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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Data published in May tended to show continuing growth but at a slower pace
MEXICO · Report · 30 May 2023

While GDP for the first quarter (3.7%) came in 2bp lower than the preliminary figure published almost a month earlier, consumption and gross fixed capital formation figures for the first months of the year came in higher than expected, prompting us to upwardly revise our growth projection for 202...

Politics: De facto expropriation of section of rail line and the political decomposition it entails
MEXICO · Report · 30 May 2023

When Mexican Marines took control on May 19 of a 75-mile stretch of rail line operated by a subsidiary of Mexico’s second largest conglomerate, Grupo Mexico, the seizure was a form of expropriation as officials have never indicated when, if ever, they might return it. The takeover is part of Pres...

Economics: New signs of strain on public sector finance
MEXICO · Report · 23 May 2023

The Ministry of Finance’s first quarter report on public sector finances delivered plenty of evidence confirming our fears over the past year of deterioration, with increasingly limited margins' continuing to gradually become more apparent. January-March saw a significant drop in revenues that o...

Politics: Some scenarios of the presidential succession given recent developments
MEXICO · Report · 22 May 2023

Morena’s presidential nominee is supposed to be chosen based on one or more public opinion polls to ascertain which one is most popular with voters, but it is commonly assumed President López Obrador will pick the candidate, reviving one of the hoariest traditions of single-party rule in twentiet...

Economics: Marginal gains in 1Q23 fall far short of what Pemex needs, while refineries remain underutilized
MEXICO · Report · 15 May 2023

Pemex’s first quarter results delivered signs of improvement on multiple fronts even as weaker prices for its products contributed to a 53.6% drop in net income compared to the same quarter of 2022. That result also reflected a 19.1% reduction in total sales from a year earlier, as well as an ero...

Politics: Following a new Supreme Court setback, AMLO sets his sights on an improbably massive 2024 victory and more reforms
MEXICO · Report · 15 May 2023

On May 8, the Supreme Court handed the López Obrador administration another setback by declaring that a first part of the government’s Plan B electoral reforms were unconstitutional because proper legislative procedures were not followed when Congress approved them. The main objectives of the now...

Economics: 2023 growth projections upwardly revised to 1.8%, but reduced for 2024
MEXICO · Report · 09 May 2023

Consumption and gross fixed capital formation figures for the first two months of the year, as well as preliminary GDP growth data for the first quarter (3.9%) were higher than expected, leading us to upwardly revise our growth projection for 2023 to 1.8%. Although the expectation of a recession ...

Politics: AMLO’s moves against legislative branch norms and functioning are a warning sign
MEXICO · Report · 08 May 2023

A series of reforms approved by the Senate in the last few days of April are being widely viewed and criticized, not so much for their content (as in many of the cases), but rather due to the implications for the future of Mexican democracy inherent in how they were enacted. Critics among opposit...

Politics: A hard battle fought for transparency, against an avalanche of troubling reforms
MEXICO · Report · 01 May 2023

President López Obrador’s call to accelerate efforts to consolidate what he defines as the fourth “historical transformation" of the country was in evidence during the final week of the recently concluded session of Congress, in which the governing party unleashed a deluge of legislative proposal...

Economics: Economic data in April generally came in stronger than expected, but manufacturing keeps decelerating
MEXICO · Report · 01 May 2023

Economic activity in Mexico began the year with a stronger rebound than we expected in late 2022, beginning with data for January that showed private consumption had risen an annual 5.9% at the same time as Gross Fixed Capital Formation jumped 7.1%. The services sector (6.5%) was also a major dri...

Economics: Latest industrial data points to weakening of manufacturing with mining picking up the slack and construction enjoying a slight recovery
MEXICO · Report · 25 Apr 2023

Industrial activity figures for February contain decidedly mixed results. Manufacturing, which had previously served as a major driver of the recovery, extended the gradual deceleration trend it has been locked into since a major rebound in activity in the third quarter of last year. But despite ...

Politics: In the final leg of AMLO’s government, presidential confrontational style stokes mounting political and social risks
MEXICO · Report · 24 Apr 2023

With presidential elections a little more than 14 months away, President López Obrador is stepping up efforts to try and make good on the promises he made throughout his governing project despite a record in which his policy approaches and style of governing have produced results counter to his s...

Economics: Strong indicators during 1Q23, but with multiple factors that could heighten country risk
MEXICO · Report · 17 Apr 2023

Economic activity in Mexico began the year with a stronger-than-expected rebound from late 2022 as January data showed private consumption had risen an annual 5.9% at the same time as Gross Fixed Capital Formation jumped 7.1%. The services sector (6.5%) was a major driver. But the impressive ...

Politics: Poll shows success of the fight against Plan B, which suffers setbacks as new INE councilors assume their posts
MEXICO · Report · 17 Apr 2023

One of the most significant aspects of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey of registered voters was that it showed the extent to which the efforts of the INE under former Institute President Lorenzo Cordova, civic organizations and opposition parties have succeeded in winning over the vast majori...

Politics: AMLO, 4T and the economy score high in poll, despite discontent over security
MEXICO · Report · 04 Apr 2023

President López Obrador’s approval rating jumped to its highest since late 2020, perceptions of whether the country is on the right track were at their strongest since 2019, and support for prolonging AMLO’s governing project into the next presidential administration approached 50%, as did suppor...

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