Central America: Costa Rica´s Central Bank reduced its inflation target range
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 31 Jan 2014

The Central Bank of Costa Rica reduced its inflation target range for 2014-2015 to 4.0% ± 1 p.p. The new target, included in the Macroeconomic Program 2014-15 approved on January 29th, is consistent with the observed decline in the inflation rate during last year (3.68% y/y as of December). The B...

Robust Growth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jan 2014

Executive SummaryEl Salvador and Costa Rica have crucial presidential elections this Sunday. Both races seem headed for a runoff, since none of the candidates seem poised to gather enough votes to win in the first round. In both countries, a leftist party is a major contender -- a new situation f...

Key Leadership Choices Ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jan 2014

Executive SummaryEl Salvador and Costa Rica have crucial presidential elections this Sunday. Both races seem headed for a runoff, since none of the candidates seem poised to gather enough votes to win in the first round. In both countries, a leftist party is a major contender -- a new situation f...

(Politics Are) Hot, Hot, Hot
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Dec 2013

Executive Summary The Costa Rican presidential race is heating up, with dark horse leftist candidate José María Villalta advancing. A Unimer poll for the daily La Nación, published in early December, gave Villalta 23.7% of the votes by voters who had made up their minds, while government candidat...

Honduras: Rough Road Ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Nov 2013

Executive Summary Honduran President-elect Juan Orlando Hernández will have to navigate a rough road, after a polarizing campaign that divided the country. Hernández will face major challenges, including political fragmentation, a likely divided Congress, security risks, muted economic growth and...

COSTA RICA: Finance Minister Campaigns for a Deficit Cut
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 Oct 2013

Executive SummaryCosta Rican Finance Minister Edgar Ayales is trying to turn the country’s ballooning fiscal deficit into an electoral issue, in the runup to the February 2014 presidential vote. He recently released a 52-page missive, in which he and his team analyzed the results of six months of...

EL SALVADOR: Stiff Challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryEl Salvador’s next president won’t have an easy time of it. His major challenge, after taking office next June, will be to restoke growth, dragging along at about 2% since 2009, when real GDP declined by 3.1%. Our 2013-14 forecast points to more of the same. A key element will be...

Guatemala: Keeping the Band-Aids On
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Aug 2013

Executive Summary Under our revised 2013-2014 outlook for the Guatemalan economy, real GDP is expected to grow 3%-3.5%; inflation will stay within the Bank of Guatemala´s target range of 3%-5%; and the quetzal will maintain a 7.9-8 per dollar value. The currency will be supported by a good intern...

Costa Rica: Rainy Weather
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 19 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The economic outlook for Costa Rica looks bleak.With early-year production figures revised downward, the economy is on track to grow just 2.5%, its slowest since 2009, and just 50% of last year’s growth rate.We forecast the fiscal deficit at 5.4% of nominal GDP, up from 4.4% rec...

Costa Rica's Rate Slash
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryAfter discovering that a data error had accidentally inflated the Monthly Index of Economic Activity, Costa Rica's Central Bank quickly cut its policy rate by a full 100 basis points, to 4%. Everyone could already see the economy slowing: first in non free trade zone activities, ...