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Economics: Officials boast of strengths in 2022 public finance results despite points of concern
MEXICO · Report · 06 Feb 2023

This week we analyze the main aspects of 2022 federal public sector finances and their implications. There were no real surprises in the public finance report for the fourth quarter of 2022 the Ministry of Finance released last week as it showed no deviation from the main trends in public sector ...

Politics: The Morena legislative agenda is at the service of AMLO's main political interests
MEXICO · Report · 06 Feb 2023

Now that Congress has reconvened, the administration is focused on putting the final touches on its electoral agenda as the 2024 presidential contest draws nearer. For starters, there is the small matter of the Chamber of Deputies' stripping out the "eternal life clause” from the version of the "...

Politics: A coming deluge of court cases over electoral laws
MEXICO · Report · 30 Jan 2023

A major showdown is shaping up over President López Obrador’s pending reforms to the country’s electoral laws. With the Senate expected in early February to put the finishing touches on what AMLO labeled his "Plan B", the stage is set for an avalanche of appeals and constitutional challenges to t...

Economics: Recent data points to further slowing in activity, with a slight rebound in inflation
MEXICO · Report · 30 Jan 2023

As we conclude the first month of 2023, we have been presented with evidence of cooling activity in key indicators. After consumption had been especially strong in the second and third quarters, consumer spending faltered in the two most recent months for which Inegi data is available, including ...

Politics: Opposition on the right path to compete in 2024 but with major challenges ahead
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jan 2023

The opposition has taken a major step toward mounting a serious challenge in the upcoming elections as the PAN, PRI and PRD recommitted themselves in recent days to competing as a coalition. However, a number of crucial matters remain under discussion. During the Va por México news conference at ...

Economics: Regional differences in economic activity and FDI flows
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jan 2023

It is well known at this point that economic growth in the third quarter of 2022 and during October was much stronger than anticipated thanks to greater dynamism in services and sustained rates of growth in manufacturing. But this week we turn our attention to the disparities in regional behavior...

Politics: AMLO begins the year with a major setback as the presidential succession heats up
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jan 2023

2023 is shaping up to be an especially crucial year for President López Obrador’s Fourth Transformation (4T) project, and he suffered a major, totally unexpected setback just as the year was getting underway. His preferred candidate to become Chief Justice of the Supreme Court January 2 saw her c...

Economics: Internal demand, external conditions foreshadow a weaker economy in 2023
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jan 2023

When it turned out late last year that Mexico’s GDP had accelerated in the third quarter of 2022 more than expected by either market analysts or government authorities, it prompted analysts, including those of us at GEA, to announce upward revisions to 2022 year-end GDP estimates. As we begin th...

Politics: Failed attempt to murder Ciro Gómez Leyva, one of the most influential journalists, aggravates the conflict between AMLO and critical media
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2022

The rising toll of journalists killed over the course of the past year has landed Mexico atop the "Reporters without Borders" annual list of the deadliest country for reporters, with three more such slayings this year than in war-torn Ukraine. And while 11 journalists were killed here in 2022 and...

Economics: Economy starts to lose steam on some fronts as we gear up for a challenging 2023
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2022

In this, our final issue of 2022, we provide an overview of the main economic data published in December. The headline number were the strong GDP results for the third quarter on the strength of a considerable expansion of services and an extension of manufacturing’s positive trend as some of th...

Politics: A reform designed to turn the clock back to the era of electoral fraud
MEXICO · Report · 19 Dec 2022 · 1 response

Minutes after President López Obrador’s political-electoral constitutional reform predictably went down to defeat in Congress earlier this month, he sent the Chamber of Deputies his 735-page draft of 500 changes to six ordinary laws to transform the National Electoral Institute (INE) and ostensib...

Economics: The risks that are apparent as 2022 ends will carry over into 2023
MEXICO · Report · 19 Dec 2022

The external environment for the coming year is expected to be complicated. Although inflation in the US and in the other major developed economies could ease somewhat, it will remain high and ensure that for a prolonged period we will see a continuation of the restrictive monetary policy and the...

Politics: AMLO’s approval undented by rising discontent with key policies
MEXICO · Report · 12 Dec 2022

People remain highly critical of many areas of government policy and yet continue to approve of the job President López Obrador is doing, according to GEA-ISA’s most recent quarterly survey of registered voters. The extent to which job growth has proven surprisingly robust goes a long way to expl...

Economics: Despite the multi-year fall in construction activity, a new footing is unlikely in the near term
MEXICO · Report · 12 Dec 2022

GDP results for the third quarter came in stronger than analysts had anticipated largely owing to a considerable expansion of services and an extension of manufacturing’s positive trend as some of the highest-value-added branches posted improved numbers. However, the construction industry remains...

Politics: Dueling marches mark a new unofficial start to the 2024 presidential contest
MEXICO · Report · 05 Dec 2022

President López Obrador’s mass march in Mexico City November 27 was ostensibly to celebrate his fourth year in government and to help in gauge whether "the people are happy" with his supposedly transformative governing project. In reality, it was his response to the November 13 citizens' march in...

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