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Politics: Was Chapo a Free Gift to Trump?
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jan 2017

Last week marked the end of an epoch. Following his improbable victory and a bumpy transition, Donald Trump assumed the office of President of the United States. This fact does not change everything for Mexico, but it does change a great deal. The new occupant of the White House has been very...

Economics: Muted Effect of GOP Tax Plan’s Border Tax
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jan 2017

In recent weeks one of the aspects of the Trump presidency that has generated the most uncertainty in Mexico is the way in which it has posed restricting imports from other countries and promoting US domestic production. Of particular concern is the Republican Party’s fiscal reform proposal, whic...

Economics: Blowback from Botched Price Hike
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jan 2017

During the last days of 2016, the federal government announced it would authorize an increase in gasoline and diesel prices that would take effect during the first days of January. We at GEA believe that while the price hike may have been justified by the rise in oil prices and foreign exchange ...

Politics: Governability in Question
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jan 2017

Following a couple of weeks of unexplained gasoline shortages, the government announced on December 27 that on New Year’s Day gasoline prices would rise by 20% on average, this following years of assurances by President Enrique Peña that the energy reform would do away with such "gasolinazos". Fe...

Looking Back and Ahead of 2017, while Mexicans Brace for Trump
MEXICO · Report · 26 Dec 2016

Official economic indicators released during the month of December reaffirmed the role that domestic consumption has been playing throughout the past year. A case in point was the report on private consumption for September showing a 12 month rate of growth of 3.6% that marked an improvement over...

Economics: Bigger Problems than Trump
MEXICO · Report · 21 Dec 2016

The rating agency Fitch changed Mexico’s risk outlook last week from stable to negative, citing lower projected growth in the Mexican economy following Donald Trump’s victory at the polls. The Trump factor is, in fact, one of the channels of risk to public finances but it is important to note th...

Politcs: Back to the Barracks?
MEXICO · Report · 21 Dec 2016

In recent weeks National Defense Minister General Salvador Cienfuegos once again publicly vented the military high command’s frustration in recent years over the government’s failure to pass an internal security law that would provide legal protections to military personnel that have been pressed...

Economics: Fourth O&G Tender A Big Success
MEXICO · Report · 14 Dec 2016

Last week Mexico announced the results of its fourth phase of Round One hydrocarbon field tenders, the country’s first deep water bid round. The blocks that were awarded were more attractive than the ones offered in the first three phases due to their production and profitability potential. Preci...

Politics: Peña Nieto’s Fourth-Year Scorecard
MEXICO · Report · 14 Dec 2016

According to the latest GEA-ISA poll of voters taken between November 25 and 28, the public has a clearly adverse view of the administration of President Peña as it concludes its fourth year in office. On the five major points around which his National Development Plan was structured (greater pub...

Economics: Extent of Trump's Trade Agenda
MEXICO · Report · 07 Dec 2016 · 1 response

One of the central themes of United States President-elect Donald Trump’s election campaign was his call to review or cancel the trade accords the US has entered into with other countries as he claimed the US economy and employment have suffered as a result of the economic opening. Uncertainty re...

Politics: Nothing to Celebrate in Latest Crime Stats
MEXICO · Report · 07 Dec 2016

The latest National Survey on Business Victimization for 2016 (ENVE 2016), the third installment in the series, indicates that an alarming 35.5% of economic units in the country were victims of at least one type of crime in 2015, up from 33.1% in 2013. (Note: Victimization surveys reflect the exp...

Banco de Mexico's governor: a badly timed resignation
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2016

Agustin Carstens resigned as governor of Banco de Mexico, effective next July, to become the head of BIS. The timing is unfortunate, since this change comes during a circumstance in which monetary policy has become the main (and in our opinion, the only), policy instrument at hand to preserve ...

Signs of Softening and Uncertainty, While Anti-corruption Efforts Remain Muddled
MEXICO · Report · 30 Nov 2016

Economic indicators last month showed the Mexican economy largely sustained its slackened pace of recent quarters (an average 2.0% rate of growth through the first nine months of the year) as weak supply indicators contrasted with continuing strength in demand, although the latter also manifests ...

Politics: How Best to Answer Donald Trump's threats
MEXICO · Report · 24 Nov 2016

The two axes –economic integration and shared security— upon which in recent decades a complex and profound relationship of collaboration and trust between Mexico and the United States was built is about to be upended and potentially demolished by the aggressive measures president elect Donald T...

Economics: Inadequate Response Plan - Signals
MEXICO · Report · 24 Nov 2016

The election of Republican Nominee Donald Trump as President of the United States has highlighted the existence of structural vulnerabilities in the Mexican economy that have been exacerbated in recent months. In this context, it is important to analyze the various variables that have deteriorat...

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