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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Headwinds Stiffen as Volatility Builds
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2016

The first weeks of 2016 have been marked by a significant devaluation of the Mexican peso along with a similar erosion of value affecting most of the world’s emerging market currencies. In the retail market, the peso was selling Friday at 18.55 to the dollar, a development that alarmed Mexican au...

Politics: Drug Trade and Policy Post ‘Chapo’
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2016

Politics in Mexico during the first two weeks of 2016 has been dominated by the arrest of drug kingpin Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera, and his eventual extradition to stand trial in the United States. This week we will focus our analysis precisely on the consequences his latest arrest will have ...

Economics: Prospects Mixed, But Lifted by the Recapture of a Drug Kingpin
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jan 2016

Fall indicators have generally been mixed. Several released in December suggested a strengthening economic direction for Mexico, including a slight sequential firming of the leading indicator for October. This was the first positive result from this indicator for 14 months, largely reflecting a f...

Economics: The Puzzle of Conflicting Indicators
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2015

The contrast between the weak behavior of Mexico’s GDP in the first six months of 2015 and various other economic indicators prompted the head of Mexico’s Tax Authority (SAT), Aristóteles Núñez, and some analysts to begin arguing in October that there was a probability that the methodology the au...

Politics: Administration’s Second-half Focus
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2015

The second half of the six-year administration of President Enrique Peña will be defined by two major issues that are interlinked: the effective implementation of the structural reforms that were passed during the current government’s first year in office, and trying to manage a presidential succ...

Economics: Pemex’s Ongoing Downward Spiral
MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2015

Executive Summary Pemex’s release of its financial results for the third quarter of 2015 prompted Moody’s to lower its global rating on the company from A3 to Baa1, a level reflecting low-to-moderate risk, which the agency said resulted from expectations that “Pemex’s credit metrics will deterior...

Politics: Uptick, but Approval Numbers Low
MEXICO · Report · 16 Dec 2015

This week we are presenting the results of GEA’s fourth edition in 2015 of its study, Mexico: Politics, Society and Change, Political Scenarios, with a focus on public perceptions of how the current government has performed, and the electoral preferences of voters with an eye toward the 2018 pres...

Economics: Mexico’s TPP Challenges
MEXICO · Report · 10 Dec 2015

The full text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership treaty was made public the second week of November and is now expected to be ratified by each participating country. Our analysis suggests that membership in the TPP will lead to changes, albeit minimal ones, on the level of Mexico’s trade in the ...

Politics: First Look at the Work of the New Congress
MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2015

With the expedited reforms of the Pact for Mexico a fading memory, the 63rd Congress convened for its first session on September 1. In keeping with a custom in place since 1997, whenever the administration in office (whether from the Institutional Revolutionary (PRI) or the National Action (PAN) ...

Growth Rise Driven by Oil Output
MEXICO · Report · 03 Dec 2015

GDP grew far more than expected in Q3, at a 12-month rate of 2.6%, vs. the market consensus projection of 2.3%, according to a preliminary report. Commerce, the weightiest of the three main sectors, grew most robustly, with its 4.8% y/y expansion surpassing consensus growth predictions of 3%. ...

Economics: Congress’ Tinkering with the Budget
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2015

As we analyzed in previous issues of Weekly Trends: Mexico Economy since October 26, the changes the Mexican Congress introduced to President Enrique Peña Nieto’s original 2016 Revenue Law propose an increase of 16.9 billion pesos. In contrast, lawmakers left the president’s public deficit propos...

Politics: Two Seats to Fill on High Court
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2015

President Enrique Peña Nieto has sent the Senate two alternative lists of candidates from which to choose the two people who are to fill vacancies on the Supreme Court being left by Justices Olga Sánchez Cordero and Juan Silva Meza, who are concluding their 15-year terms on the bench. This is the...

Economics: No Foreseeable Lid on the Debt
MEXICO · Report · 19 Nov 2015

Now that the lower chamber of Congress has approved next year’s revenue and spending budgets it is time to take a look at how the public debt and budget deficit are likely to evolve in the coming years. The risks may prove considerable at a time of depressed petroleum revenues and rising debt cos...

Politics: Cannabis Left In Legal Limbo
MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2015

Early this month Mexico’s highest court took an initial and decisive step toward ending the ban on the production and consumption of cannabis for recreational purposes by upholding the rights of four plaintiffs to produce it for their own consumption. This decision does not constitute what in com...

Economics: Prem. 3Q GDP Tells a Familiar Story
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2015

The Estimate of Quarterly GDP for the third quarter, published recently by the National Statistics Office (Inegi), showed 2.4% growth compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The expansion was driven primarily by a 4.6% increase in primary activities and 2.9% growth in those of the tertiary s...

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