrawal from Gaza. Israel is preparing for an operation in Rafah, or at least pressure Hamas to agree t...

Diplomatic stand-off between the Philippines and China
PHILIPPINES · Report · 06 May 2024

The economic implications of the maritime and diplomatic stand-off between the Philippines and China cannot be overemphasized. Since the Philippines is expected to continue documenting and exposing similar attempts of China to expand its territories, and China would invariably deny them, the sign...

Spring is in the air
TURKEY · Report · 05 May 2024 · 1 response

In this econ-only Tracker, we provide a quick rundown of the past week’s data releases and developments. Growth indicators softened somewhat in April, while both March final and April preliminary trade data pointed to a visible deterioration in the core trade balance. As an aside, Turkey halte...

Georgia rocked by protest against foreign agents' bill
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 May 2024

In May 2024 there were ongoing protests in Tbilisi attended by tens of thousands of people. This is enormous in a country of 5 million people. Some demonstrators combined their protest with attending the Orthodox Easter vigil. Some say the bill is reminiscent of Russia's Foreign Agent Law. The po...

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan tell their people: do not go to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 May 2024

On May 2 Kyrgyzstan made the announcement. Tajikistan did so on April 28, 2024. This is in the wake of the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack that killed 144 people. 11 Tajik men face trial for this.  Central Asians who go to Russia face intense questioning at border control and having their lugga...

Lower inflation a key to quieting business fears
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 May 2024

By this time, many publicly-listed companies in the Philippines have held or about to hold their annual shareholders’ meeting to report on the previous year’s business performance. So far, the reports were more than encouraging with earnings beating the previous year’s post-pandemic record. Their...

Will sanctions against Chinese banks work?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 May 2024

The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. is considering imposing sanctions on Chinese banks that are supporting the export of goods to for Russia’s war in Ukraine. The State Department has denied the reports but it would be logical for the U.S. to use its dominance of the US dollar financia...

France and the UK taking bigger risks to aid Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 May 2024

On May 2 the President of France said that his country might send troops to Ukraine if Russia broke through Ukrainian lines and Kyiv requested such help. Since early 2024 President Macron has mooted the possibility of Western troops in Ukraine. But most NATO countries said they will never deploy ...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE boosts oil capacity, ADQ’s inaugural bond, Saudi non-oil growth slows, Oman awards green hydrogen blocks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 May 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil had its worst week in six months, dipping by about -7% on weak data and worries about rates. * Another Gaza ceasefire/hostage deal is being considered, but Netanyahu says he will assault Rafah anyway. * S&P warns that...

Webinar Replay: Panama and Dominican Republic Elections Outlook
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 03 May 2024

How will Panama and the Dominican Republic's 2024 elections play out, both in terms of their presidencies and the composition of their legislating bodies? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Panama and the Dominican Republic's upcoming elections and how they will shape t...

Inflation back to a monthly pace of circ. 3%
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2024

Consumer prices increased by 3.2%, m/m, in April, somewhat lower than consensus, with the 12-month rate rising further to 69.8% from 68.5% in March. Domestic-PPI inflation posted 3.6%, which drove the 12-month rate to 55.7% from 51.5% a month earlier, as the PPI-CPI inflation gap, though remains ...

The São Paulo City Council approved the privatization of Sabesp, next week will be busy in Brasilia, and Congress is expected to vote on presidential vetoes next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 May 2024

The São Paulo City Council approved the bill that authorizes it to join the privatization of Sabesp, the state company responsible for water and sewage services in the city. There were 37 votes in favor and 17 against. Next week will be busy in Brasília. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (P...

Essential CIS Politics: May 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 May 2024

* Russia has gained ground in Ukraine and hit cities with drones and missiles. * Ukraine passed a law allowing more men to be drafted. * Russian peacekeepers are leaving Armenia as the country improves relations with Azerbaijan by ceding land. * Georgia passes foreign agents’ law despite ...

Moody’s increased the outlook for Brazil's sovereign debt from stable to positive, Lula broke electoral rules by calling for his supporters to vote for Boulos in São Paulo, and the São Paulo City Council votes on the Sabesp privatization
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 May 2024

Yesterday, the rating agency Moody's raised the outlook for Brazil's medium and long-term sovereign debt from stable to positive. The company, however, maintained its long-term issuer and unsecured government bond ratings at Ba2. Yesterday, trade unions organized an event for Labor Day. Lula expl...

Current account deficit narrowed in 1Q24
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 May 2024

According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the current account narrowed in 1Q24 to about $0.89 bn, while in 2023 its quarterly deficit varied from $1.6 bn to $3.4 bn. According to recent revisions the current account deficit reached almost $8.66 bn last year.In 1Q24, the trade surplus accounte...

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