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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Credit Still Flowing to Businesses
MEXICO · Report · 13 May 2015

Executive Summary In keeping with the recovery seen in internal consumption of recent months, bank credit for durable goods purchases increased in each of the first three months of 2015 and in the process capped a 14-month long contraction in the availability of such loans. However, credit issued...

Politics: The New Face of Organized Crime
MEXICO · Report · 12 May 2015

Executive Summary Over the course of an eight-year government offensive against drug trafficking, the structure of organized crime has morphed and fragmented considerably. Gone are almost all of the drug cartels of yesteryear and in their place have emerged myriad criminal gangs that are more foc...

Congress Takes on Corruption
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2015

Executive Summary With inflation in check, Mexico’s internal market continued to firm through March, thanks to job growth, wages that rose 5.8% y/y in real terms in Q1, and a firming of consumer confidence that has driven stronger retail sales. The tertiary sector has been the prime beneficiary o...

Politics: More Bad News on Security Front
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Insecurity remains a complicated issue for the administration of President Enrique Peña, which has long cited positive trends in crime rates to refute critics, many of whom have warned since the very first days of the Peña administration that it lacks a clear strategy for combat...

Economics: Internal Market Takes Off
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The positive dynamic we observed in private consumption over the course of the second half of 2014 extended through the first quarter of 2015. Diverse variables have contributed to the extension of that positive trend. For starters, the economy’s formal sector wage mass grew by ...

Politics: How the Public Might Vent Its Ire
MEXICO · Report · 21 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The rising sense of frustration over reports of graft, influence peddling, and the political system in general, will undoubtedly find specific forms of expression as the public’s patience will presumably grow thinner given the appalling lack of sensitivity officials or their rel...

Economics: Cuts, Not Fires, Threaten Revenues
MEXICO · Report · 21 Apr 2015

Executive Summary On the last day of March, the Ministry of Finance sent the Mexican Congress a document entitled “2015 Economic Policy Pre-criteria” that offers an analysis of the current state of the economy. It also updates the macroeconomic framework anticipated for 2015-2016 and the way in w...

Economics: Local Ripples from US Slowdown
MEXICO · Report · 16 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Since the last quarter of 2014 and through the first of 2015, the US economy has shown lower levels of growth in its industrial sector. In contrast to the slowdown observed in early 2014, which was largely provoked by climatic circumstances (polar vortex), the latest stalling of...

Politics: Midterm Race Tightens
MEXICO · Report · 16 Apr 2015

Executive Summary With the general election campaign underway, the Institutional Revolutionary Party may feel more wrath from voters this year than incumbent parties are accustomed to in midterm elections. But due to a relative dearth of good polling data there is a considerable lack of visibilit...

Growth Firming Up
MEXICO · Report · 07 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The past month has produced further evidence of economic momentum and future growth potential, while also revealing unexpected weaknesses.Since September, the monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) shows the economy growing at its natural pace of 2.5% to 3% of GDP. January’s report extended t...

Politics: Shift in Polls Suggest Tightening Race
MEXICO · Report · 24 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The latest GEA-ISA polling results point to a scenario quite different from that observed in September of last year, when the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) enjoyed an edge of three to one over its closest competitor, the National Action Party (PAN), and what ...

Economics: Reform Benefits Start to Kick In
MEXICO · Report · 24 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Mexico’s federal government reported in recent days on the progress that has been achieved to date in relation to the structural reforms that Mexico has adopted since 2012. Significant movement has been recorded in relation to energy, financial telecommunications and labor refor...

Polls Belie Major Political Successes
MEXICO · Report · 20 Mar 2015

Executive Summary President Enrique Peña Nieto and his administration have scored some major successes in recent weeks, such as intercepting top crime bosses, indirectly confronting a couple of the country’s most powerful monopolies and uncovering a major case of corruption. But according to the ...

Economics: What futures may bring... to the peso
MEXICO · Report · 19 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The exchange rate has risen consistently since September 2014, climbing to an historical high of 15.57 pesos to the dollar on March 10, which marked an accumulated depreciation of 18.2% since September 2014. In that context, Mexico’s Foreign Exchange Commission, presided over by...

Politics: How State Races Are Shaping Up
MEXICO · Report · 19 Mar 2015

Executive Summary As Mexico prepares for its midterm elections to be held June 7, polling data is still scarce when it comes to many of the contests that will be playing out in state and local races. However, there is just enough data available from reliable sources to give us an idea of how thos...

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