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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Insecurity, Debt, Graft and Elections
MEXICO · Report · 24 May 2016

With two weeks left before the June 5 elections, campaigning has intensified and turned increasingly negative. Questions of economic growth, corruption, and security have consolidated as the top issues in the minds of potential voters and central themes of the campaigns. And security indicators h...

Economics: Dubious Paths to Reinventing Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 18 May 2016

The new management team at Pemex that CEO José Antonio González presides over has been on the job for almost 100 days, a period in which it was almost immediately faced with deep budget cuts ordered by the Ministry of Finance, followed by protests by Pemex suppliers over the mushrooming amounts t...

Politics: Elections 2016: A closer look
MEXICO · Report · 18 May 2016

Until not long ago it looked as though the PRI would have little problem winning most all of the 12 governors’ mansions that will be up for grabs the first Sunday of June. But following more than five weeks of campaigning, the races have tightened considerably, and the governing party looks to be...

Economics: Consumption and Credit Sustain Growth
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2016

According to the National Statistics Office’s preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2016, the Mexican economy grew 2.7% between January and March compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The report was in line with GEA’s estimate of 2.6%. Preliminary GDP growth was driven prim...

Politics: A Year of both Progress and Inaction
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2016

The first year of the LXIII Congress (2015-2018) concluded with considerably fewer achievements than had initially been hoped for as the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto has apparently lost the ability it demonstrated during its first two years in office to promote its own legislati...

The Picture Darkens
MEXICO · Report · 05 May 2016

Hard indicators published in April painted a more somber picture of the Mexican economy, beginning with a 14.2% plunge in the number of cars and light trucks exported in March, and an 11% fall in the number made, despite record domestic demand. Manufacturing export activity in general has shrunk,...

Economics: The Economic Toll of Budget Cuts
MEXICO · Report · 27 Apr 2016

The reductions in public spending that have been concurrently announced by the Ministry of Finance have always been deepest on the level of investment and only marginal in the case of current spending. Those announced for 2016 were no exception, with much of the cuts taking the form of the postpo...

Politics: President’s Timid Proposal on Cannabis
MEXICO · Report · 27 Apr 2016

Last Wednesday, two days after his speech before the U.N. General Assembly Special Session on Drugs, President Enrique Peña Nieto announced he was sending Congress new legislation based on proposals made during five forums the federal government organized in recent months. There are numerous impl...

Economics: Sentiment and investment dichotomy
MEXICO · Report · 19 Apr 2016

Indexes of business confidence for March and of gross fixed investment for January showed negative results last week. But readings of sentiment and actual fixed investment significantly parted ways as far back as 2013 and as recently as 2015, a period in which business owners grew increasingly pe...

Politics: UNGASS and Foreign Policy Disarray
MEXICO · Report · 19 Apr 2016

President Enrique Peña Nieto’s approach to foreign relations has been a point of considerable controversy lately, with the most recent point of contention his initial decision early this month not to attend the upcoming U.N. General Assembly Special Session on Drugs, an event that had been moved ...

Economics: Lower Outlook, Deeper Cuts
MEXICO · Report · 14 Apr 2016

The Ministry of Finance sent the Chamber of Deputies its “Preliminary Economic Policy Criteria for 2017” on April 1. The preliminary criteria text depicts a relatively conservative macroeconomic scenario for 2017: GDP growth between 2.6% and 3.6% (as opposed to GEA’s 2.1% estimate); 3% inflation...

Politics: Panama, Bloomberg and Anti-Corruption
MEXICO · Report · 13 Apr 2016

No Mexican government officials have been mentioned so far in the Panama Papers, although the names of a number of prominent businessmen have turned up. But one whose financial activities may prove to be especially politically significant is Juan Armando Hinojosa, who has emerged as a major gover...

Downgrade and Slowdown Ahead
MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2016

Moderate industrial growth, plus service sector and consumption trends, were the main economic growth drivers in March. A positive monthly report from Antad showed that retailers expanded sales in February at their fastest pace in four months. But the broader indicators (IGAE and industrial activ...

Economics: Economy Defies External Winds
MEXICO · Report · 24 Mar 2016

The main driver of growth in the Mexican economy during 2015 was to be found in the internal market, especially on the level of private consumption. Diverse indicators show that private consumption’s growth dynamic continues to be driven by the firming of the formal sector labor market as both th...

Politics: Crime, Graft Further Erode Gov’t Ratings
MEXICO · Report · 24 Mar 2016

After having achieved passage of its agenda of structural reforms during the first half of its term of office, we believe that the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto should prioritize in its final three years in office work toward concretizing and assuring the full implementation of t...

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