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Economics: Same Sort of Budget in 2018
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2017

There were no real surprises in the final version of the 2018 federal spending bill. In addition to the usual tweaks to budget assumptions regarding projected export oil prices and foreign exchange rates in order to anticipate greater revenues to fund spending next year, the most notable changes ...

Politics: Desolate Outlook for Mexican Police
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2017

In our new series on problems with security and the criminal justice system in Mexico, this week we take a broad look at police institutions at all three levels of government (federal, state and municipal). A lack of federal oversight and legislative gridlock have worsened the already deplorable ...

Economics: Positive Impact for Social Programs
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2017 · 1 response

During the previous presidential administration Mexico almost tripled the number of social programs, which climbed to 278 by 2012. Since that time, greater coordination and other factors allowed for fewer programs (down to 149 in 2017) at the same time as austerity has led to a reduction of funds...

Politics: Public Prosecutors. The Weakest Link?
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2017

The extent to which the public has expressed growing concern over worsening corruption and security indicators leads us to expect those two issues to dominate the upcoming presidential contest. As always, the economy will also be a major point of debate, but with GDP at acceptable levels it may n...

Politics: Spiraling Murder Rate Largely Ignored
MEXICO · Report · 06 Nov 2017 · 1 response

The latest official data showed the death toll from intentional homicides (2,564) made September the second deadliest month on record, surpassed only by June’s tally. In relative terms – murders per 100,000 inhabitants – we probably have already surpassed the previous peak year of 2011, when the...

Economics: Pemex Profits Belie Capex Effects
MEXICO · Report · 06 Nov 2017

When releasing its preliminary results for the third quarter of 2017 last week, Petróleos Mexicanos once again decided to emphasize the results of its efforts to strengthen the company’s financial health while trying to avoid as much as possible the extent to which oil and gas production has cont...

GDP On Track to Top 2% this Year, and New Attorneys to be Appointed
MEXICO · Report · 30 Oct 2017

The evidence of a weakening of consumption and investment continued to pile up over the course of October, but there has been no evidence that would lead us to conclude that GDP will grow less than 2.2% this year. In fact, the Mexican economy grew 2.2% in August according to the monthly proxy (IG...

Economics: No Cataclysm if NAFTA dissolves
MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2017 · 1 response

The fourth round of Nafta renegotiation talks proved to be the most acrimonious to date as the United States pressed ahead with proposals that Canada and Mexico have described as red lines that they will never agree to cross, and U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his disdain for, and willing...

Politics: Frente Ciudadano por México and Zavala’s Spoiler Potential
MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2017

Margarita Zavala’s decision earlier this month to resign from the PAN and run for president as an independent marked a significant setback for the Citizens Front for Mexico (CFM), which has fallen into third place according to most surveys that have been made public. But we will have to wait...

Economics: GFI Offers Little Hope of Strong GDP
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2017 · 2 responses

Fixed investment has been trending lower this year as both the public and private sectors have scaled back construction expenditures, and spending on machinery and equipment has been lackluster. Machinery and equipment investment are still expanding, but growth rates fail to approach the kind...

Politics: Splits and Quakes Reshape 2018
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2017

Margarita Zavala’s announcement October 6 that she was resigning from the PAN to run as an independent may have shaken up the 2018 campaign. As the PAN’s best known presidential hopeful, Zavala was drawing roughly the same support in polls as her main rival within the PAN, party chairman Ricardo...

Politics: A Broken Campaign Finance System
MEXICO · Report · 09 Oct 2017

The crisis of credibility of political parties that has festered as part of the broader political crisis of the past three years was magnified in the last two weeks amid calls for the public funding of parties to be redirected to earthquake victims and reconstruction efforts. That clamor undersc...

Economics: No Need to Lower GDP Forecast
MEXICO · Report · 09 Oct 2017

While second quarter data prompted upward revisions to the 2017 GDP forecasts of some analysts and authorities, many have begun scaling back those estimates as evidence of a weakening of consumption and investment have emerged over the course of the third quarter. Some have gone as far as to warn...

Budget Doubts Cast Pall on 2018, While the Government Acts Promptly after the Earthquake
MEXICO · Report · 02 Oct 2017 · 1 response

Economic indicators were contradictory over the past month. Business and consumer optimism continued to recover, the leading indicator rose for a sixth month in July, and private consumption continued to grow even as there was evidence of a softening in some segments. In news just this past week,...

Economic Risk Balance 2017-2018
MEXICO · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017

The economy is growing more rapidly, nourished by domestic consumption and non-oil exports, but risks remain, including US protectionism, rising inflation and political uncertainty.

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