Economics: Pemex Rescue Plans Fall Short
MEXICO · Report · 17 Mar 2016

On February 8, President Enrique Peña appointed José Antonio González as the new General Director of Petróleos Mexicanos. Nine days later, the Ministry of Finance announced the company’s budget was being slashed by 100 billion pesos. The new CEO presented the company’s preliminary consolidated ...

Politics: New Viceroys Key to 2018 Campaign
MEXICO · Report · 17 Mar 2016

The importance of the gubernatorial elections to take place this June, a full two years before the next presidential contest, resides in the enormous power state governors have acquired over the past 15 years, and the considerable prerogatives they derive from the political, territorial and budge...

Economics: Pass-through Effect Looms
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2016

Peso depreciation has been a source of considerable concern in virtually all spheres of Mexican society. One of the main reasons for that sense of unease is the extent to which we are seeing a resurgence of inflation pressures. Just two weeks after Banco de México and the Ministry of Finance ann...

Politics: New Challenges to Anti-graft Reform
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2016

Fighting corruption is an issue that is at the center of public debate these days in Mexico, thanks in large part to the call for a citizens’ initiative in support of their proposal for a General Law of Administrative Responsibilities, which has been promoted under the hash tag “#Ley3de3”. Follow...

Few Glimmers of Hope
MEXICO · Report · 03 Mar 2016

Economic activity has been generally disappointing over the past month. There were some bright spots, especially in consumption of goods and services, as Antad-affiliated retailers reported robust sales growth (up a real 8.8% y/y in January), while car manufacturers reported their best sales for ...

Economics: Parsing Labor Market Data
MEXICO · Report · 25 Feb 2016

According to the National Employment Survey (ENOE) for the last quarter of 2015, the total number of people employed grew 2.5% on average in 2015 with the most pronounced increase a 3.5% rise registered for the fourth quarter that marked an extension of a growth trend through the second half of t...

Politics: The Fight for the Lost World of Mexican Prisons
MEXICO · Report · 24 Feb 2016

The recent riot in Topo Chico prison, in which 49 inmates were killed and another 12 seriously injured, is just the latest in a long history of official neglect and abject conditions prevailing in many correctional facilities throughout Mexico. The specific diagnostic for the Topo Chico facility ...

Economics: Limited Fx, Rate Risk Near Term
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2016

The slowing pace of global economic growth, rising interest rates on peso debt, peso depreciation and the growing cost of servicing dollar denominated debt could have a major impact on non financial private sector companies and on the Mexican financial system. Nevertheless, such additional extern...

Politics: A Citizen Initiative as Gov’t Fails to Act
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2016

More than eight months since the constitutional reform that presumes to deal with problems of corruption on the part of public servants and private actors was enacted, not a single secondary law has been passed that would allow for its implementation. Two key pieces of legislation needed to get t...

Monetary and fiscal announcement in Mexico puts the economy in the right track
MEXICO · In Brief · 17 Feb 2016

Banxico announced an unscheduled monetary policy decision of increasing domestic interest rates by 50 basis points and the Exchange Commission (formed by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank) announced the suspension of the existing FX auctions of up to USD$400m in daily USD and the launc...

Economics: Trade Structure Poses Risks
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2016

The conditions prevailing in the international economy in recent months, which have translated into a severe contraction in the international price of oil as well as a drastic depreciation of the Mexican peso in relation to the dollar, have had and will continue to harbor diverse implications for...

Politics: Mexico’s City State and Gatopardismo
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2016

President Enrique Peña signed a decree on January 29 to authorize implementation of the constitutional reform that brings to an end the existence of the Federal District as the seat of federal government and the capital of the Mexican Republic, replacing it with a new entity formally called Ciuda...

Can Nothing Be Done?
MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2016

While economic signals were mixed, economic news in January was overshadowed by a further devaluation of the peso. Until oil prices have clearly bottomed out, we expect the currency to keep weakening. Though these two phenomena are clearly beyond Mexican control, this does not imply that the prob...

Economics: Factory Exports Weak Despite Peso
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2016

Mexico’s manufacturing exports turned in a mixed performance over the course of 2015, as automotive shipments continued to grow (although the pace of expansion has tended to slow), while the main components of the non automotive segment experienced contractions. Given the extent to which the p...

Politics: The 2018 Contest Remains Wide Open
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2016

Elections this year in 13 states will necessarily act as a filter ahead of the 2018 presidential contest, which unofficially got off to an unusually early start that predates even last year’s midterms thanks to a combination of Peña administration setbacks, the unrelenting stumping of Andrés Manu...