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South Africa Reacts to Faltering Growth Momentum
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Jul 2013

An African National Congress (ANC) National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting resolved this week to set up a Presidential Task Team on the economy, with a view to arrest the faltering growth momentum. The South African economy has been bedeviled by the weak global economic environment as well as ...

South Africa Reacts to Faltering Growth Momentum
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Jul 2013

An African National Congress (ANC) National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting resolved this week to set up a Presidential Task Team on the economy, with a view to arrest the faltering growth momentum. The South African economy has been bedeviled by the weak global economic environment as well as ...

The Party’s Over…but the music still sounds
PANAMA · Forecast · 23 Jul 2013

Executive SummaryGrowth has lost its double-digit momentum for the first time in nearly two years, coming in at 7% in Q1, down from 10% in Q4 2012. Falling services exports, weaker global growth and trade restrictions in Venezuela and Colombia have taken a toll, as has the end of the government i...

Middle Class Incomes Stagnate
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jul 2013

Executive Summary At the beginning of the week President Enrique Peña Nieto announced his Investment Program for Transportation and Telecommunications Infrastructure for 2013 to 2018. During the presentation, the President said his administration intends to spend roughly 4 trillion pesos on such ...

Our Dignity is not for Sale
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Jul 2013

Executive Summary Though Ecuador decided it wasn’t in its best interest to provide political asylum for fugitive American intelligence contractor Edward Snowden, the damage to Ecuador’s trade relations with the United States has been done. Fifteen products, or 17% of Ecuador’s non-oil exports, wi...

The Pact Changes Course
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The state and municipal elections held on July 7 appear to have ushered in a new phase in the life of the Pact for Mexico. The two main opposition parties, PAN and PRD, have stepped up their accusations about improper use of public funds during the campaign in violation of the a...

Trilemma Optimization Continues
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2013

The Monetary Policy Committee raised the O/N lending rate by 75 bps to 7.25%, and left the other two rates -- the weekly policy and O/N borrowing rates -- unchanged, thereby widening the O/N corridor (see graph).The Bank also kept the ROCs and RRRs unchanged. The move is broadly in line with the ...

SONA: Unsonorous But Sound
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Jul 2013

The annual reporting must have become a chore by now and it showed in a bland speech lasting almost two hours. Hailed by supporters but slammed by critics, President Benigno Aquino’s midterm State of the Nation Address (SONA) yesterday before a joint session of the 16th Congress was in substance ...

Week of July 22: Political Insights
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The main event of the week is Pope Francis’s visit to Brazil. In other news, the government is monitoring social media to identify possible protests leading up to World Youth Day on July 28.Regarding the economy, we highlight the announcement of budget cuts of approximately R$ 1...

A new quasi-currency?
ARGENTINA · Report · 22 Jul 2013

Executive SummaryThe latest deterioration of the current account surplus and the need to continue using reserves to substitute instrumented debt amortization with inflation tax, has again triggered some new policies from the government. Among them are the tax amnesty and the acceptance that YPF r...

Weekly Tracker: July 21-27
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jul 2013

Executive Summary We opted for a different format in this Tracker, because of a short break our political analyst-cum-cosmic strategist had to take. After briefly highlighting a few important political developments of the past week, we provide our economic commentary as usual. Syrian border troub...

South African Economy: Weekly Review and Outlook
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 19 Jul 2013

The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the repo rate unchanged yesterday highlights the fact that monetary policy in South Africa has become largely dormant. With economic growth forecasts revised downwards – due to electricity supply constraints as well as other domestic and global f...

Costa Rica: Rainy Weather
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 19 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The economic outlook for Costa Rica looks bleak.With early-year production figures revised downward, the economy is on track to grow just 2.5%, its slowest since 2009, and just 50% of last year’s growth rate.We forecast the fiscal deficit at 5.4% of nominal GDP, up from 4.4% rec...

The Benchmark Interest Rate Remains Unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Jul 2013

Despite indications of increasing upside risks to the inflation outlook, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today opted to maintain the repo rate at 5.0% per year. The sluggish growth environment – with the inflation adjusted gross domestic product growing at a seasonally adjusted annualized r...

Spending Struggles
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 17 Jul 2013

Executive Summary Inflation is still under control, despite expansionary monetary policies that have lowered interest rates. Inflation was 4.8% y/y in June, still within the 4%-6% target range, and down from May 2012-May 2013. But the DOP abruptly and mysteriously devalued, to 42 to the dollar on...

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