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COSTA RICA: Interest rate adjustments. Right direction, but “too little…too late”
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 02 Nov 2018

On Wednesday October 31st, The Central Bank increased its whole spectrum of interest rates, in order to tackle two different, although related, problems. In doing so, the Bank´s president Rodrigo Cubero reaffirmed the control of inflation as the main objective of its policy under the current infl...

COSTA RICA: Dismal news
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Oct 2018 · 1 response

Worrying economic news continues in Costa Rica. Unlike what we’ve highlighted in previous reports, negative trends now dominate short-term economic indicator trends: we’re seeing a slowdown in economic activity, merchandise and services exports, credit to the private sector and fiscal revenues. T...

COSTA RICA: Fiscal Reform Bill advances in congress
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 08 Oct 2018 · 1 response

Despite the turbulence of a widespread strike called since September 10th by several public sector unions, demanding the withdrawal of the fiscal reform bill, the Congress continued its discussion and approved it, by a 35-22 vote, in the first reading on Friday October 5th, 2018. The legislative ...

EL SALVADOR: Growth and inflation at status quo
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Sep 2018

El Salvador’s revised short-term economic outlook for 2018-2019 was unsurprising, with only minor changes in key or sensitive macroeconomic indicators. We reaffirm our prediction for real GDP growth of 2.2% y/y in 2018, and 2.4% in 2019. We are also maintaining our inflation forecast, meaning tha...

GUATEMALA: In a poverty trap
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Aug 2018

Our revised 2018-2019 outlook for Guatemala has the same characteristics as our outlook of last March: Slow growth, relatively low inflation and depreciation, a moderate fiscal deficit, government debt below 25% of nominal GDP and monetary control. The outlook calls for GDP growth of 2.8% to 3....

COSTA RICA: A cloudy outlook
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Jul 2018

The 2018-2019 outlook for the Costa Rican economy is cloudy. H1 2018 showed a slowdown in economic activity, a high central government financial deficit and a government debt-to-GDP ratio that had already surpassed 50% of GDP. On the other hand, inflation remains near the lower limit of the Centr...

COSTA RICA: New government’s fiscal stance off to a promising start
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jun 2018 · 1 response

Costa Rica’s new Carlos Alvarado administration appears to be tackling the fiscal problem seriously, unlike its predecessor, which took an ambivalent stance. In fact, in response to the request of the new Congress, Finance Minister Rocio Aguilar on May 30th-31st addressed several topics sensitive...

COSTA RICA: Inauguration dreams versus fiscal realities
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 May 2018

Carlos Alvarado of the Citizens Action Party was sworn in as president of Costa Rica on May 8th, and immediately sent a clear message about the need to solve the government’s fiscal problem. The challenge is complicated, though, not only by the size of the central government’s deficit, estimated ...

EL SALVADOR: Critical political developments
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Apr 2018 · 2 responses

Political developments remain critical in El Salvador. The March 1st congressional elections revealed the weaknesses of the leftist ruling party FMLN, reflecting dissatisfaction with its leadership for two consecutive presidential terms. Whether or not the political environment will help unlock k...

COSTA RICA: Carlos Alvarado elected President by a wide margin, but alliances should be necessary
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 04 Apr 2018

As explained in our Special Report of February 6, the general elections of February 4 decided the composition of Congress but not the Presidency. As no presidential candidate reached at least 40% of the valid vote, the first and second placed-finishers went to a second round on April 1. The date ...

GUATEMALA: Stability, but with structural problems
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Mar 2018

The 2018-2019 economic outlook for Guatemala shows both stability and structural problems. The country will continue to grow at a moderate rate, of 2.9%-3.5%. But that’s insufficient to pull the population out of poverty. Inflation will stay within the Central Bank’s 3%-5% target range, and the ...

COSTA RICA: Uncertainty Is the flavor of the day
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Feb 2018 · 1 response

Costa Rica’s political environment looks unsatisfactory, a situation that affects our short-term economic outlook. Right now, uncertainty is the flavor of the day. The results of the February 4th presidential and congressional elections didn’t curb either uncertainty or negative expectations. In ...

COSTA RICA: Undecided voters overturned the election results
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 06 Feb 2018

Our January 24 report explained in detail the main elements of February 4 presidential and congressional elections, including the survey results at that moment. Given the high volatility of political support due to the large proportion of undecided voters, we didn’t make any guess on the possible...

COSTA RICA: February elections are key
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Jan 2018

Costa Ricans will vote on February 4th to elect a new president, two vice presidents and 57 legislators. There are 13 presidential candidates, and the electoral process could last until April 1st, when a runoff between the two top candidates will take place if no one wins least 40% of the vote i...

COSTA RICA: Dynamism is waning
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 22 Dec 2017

Costa Rica’s economic activity continues decelerating, more or less in line with our 2017 forecast, despite official optimism about expected real GDP growth. The slowdown is quite generalized across sectors. We reiterate the influence of both external and domestic factors. Rising interest rates i...

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