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Investment, Beyond the Upgrade
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2014

Executive Summary Last Wednesday the ratings agency Moody's Investors Service upgraded Mexican sovereign debt from Baa1 to A3. Moody’s also noted its stable outlook on Mexican debt, which the firm said is an indication that it does not foresee any significant changes in its Mexico rating during t...

From Inquisitorial to Adversarial Justice
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2014

Executive Summary One of the weakest links in the Mexican state is its chronic inability to mete out justice in an expeditious, transparent and efficient manner. The entire justice system has lacked the minimal funding and human capital, and it is hamstrung by a more systemic weakness: its depend...

A Muddled Outlook
MEXICO · Report · 06 Feb 2014

Executive Summary In this month’s review of economic news, we focus on the stark contrast between the bright promise that structural reforms will serve as major catalysts of economic growth and the chiaroscuro portrait painted by recent indicators on the current state of the Mexican economy. By t...

Financial Reform’s Scope and Limits
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2014

Executive Summary Last week’s inflation report showed that consumer prices rose 0.68% during the first half of January, the sharpest increase for that two-week period in four years. That result pushed the National Consumer Price Index’s 12- month rate of inflation to 4.63%, the highest level sinc...

Conundrum of Self Defense Groups
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The emergence in some states of civilian groups formed for purposes of self-defense against criminal gangs poses new challenges for the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto and the Mexican state in general. Nowhere is that challenge more acute at this moment than in th...

Search for Revived Productivity Growth
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The World Bank published its Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report last Wednesday, in which it estimates Mexico GDP will expand 3.4% in 2014 and that part of the expansion will be facilitated by US growth. The report adds that the global economy continues with its gradual recov...

New Year’s Policy and Political Hurdles
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jan 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This second part of our political perspectives report for 2014 will address two topics: the main challenges that the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto will face in matters that are a source of social discontent (the poor state of the economy and public security), an...

Modulating Expectations
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jan 2014

Executive Summary Last week President Enrique Peña Nieto signed into law the constitutional reforms affecting the financial sector. The government expects these changes to encourage competition in the financial services industry and to increase the amount of credit issued by development banks as ...

Next Phase of Reform
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The first major challenge and the central theme of the 2014 political agenda will involve passing secondary legislation necessary for implementation of the major structural reforms approved last year, and then instrumenting those changes. In that regard, 2014 promises to be a mo...

Future Payback from Energy Reform
MEXICO · Report · 24 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Last week the national statistics office released its report on aggregate demand for the third quarter of 2013. Demand grew 1.5% compared to the same July-September period of a year earlier (GEA had estimated a 1.6% increase). During the second quarter of 2013, demand grew 2.2%....

No Referendum on Reform
MEXICO · Report · 24 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Early last week, the necessary 17-state majority ratified the constitutional reform regarding the energy sector and last Friday, at the National Palace, President Enrique Peña Nieto signed it into law. The enactment itself is likely to produce two main types of political consequ...

S&P raises Mexico’s credit rating: more wishful thinking on debt quality improvement than hard facts
MEXICO · In Brief · 23 Dec 2013

Standard and Poor’s (S&P), raised Mexico’s sovereign rating from BBB to BBB+ shortly after Energy Reform was approved. Mexico’s country rating has been investment grade for a while. With this action S&P reverses the one notch reduction following the 2009 recession (-6.2% annual GDP change) and br...

The Challenges Ahead
MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2013

Executive Summary As we near the end of what could be described as the most congressionally productive year the Mexican government has enjoyed in at least two decades, there is a bit of irony in the fact that the administration that has presided over such an ambitious reform agenda has lower appr...

Economics: Looking for the FDI Tide to Turn
MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Last week the Mexican Congress passed energy reform amendments to the constitution with the support of the PAN and PRI, and over the opposition of the PRD. The most significant aspect of the reform is the extent to which it opens the industry to private investment through a broa...

The Central Bank’s Next Move
MEXICO · Report · 10 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Mexico’s monetary authority decided last week to leave its TIIE interbank lending rate at 3.5%. Banco de México said it based its decision on the idea that inflation would remain near 3.5% for the balance of the current year and throughout 2014, and then trend lower until inters...