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A Tight Electoral Race Indeed: No Major Changes in Policy Ahead, But Huge Challenges for the Winner
PANAMA · Report · 29 Apr 2014

After months of intoxicating electoral campaigning (with negative ads and character assassination included) on Sunday, May 4 general elections will take place. Seven presidential candidates, 71 legislative hopefuls, 77 district mayors and 648 prospective local authorities will face a voting pool ...

The Economic Consequences of a Diplomatic War: Panama against Venezuela
PANAMA · Report · 13 Mar 2014

The war scenario was the Organization of American States (OEA, in Spanish), the ever-futile forum of thirty-five hemispheric countries: (“all of us minus Cuba” as someone said). The date: February 25. The trigger event: a proposal by OEA’s Panamanian Ambassador to hold special sessions to address...

Fiscal Reforms for the Next Government …and the Canal Expansion Project is on Again…
PANAMA · Report · 28 Feb 2014

ACP announced that it had just reached a “conceptual agreement” with GUPC, the main contractor for the Panama Canal expansion project. The key elements of this new accord released on February 28th (for which the final wording is still pending) include five main conditions. The first one (importan...

Full Course Dinner
PANAMA · Report · 30 Jan 2014

According to the electoral law, candidates for the general elections must be ratified according to each political party’s bylaws three months before the May 4 event. Therefore, almost all the candidates are already in place: the menu has options for all political tastes. Fusion cuisine prevails i...

Revving Up
PANAMA · Forecast · 20 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The economy is gaining momentum, expanding 8.9% in Q3, up from 7% in Q1 and Q2 (cumulative growth of 8% through Q3, though, is still below the 10%+ of earlier years). These results are explained by a significant Q3 increase in key sectors like mining and construction, and transp...

Happy New Year?
PANAMA · Report · 04 Jan 2014

Three surprises (one because of its size, a second one internally provoked and the third, exogenously determined) were the relevant economic events of the final days of 2013 and the first day of 2014. Let us review them. The big jump in minimum wages for 2014-2015 Every two years, the Government ...

Private Sector Likely to Cushion Investment Fall
PANAMA · Forecast · 11 Oct 2013

Executive SummaryThe domestic economy is likely to have less impact on growth from 2013-2015, mainly due to the end of the government’s major investment plan, and the completion of Panama Canal expansion. But execution of major private investments in mining, energy, tourism, logistics and low and...

Earning Less, Spending More
PANAMA · Report · 30 Aug 2013

Executive Summary Activity cooled slightly in May, with the Monthly Economic Activity Index up 4.3% y/y, and 6.3% for the first five months of 2013. Both results were a far cry from the days of 10% growth. The most dynamic sectors over the past year were fishing, construction, mining, transport/s...

The Party’s Over…but the music still sounds
PANAMA · Forecast · 23 Jul 2013

Executive SummaryGrowth has lost its double-digit momentum for the first time in nearly two years, coming in at 7% in Q1, down from 10% in Q4 2012. Falling services exports, weaker global growth and trade restrictions in Venezuela and Colombia have taken a toll, as has the end of the government i...

Ready, Set, Go!
PANAMA · Report · 08 Jun 2013

All the Cards are on the Table: Governing Party has a chosen OneAccording to the two main polls in Panama, Ditcher & Neira and IPSOS, as of May 2013, there has been a significant change in the political scenario; however, both polls reflect such change in a somewhat different perspective. Accordi...

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