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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Legislative update
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Dec 2020

Congress adjourns for the Christmas holidays starting tomorrow, having passed not just the P4.5 trillion 2021 budget but measures extending to end-2021 the validity of this year’s budget and the Bayanihan 2 Act. The latter means that government is expected to miss spending targets this year but w...

November inflation rises to 3.3%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Dec 2020

Typhoon-related supply disruptions on food items pushed the headline inflation rate to 3.3% yoy, higher than the median analyst forecast of 2.7% as well as the BSP’s 3.2% high-end forecast. On average, prices went up by 1.1% month-on-month (mom), with food prices rising 2.2% attributed mostly to ...

​Unemployment rate at 8.7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Dec 2020

The statistics bureau today published the October round of its Labor Force Survey showing unemployment rate at 8.7% which compares favorably with July’s 10%. However, delving into the numbers behind the headline rate, we find: The lower unemployment rate was due more to reduced labor force partic...

Flattening the fear
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 02 Dec 2020

It is now almost nine months since the Philippines first went into lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The resulting economic recession, with GDP expected to contract by 9.5% this year, is proving much more fearsome beyond the continuing health problem. Early hopes of a quick rebound i...

​A surprise rate cut
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 Nov 2020

The Monetary Board made a surprise interest rate cut today, reducing key policy rates by 25bp which brought the overnight RRP rate to 2%. Judging by the officials’ statements during the press conference, the rate cut appears to be aimed at counterbalancing the impact on market sentiments of sever...

​Again, double-digit GDP contraction
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Nov 2020

3Q GDP fell 11.5% yoy, “unsurprising” per the planning secretary given health and public transportation constraints that kept economic activity far below limits set by government. Were it not for the sizeable shrinkage in the external trade deficit, domestic demand alone would have dragged growth...

Good news, lingering doubts
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Oct 2020

Amidst a succession of GDP growth downgrades, most recently by the IMF,[1] we are watching three developments this month that signal better prospects heading into 2021.Remittances have surprised on the upside. Monies sent home have expectedly declined but not as much as anticipated. After plummet...

Why is FDI rising?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Oct 2020

Early this week, the BSP released data showing net foreign direct investments (FDI) rising for the third straight month in July, by 35% yoy to $797 million. Following the IMF’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, 6th Edition (BPM6), FDIs represent equity and debt flo...

​Teflon President
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Oct 2020

It is all over the news, 91% of 1,200 surveyed respondents said they approved of President Rodrigo Duterte’s performance and trusted him. The survey was conducted from September 14-20, following one of the worst outbreaks of covid19 in the region and the most stringent and longest lockdowns anywh...

​The President’s speech
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Sep 2020

Last week, critics of President Rodrigo Duterte finally found something to thank him for. In his first address to the United Nations (UN) General Assembly since assuming the presidency four years ago, the President asserted the Philippine’s territorial sovereignty over disputed areas in the West ...

​Takeaways from the Fiscal Risks Statement
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Sep 2020

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) published recently its annual Fiscal Risks Statement (FSR)[1]. This year’s report covers the impact of the covid19 pandemic on government’s fiscal health over the medium-term. Below are our key takeaways of fiscal risks to keep watch of over th...

Revisiting 2021 growth outlook
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 Sep 2020

We are revising our overly pessimistic 4% GDP growth forecast for 2021. The number suggests that recovery will be in fits and starts coinciding with repeated region-wide lockdowns. While we cannot from experience rule that out, it is not our base case scenario. Rather, we expect ongoing experimen...

The employment picture
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Sep 2020

The Philippine Statistics Authority released this morning its labor force survey for the third quarter. Overall, the numbers paint an improving employment picture in 3Q following the strict lockdown in 2Q. However, the 10% unemployment is at its highest since 2004 and 17% underemployment since 20...

Walking a tightrope
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 02 Sep 2020

When we flagged a looming recession back in April and projected a deep 7% GDP contraction in May, the most pessimistic at the time, we had expected that after one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, the economy would slowly transition by year-end into a “new normal.” Although the govern...

GDP shrinks 16.5% in 2Q
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Aug 2020

The strict lockdown imposed in 2Q to curb the spread of covid-19 resulted in the steepest drop in GDP for one quarter since the time series started in the early 80s. The 16.5% GDP contraction reflects a 20% shock to domestic demand, particularly household spending and investments which fell 15.5%...

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