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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Trump Plans Could Hit Migration and FDI
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Nov 2016

Uncertainty over the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s economic decisions is high. If Trump makes good on his campaign promises, Central America will be negatively affected on several fronts. The main areas relate to migration, remittances, trade and foreign direct investment. ...

El Salvador: Fiscal Showdown
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Oct 2016

Intense political negotiations over fiscal issues are underway in El Salvador. Many analysts (us included) have anticipated a payment crisis for several months, as the opposition ARENA has refused back new borrowing. The party conditions its congressional support upon reaching consensus on a fisc...

Fiscal Questions Front and Center
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Sep 2016

El Salvador faces significant challenges for economic policy. In the short-term, fiscal sustainability requires immediate attention. The political debate is overshadowing fundamental discrepancies over the economic and social model. An economic, social and political pact is necessary to redefine ...

Guatemala: Showdown
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Aug 2016

The next 18 months will be crucial for Guatemala. The country has exited from major crisis mode, but still has not embarked upon an optimistic path. H1 had a “business as usual” feel. The economy grew just above 3.1% y/y in H1, with inflation within the Central Bank’s 3%-5% target range. The f...

COSTA RICA: The Central Bank Revises Its Macroeconomic Program for 2016-2017
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Aug 2016

As prescribed by law, the Central Bank announced the revision of its macroeconomic program for 2016-2017. We consider the Bank´s view relatively optimistic compared with the view presented in our July 28 Monthly Report, especially for 2017.

COSTA RICA: Deficit Solution Needed
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jul 2016

Our short-term outlook for Costa Rica calls for moderate growth with financial stability, but continued fiscal vulnerability. Recent developments suggest that the fiscal situation will be better than expected, though, as government revenues rose faster than spending. But the deficit is still larg...

Guatemala: No Surprises
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jun 2016

The IMF mission working on the Article IV report for Guatemala delivered no surprises. The team’s end-of-mission report, published at the end of May, expressed no worries with Guatemala’s short-term economic outlook, but reaffirmed its national structural problems. We agree with those findings. ...

Costa Rica: Hopeful Days
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 May 2016

Costa Rican politics have been interesting this month. On May 1st, an alliance of opposition parties retained control in Congress, after an agreement to order a fiscal discussion. New President of Congress Antonio Alvarez Desanti of the PLN (the largest party in Congress) has had a positive expe...

El Salvador: Still Awaiting Economic Dynamism
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Apr 2016

El Salvador seems destined to keep living with low economic dynamism. Despite the opportunities generated by a positive international environment, GDP growth is likely to continue running at 2%-2.5% y/y. As anticipated after 10 months in 2015 with negative inflation rates, deflationary risks are ...

Guatemala: Reverting to Normal
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Mar 2016

After a rollercoaster year, with the political situation driving the action, Guatemala seems to be normalizing. Back are the days when corruption scandals erupted almost every month, and people were calling for the resignation of President Pérez and Vice President Baldetti -- both now in prison,...

El Salvador: When it Comes to the Economy, We Disagree
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jan 2016

Recent government estimates of economic activity are controversial in the business sector, which complains that government is painting an inappropriately optimistic view of the economy. Businesspeople question whether growth based on private consumption financed by remittances, and by the tempora...

Costa Rica: The Central Bank´s Macroeconomic Program
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 08 Jan 2016

On January 5, the Central Bank of Costa Rica announced its Macroeconomic Program for 2016-2017. The Bank reaffirmed its long-term goal of keeping inflation at the average level of the country´s main trading partners. Taking advantage of the recent evolution of inflation, which closed the year in ...

Mixed Growth, Fragile Finances
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Dec 2015

Costa Rica is headed toward the second lowest GDP growth rate in the region, after El Salvador. Indicators show some improvement, though still suggest pessimism. The outlook for 2016 looks somewhat better: both imports and exports are on track to reverse their decreasing trend soon, as the effect...

Guatemala: Presidential Mystery
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 02 Dec 2015

After a political campaign without formal discussions of his plans for governing, President-elect Jimmy Morales has not yet clearly communicated his priorities.Morales' task won’t be easy. He was invited to lead his party as a candidate, but was neither a party leader nor a politician – and so he...

Costa Rica: Government Growth Plan Skirts Key Issues
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Oct 2015

President Luis Guillermo Solis’ growth plan includes an interest rate cut, but seems to address few key issues, concentrating instead on minor advances, and mostly silent on projected impacts or details needed to evaluate the results. Moreover, his announcement was vague on many points. Despite f...

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