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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Presidential Ratings Near Rock Bottom
MEXICO · Report · 25 Sep 2017

The latest GEA-ISA nationwide poll of registered voters shows President Enrique Peña Nieto’s disapproval ratings have reached historical highs as the public displays a deep sense of pessimism about how things are likely to evolve in the election year. The administration might possibly glean sn...

Economics: Pros and Cons of Revised NCPI
MEXICO · Report · 25 Sep 2017

In light of the need to regularly update how inflation surveys are conducted to in order to better track consumers’ actual consumption patterns – reflecting changes in consumer preferences for products and services, their availability and relevance to consumers, the sorts of venues in which the p...

Economics: No Growth Boost from 2018 Budget
MEXICO · Report · 18 Sep 2017

A week ago the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto sent Congress its budget package for 2018, which was closely aligned with what the Ministry of Finance had been signaling in recent weeks: conservative assumptions on the macroeconomic framework; a modest increase in revenues, more bec...

Politics: Zero-Sum Congressional Politics
MEXICO · Report · 18 Sep 2017

Congress just convened this month but politicians are more cognizant than ever of how their words and deeds must be tailored to enhance the electoral prospects of their respective parties, and their own chances of appearing on the ballot next year. Actual campaigning will not get underway for sev...

Economics: Survey Hints at Lower Poverty
MEXICO · Report · 11 Sep 2017

Mexico’s National Statistics Institute updated our understanding of trends in household income and spending, as well as the dynamics of poverty, with the release of its bi-annual National Survey of Household Income and Spending (ENIGH). Unfortunately, the latest report, which was based on data co...

Politics: Potential Shakeups for 2018 Scenarios
MEXICO · Report · 11 Sep 2017 · 1 response

The first hours of the fall session of Congress got off to a rocky start as internal factional strife in one party became enmeshed in a broader dispute over whether the current attorney general would continue to preside over the prosecutorial branch of the criminal justice system for the next nin...

Growth Despite Softer Consumption, in the Twilight of the Administration
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2017

Economic data released in August showed stronger GDP (+3.0% yoy for 2Q17) even as growth in industrial activity was restricted almost entirely to manufacturing (+4.0%). Cyclical indicators were positive as were readings of private consumption, which sustained its momentum (+ 4.0% in May), led by ...

Economics: Nafta Talks Off to an Opaque Start
MEXICO · Report · 28 Aug 2017

The joint statement issued by Nafta countries following the first round of renegotiations contained only the vaguest generalities about what they discussed and if any progress was achieved. Stakeholders briefed on the talks were similarly circumspect, but much can be gleaned from the texts of the...

Politics: AMLO picks the Mexico City Candidate
MEXICO · Report · 28 Aug 2017

Late last Thursday evening a key piece of the 2018 electoral puzzle fell into place as Morena leaders leaked the name of the party’s nominee to be the next mayor of Mexico City. The choice of Claudia Sheinbaum, a respected scientist and the head of government in the capital’s Tlalpan borough did ...

Economics: New Wage Dynamics and Inflation
MEXICO · Report · 21 Aug 2017

The disproportionate rise in formal sector employment since 2013 that has served as one of the main drivers of the internal market has not been matched by a similar rise in payroll compensation, which when deflated has registered a mere annual 0.5% increase since 2013. It fell 0.9% during the fir...

Politics: PRI Doubles Down on Old Strategy
MEXICO · Report · 21 Aug 2017

Heading into the PRI’s national assembly observers were especially anxious to see whether the party might resist any bending of rules to pave the way for an historically unpopular president to hand pick his choice of successor, or decide to offer something of substance in its vision for Mexico in...

Economics: EM Outlook Firms, but Trouble Lurks
MEXICO · Report · 14 Aug 2017 · 2 responses

The election of a new US president in November initially had a markedly adverse effect on most emerging economies, which had already been rocked by two years of depressed commodity prices, sluggish-to-negative growth and stressed public finances. Mexico was among the hardest hit countries as W...

Politics: BOF Efforts Intensify, But Pitfalls Remain
MEXICO · Report · 11 Aug 2017

As the incumbent PRI considers new ground rules for its presidential selection process, and that of Morena was always a foregone conclusion, PAN and PRD leaders have been stepping up efforts to establish what they have billed as a Broad Opposition Front (BOF) that could involve other political pa...

Economics: Reform A Success Minus Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 07 Aug 2017

As we reach the third anniversary of Mexico’s energy reform, the goal of producing the strongest possible results in the shortest time possible remains a key objective, and one on which it is clearly delivering. That success is apparent in the extent to which Mexico has convinced both interna...

Politics: Tláhuac Lays Bare Cartel in the Capital
MEXICO · Report · 07 Aug 2017

When Marine troops killed Felipe Pérez Luna ‒ a.k.a. "Los Ojos", the boss of a criminal gang based in the Tláhuac borough and flagrantly operating throughout a considerable part of Mexico City ‒ it brought to the public’s attention just how deeply organized crime has penetrated the capital. It u...

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