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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Back to mECQ
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Aug 2020

Two days after keeping Metro Manila under general community quarantine (GCQ), President Rodrigo Duterte last night returned the nation’s capital and surrounding provinces to the more restrictive modified enhanced community quarantine (mECQ) effective for two weeks from August 4 to 18. The decisio...

​Still under GCQ
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 31 Jul 2020

President Duterte announced today another 15-day extension of general community quarantine (GCQ) for Metro Manila and other key regions in the country. The decision was unsurprising despite earlier warnings of a possible return to more stringent measures due to the rising number of covid-19 cases...

A let down
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Jul 2020

Amidst criticisms that the government’s lockdown response, the world’s strictest and longest, has flattened the economy but not covid-19, many tuned in to President Rodrigo Duterte’s fifth State of the Nation Address (SONA) to hear his roadmap for recovery. Sadly, the speech was not attuned to th...

The stick for now
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Jul 2020

President Rodrigo Duterte has found himself caught between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, covid-19 cases are rising, with data from the DOH showing the 7-day average positivity rate for daily tests close to 12% compared with a little over 6% a month ago and with experts estimating the ...

Off air
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Jul 2020

Since its franchise to operate expired in May, broadcast giant ABS-CBN had been fighting a losing battle to secure a new franchise from congress. After a series of hearings by the committee on legislative franchises of the House of Representatives, the members finally voted last Friday to deny th...

Where to Philippine peso?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Jul 2020

During Wednesday’s pre-State of the Nation Address (SONA) that focused on the Duterte administration’s economic achievements this past year, one chart in particular caught our attention. Presented by BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno, the bar chart shows the Philippine peso alongside eight other east ...

ECQ, GCQ, mGCQ, etc.
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Jul 2020

Late Tuesday night, President Duterte decided to keep Metro Manila under General Community Quarantine (GCQ) for another two weeks. This, notwithstanding a plea from Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez for the country’s capital and the neighboring region of Calabarzon, together accounting for close...

Restarting economic activity
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Jun 2020 · 1 response

We noted in our last brief that: (a) the surprise 50bp monetary policy rate cut reflects authorities’ increased worries about weaker economic growth; (b) multilateral agencies’ updated forecasts this month for 2020 GDP growth, i.e., -1.9% for the World Bank, -3.8% for the ADB and -3.6% for the IM...

​Surprise rate cut
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Jun 2020

The Monetary Board (MB) unexpectedly cut policy rates by 50bp today, bringing the key overnight borrowing rate to 2.25%. It is evident from its statement that the MB is worried about economic growth. Banks are not lending as hoped, with monies parked in the BSP’s deposit facilities rising from a ...

Fiscally stimulating enough?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Jun 2020

The government statistics bureau announced Friday that the unemployment rate shot up to 17.7% in Q2[1] vs. 5.3% in Q1. It attributed the record high joblessness, about 7.3 million people (up from 2.4 million in Q1), to the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in place at the time to contain the co...

Is it the end of the world as we know it?
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 26 May 2020

Only a handful of countries can claim to have been prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic. The Philippines is not one of them. When local transmission began, the government resorted to the only tool it had to contain the outbreak: the lockdown hammer. It used this to close government and business, of...

Managing the fallout from the covid-19 crisis
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 May 2020

After revising its GDP growth target to a more realistic -2 to -3.4%, government is now crafting its economic recovery program in consultation with private sector stakeholders. I have been asked to provide feedback on the draft Philippine Program for Recovery with Equity and Solidarity (PH-PROGRE...

Negative Q1 GDP growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 May 2020

Although the Luzon-wide lockdown began only in the last two weeks of Q1, fear of covid-19 infection and international travel bans imposed earlier in the quarter had exacted their toll on the domestic economy which contracted 0.2% during the period[1]. GDP figures[2] released today show domestic d...

Government builds up cash
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Apr 2020

The Philippines today raised US$2.35 billion from international capital markets, priced at T+180 for a $1-billion 10y bond and 2.95% for a $1.35-billion 25y bond, the “lowest ever coupon” for both maturities per the National Treasurer. The borrowings come on top of some $1.8 billion secured recen...

President Duterte extends ECQ in key regions
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

President Rodrigo Duterte today announced the extension until May 15 of Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) in key parts of Luzon island deemed “high-risk”, including the three top contributors to GDP, Metro Manila (36%), Calabarzon (17%) and Central Luzon (9.8%). He also decided to transition se...

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