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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Latest Data Bodes Ill for 2H15
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2015

Executive Summary For some time, information regarding the relative strength of the Mexican economy has been volatile and in some instances points to apparent contradictions. The same can be said of the indicators released to date for the first four months of 2015. A few weeks ago the National St...

Politics: Officials Dither as Crime Rates Grow
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2015

Executive Summary This past Friday, the authorities released their latest monthly report on the number and rates of major crimes (intentional homicide, kidnapping and extortion). The data corresponded to the month of May and revealed some troubling trends. The number and rate of intentional homic...

Economics: Commodities, Forex and Inflation
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Over the past year raw material prices have experienced their sharpest contractions on an international level since the economic crisis of 2008-2009. The International Monetary Fund’s general index of raw material prices recorded a 31.9% decrease between June 2014 and May of thi...

Politics: Municipal Election Results
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2015

Executive Summary In addition to electing a new Chamber of Deputies and nine state governors, on June 7 Mexican voters elected new authorities in slightly more than 1,000 municipalities. This election confirmed that a party’s victory in a gubernatorial contest is by no means a guarantee of carryi...

Economics: Snapshot by State
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2015

Executive Summary The economies of each of Mexico’s 32 states developed in 2014 in a context of moderate GDP growth nationally, as the country’s GDP expanded by a mere 2.1%, which at least marked an improvement over its 2013 performance. The main drivers of the national economy last year were man...

Politics: Congressional Election Results
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Although the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) experienced a net loss of votes compared to past elections and obtained only 29.2% of the vote, that proved to be enough to win 176, or slightly more than 60% of the 300 single member, relative majority districts. Th...

Economics: Cost-push and further peso spike
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2015

Executive Summary The depreciation and volatility that the Mexican peso has experienced in relation to the dollar since late last year is something that one would be ill-advised to try to minimize. As is widely known, much of the peso's recent depreciation (and volatility) is explained not only b...

Politics: First Analyses of the Electoral Results
MEXICO · Report · 09 Jun 2015

Executive summaryThere were no changes in the relative weights of the three main parties in Congress. However, the amount of votes they gathered has diminished constantly and importantly. The coalition PRI-Green party will not have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies: based on available data, t...

First cut on the Mexican mid-term elections
MEXICO · In Brief · 08 Jun 2015

The government seems to have won the midterm referendum. The Electoral Institute did a good job in organising the elections, amid problems in Guerrero and Oaxaca In the races for nine governor mansions, the three main parties seem to win something. The recent figure of an "independent candidate" ...

Politics: Last poll data before the election
MEXICO · Report · 05 Jun 2015

Executive Summary The last GEA-ISA poll, released on June 2, shows the electoral preferences with the PRI on top (35%), followed by the PAN (28%), the PRD (12%), the Green Party (7%) and Morena (6%). Of the smaller parties, the PT, PANAL, and Movimiento Ciudadano might keep their registration as ...

Economic Climb, Interrupted
MEXICO · Report · 03 Jun 2015

Executive SummaryWith international oil prices on the upswing, and the possibility of a U.S. slowdown looking more remote, some early-year economic risks have evaporated. Yet other risks are emerging – the biggest of them employers' deteriorating economic expectations.Two other factors we will so...

Politics: A Tale of Two Key Electoral Contests
MEXICO · Report · 27 May 2015

Executive Summary Of all the states in which local elections will be held June 7, those in Nuevo León and the nation's capital have generated the most interest, and their outcomes are results that could have the greatest ramifications nationally. The contest in the northeastern state is important...

Economics: More Jobs but Pay Remains Weak
MEXICO · Report · 27 May 2015

Executive Summary The rate of growth in payroll employment has been twice that of the general economy since the second half of 2012. That outperformance reflected a significant migration of workers in the informal sector into formal sector jobs, but the first quarter of 2015 saw growth in both fo...

Economics: Remittance Recovery Continues
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2015

Executive Summary In 2014 Mexico set a new post 2008-2009 record for the volume of remittances it received. In dollars, such inflows grew by 8% compared to the previous year, to total US$23.65 billion. This growth trend extended through the first quarter of 2015, with remittances rising by anothe...

Politics: How the Race is Shaping Up
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2015

Executive Summary In just under three weeks voters in all 31 states and the Federal District will head to the polls to elect their congressional representatives. Simultaneously there will be state legislative and/or municipal contests in roughly half of those states, including nine that will elec...

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