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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Better Than We Hoped
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryPreliminary data suggests the economies of Costa Rica, Guatemala and El Salvador performed better than expected this year. The good behavior of the U.S. economy, and trajectory of commodity prices (mainly oil and its derivatives) during H2, helped lift external commerce, and sust...

Costa Rica: Budget Victories, at a Price
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryAfter almost three months of heated debate, Costa Rican President Luis Guillermo Solís got his 2015 budget approved, unchanged. Though this was a political victory, its second-round effects will be less favorable. The fight generated some casualties, even within the president’s o...

EL SALVADOR: Politics Hampering Economics
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryWe expect the next 15 months in El Salvador to be marked by slow growth, low inflation, and a high, if declining, current account deficit. The fiscal deficit will be stable but high, burdened by pension system financing demands. It is basically the same picture we’ve seen for the...

Guatemala: Short Term Stability, Long Term Challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 Sep 2014

In the short term, the outlook for Guatemala is stable. Growth is expected to be 3.5%-4% in 2014-2015, and inflation is projected to come in within the Bank of Guatemala’s 4.0% ± 1 p.p. target band. Exchange markets are not likely to be volatile, and fiscal and external imbalances will be fairly ...

Costa Rica: President’s Fiscal Approach a Risky Bet
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 02 Sep 2014

Executive Summary The outlook for Costa Rica for 2014-2015 is clouded by the fiscal situation.The Central Bank projects a government deficit of 6% of GDP in 2014, and 6.6% in 2015.Clearly those are worrisome numbers. Nor is a solution in sight. Plans to increase revenues are based on improving ta...

Costa Rica: Central Bank announces the revision of its Macroeconomic Program 2014-2015
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

As stated by law, the Central Bank of Costa Rica announced today the revision of its Macroeconomic Program for the rest of 2014 and 2015. The Bank kept its inflation target range at 4.0% ± 1.0 p.p. for 2014 and 2015. In general terms, the outlook calls for slightly lower growth but higher disequi...

Guatemala: Lackluster
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

Executive SummaryQ1 news wasn’t especially happy, though preliminary data delivered no real surprises. GDP growth was estimated at 3.4% y/y, at the lower end of Bank of Guatemala’s 3.3%-3.9% growth forecast for full year 2014. The current account deficit closed at $296 million, well above the $14...

Costa Rica: Fear of Floating
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Jul 2014

Executive SummaryThe Central Bank is changing its way of intervening in the FX market. Though it has not modified the parameters of its band, the new administration has embarked upon a more active intervention policy, keeping the exchange rate below 560 colones per dollar. The Bank is also changi...

El Salvador: Falling to Earth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 22 May 2014

Executive SummaryWith the June 1 Inauguration Day approaching, President-elect Salvador Sánchez is being forced to face financial realities. Though he’s built bridges with various sectors and laid the groundwork for a favorable domestic climate, recent data make clear that the budget lacks funds,...

Costa Rica: Challenging Times
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Apr 2014

Executive SummaryCosta Rican President-elect Luis Guillermo Solis will face challenges after taking office May 8th. Just two days after his landslide victory, Intel Corp. announced it would close its manufacturing facilities in Costa Rica. The closing will be completed by yearend, and involve the...

Luis Guillermo Solis Elected President of Costa Rica
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 07 Apr 2014

Luis Guillermo Solis of the opposition Citizens Action Party (PAC) won a landslide victory over Johnny Araya of the official National Liberation Party in Sunday´s runoff election. Solis obtained nearly 78% of the valid vote, whereas Araya, who virtually withdrew from the race a month ago, receive...

El Salvador: Divided Country
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Mar 2014

Executive Summary We don’t expect major changes in El Salvador’s economic performance this year. Growth will stay low, at about 2%. We also expect inflation to be low, though it will rise above the 0.8% of 2013.The fiscal and current account deficits will be relatively high, increasing the financ...

GUATEMALA: Moderate Growth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Feb 2014

Executive SummaryThe outlook for the Guatemalan economy 2014-2015 is similar to that of 2013. Real GDP growth is projected at 3.5%-4.0%; inflation will be within the 4% ± 1 p.p. of the Central Bank’s target range; and the exchange rate will stay at 7.90-8.10 quetzals per dollar. Interest rates wi...

Central America. El Salvador: Sánchez Cerén almost elected president in the first round
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 03 Feb 2014

With 99% of total votes counted, Vice president Salvador Sánchez Cerén of the official FMLN was slightly short of winning the presidency in yesterday´s election, after getting 48.9% of votes. Norman Quijano, of the opposition ARENA party, will be his contender in the March 9th runoff (38.9%% of t...

Central America. Costa Rica: Solis made a strong come from behind and will dispute April 6th runoff to Araya.
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 03 Feb 2014

Central America. Costa Rica: Solis made a strong come from behind and will dispute April 6th runoff to Araya. With 86% of votes counted, Luis Guillermo Solís of the center-left Citizens´ Action Party (PAC) consolidated an impressive come from behind and led the presidential election with 30.95% o...

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