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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political Insights: Week of August 27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Aug 2013

Two items on the economic agenda will dominate the week:on Wednesday, the Central Bank is expected to announce another increase in the basic interest rate (Selic), and on Friday, the IBGE releases the second quarter GDP results. Dilma’s popularity increases to 38% The latest poll by the Ibope Ins...

Intervention in Syria, headaches in Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2013

After the press conference by Secretary of State Kerry, where he accused Assad of using chemical weapons without a shred of doubt, the world began to take the threat of a NATO-led intervention in Syria more seriously. Pentagon let it be known, that if such a campaign were to happen, its aims will...

Basci Disappoints those Expecting a Hawkish Message
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2013

Today's TV appearance by CBT Governor Basci, which was announced last night, was targeted at improving the predictability of monetary policy, as Governor himself stated it.  The market was mainly focused on the future course of monetary policy, expecting the Governor to send hawkish messages to c...

Taking stock of last week's Sicad auction
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 26 Aug 2013

By announcing it would award 2035 Pdvsa bonds in the Sicad auction, BCV created the expectation of actual delivery of the bond to companies. In reality, BCV sold the bonds in the market and is awarding dollars. Reference to the market value of the bonds ($239.8 million, 79.9%) in BCV’s notice on ...

Heat Wave Warms the Economy
CHINA · Report · 26 Aug 2013

Executive Summary The vast lands of central and southern China have been hit by heat waves this summer, with recorded temperatures at their highest since 1951. As an unexpected consequence, the economy warmed up, too. Trade rallied significantly. Commodity exports rose 5.1% y/y in July, aft...

Inflation, Exchange Rate and the COPOM
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Aug 2013

The COPOM will meet this week to decide on the new increment of the SELIC rate. A few days ago, in response to the upward shift in the yield curve reflecting the higher perceived probability of an impending hike of 75 basis points, Mr. Tombini hastily declared that “the yield curve has an excessi...

Still Slowing, with Construction and Communications at the Force
ECUADOR · Forecast · 26 Aug 2013

Executive Summary The GDP growth slowdown that began in Q3 2011 persists, as the government is receiving lower oil revenues, and the economy is absorbing public investment less efficiently. The economy grew 4.8% y/y in Q4 2012, and 1.2% q/q – but in Q1 2013, growth rose just 0.2% q/q, and 3.5% y/...

Time to abolish PDAF
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Aug 2013

With that statement, President Aquino may have hoped to head off a potentially high-strung "Million People March" set on on Monday against a decades-old practice of allocating funds in government's annual budget to legislators for their pet projects. Officially tagged Priority Development Assista...

Guatemala: Keeping the Band-Aids On
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Aug 2013

Executive Summary Under our revised 2013-2014 outlook for the Guatemalan economy, real GDP is expected to grow 3%-3.5%; inflation will stay within the Bank of Guatemala´s target range of 3%-5%; and the quetzal will maintain a 7.9-8 per dollar value. The currency will be supported by a good intern...

Referendum on peace negotiations to coincide with 2014 elections
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 22 Aug 2013

President Santos presented a bill to Congress to call for a referendum allowing Colombians to vote in favor or against an eventual peace agreement with FARC. Even though such an agreement has not been announced yet (November is supposed to be the deadline), Mr. Santos has said that everything has...

A master class of political muscle *
MEXICO · In Brief · 22 Aug 2013

This week, the Mexican Congress is discussing in –an extraordinary session– the three secondary laws regarding the recent Constitutional amendments on education. These changes will bring tougher tests on teachers and will bring upon an autonomous institute in charge of evaluating their performanc...

Labor Market: Contradictory Signals
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Aug 2013

In July the unemployment rate was 5.6%, higher than the 5.4% in the previous month. However, in the seasonally adjusted series the rate remained stable at 5.6%. After correction for variations in the participation rate (the portion of the working age population that is working or looking for work...

No Fiscal Efforts in 2013
CHILE · Report · 22 Aug 2013

The government presented in Congress this month an update of its macroeconomic outlook for 2013 and its evaluation of the impact of this update on expected fiscal policy in 2013. Expected fiscal balance for 2013 was reduced from an initial fiscal deficit of 0.8% of GDP to one of 1.2% of GDP (note...

Stock Market Drop
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Aug 2013

The Philippine Stock Exchange index dropped by 6 pc today, after the market closed for three days on account of flooding and a holiday, playing catch down with peers in the region. Jakarta, KL and Thailand indexes suffered cumulative declines of 8.8 pc, 3.8 pc and 6.8 pc over four days since the ...

Party's Over
PERU · Forecast · 22 Aug 2013

Executive SummaryExport decline plus lower growth rate of domestic demand led to H1 GDP growth slowdown, to 5.1% y/y, from 6.3% in the same period in 2012 (and an average of 6.5% over the decade). We expect slower private investment expansion in H2, given weaker business confidence. But public sp...

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