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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Labor and Credit Markets Do Not Favor Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Sep 2013

Last week the data for August on the labor and credit markets were announced. The indications on both counts are that the growth of consumption will continue being lethargic. In August the unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in the seasonally adjusted series, but this does not mean the job market is g...

Unchanged Monetary Policy Stance
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 Sep 2013

Amidst greater financial market volatility and fund outflows from emerging markets, the Monetary Board of the BSP kept its overnight and special deposit account rates unchanged today.  The decision to maintain the overnight borrowing and lending rates at 3.5% and 5.5%, respectively and the SDA ra...

Retail Sales: Better Growth Than Expected
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Sep 2013

Real retail sales in July grew 1.9% in the restricted sense and 0.6% in the augmented concept, which includes cars and construction materials (Graph 1). The respective variations over the past 12 months were 6.0% and 3.7%. One of the reasons for the surprising result was the strong sales of furni...

Mexico's Expected Fiscal Reform
MEXICO · Report · 12 Sep 2013

Executive Summary The most significant news last week included the surprising rate cut announced by Mexico’s central bank on Friday. Banco de Mexico lowered its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest level since the key rate was introduced in early 2008. The last time the ...

Dilma’s Approval Rating Remains Stable
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2013

On Tuesday, September 10, CNT/MDA released a new poll on the approval rating of the Dilma Rousseff administration, conducted between August 31 and September 4. Approval of her government increased from 31.1% to 38.1% (7 percentage points). The CNT poll shows that the president’s popularity has st...

Peace for Another Time?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Sep 2013

In our Quarterly Report ("In a good place," Aug.. 8, 2013), we said that "bringing the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) fully into the fold" is a key activity for meeting a tight timetable for the peace process in Mindanao and the creation of a  Bangsamoro political entity before the end of ...

The Current Account Deficit Deteriorated in the Second Quarter of 2013
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Sep 2013

Figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) show that the current account balance deteriorated in the second quarter of 2013 (Q2 2013). The deficit on the current account increased from R190.9 billion in Q1 2013 to R216.2 billion in Q2 2013, partly due to weak export growth. A...

Government, stocks drive Q2 growth
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2013

Today’s Q2 GDP growth came in at 4.4%, y/y, which was higher than the consensus forecast of some 3.5%, and our even softer estimate of 2.5%. Growth was driven by private consumption, government spending (notably investment) and inventory build-up, all of which turned out fairly stronger than our ...

A Note on PKK and Gezi Parki Demonstrations
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Sep 2013

PKK suspended the withdrawal of its guerilla force from Turkey, accusing AKP of planning a war on Kurds. Essentially, the Peace Process is dead.  AKP’s much-advertised reform package is delayed and is unlikely to satisfy even the minimum of Kurdish demands. I don't expect a return to insurgency u...

On Q2 GDP Growth
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Sep 2013

Today’s Q2 GDP growth came in at 4.4%, y/y, which was higher than the consensus forecast of some 3.5%, and our even softer estimate of 2.5%. Growth was driven by private consumption, government spending (notably investment) and inventory build-up, all of which turned out fairly stronger than our ...

Uninspiring Export and FDI Data
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Sep 2013

For the second consecutive month exports continued to show positive but lackluster growth, inching up by 2.3% in July.  Electronic products, the country’s top export, saw its first positive yoy growth this year at 11.2 percent; however, the boost was due to base effect as electronics shipments po...

A Question of Strategic Timing
MEXICO · Report · 10 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Some moves in recent weeks by the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto in relation to its structural reform agenda may have been seen at the time as surrendering in the face of pressure from protesting social groups. The decision in late August to postpone a vote on th...

Petronas' Departure from Venezuela
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 09 Sep 2013 · 2 responses

According to Reuters, Malaysian state oil company Petronas announced it quit its participation in Petrocarabobo, a 400,000 b/d Orinoco Oil Belt project in which Petronas held 11%. The other partners are PDVSA (60%), Repsol (11%), ONGC Videsh (11%), Oil India (3.5%) and Indian Oil Corp (3.5%).  Pe...

Encouraging July Fiscal Numbers
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Sep 2013

There are a number of positive signals that can be gleaned from the July fiscal performance report, including: 1. Commendable increases in tax revenues, with BIR and BoC collections rising 20% and 13.5%, both above their first half growth rates of 14% and 1.2% respectively.  Coming from its flatt...

Political Insights: Week of September 9
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Sep 2013

All eyes are on the Supreme Court (STF), which may conclude the Mensalão (monthly payoff scandal) trial this week.On Monday, President Dilma Rousseff meets with allied leaders to discuss the presidential vetoes to be analyzed on September 17. The cycle of roadway concessions starts this week. CNT...

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