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​The curious case of Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 May 2018

The Supreme Court voted 8-6 yesterday to remove its chief, Maria Lourdes Sereno, from office and to declare the position of the Chief Justice vacant.The granting of the quo warranto petition, essentially asking the high court to nullify CJ Sereno’s almost six-year old appointment as chief justice...

Off to a good start
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 May 2018

GDP grew 6.8% in 1Q18, among the best in the region and in line with analysts’ estimates. Driving growth were domestic demand components, particularly:(a) household consumption, which grew 5.6% on the back of a 10% growth in peso remittances, despite rising inflation and crude oil prices;(b) publ...

A rate hike in May? (4)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Apr 2018

In its latest meeting this week, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) announced a weaker outlook on the exchange rate for its planning horizon (by P1/$ to a range of P50-53/$ from P49-P52/$) that we think will have short term monetary policy implications. The DBCC is an inter-agen...

A rate hike in May? (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2018

Headline inflation climbed further to 4.3% in March (4.8% under the old series) from 3.8% in February and 3.4% in January. The latest inflation print is slightly above the midpoint of the BSP’s 3.8-4.6% forecast for the month and what most analysts expected. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, monthl...

A rate hike in May? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Apr 2018

Market concern over the BSP’s decision to keep policy interest rates on hold appears to be growing. An early warning is of overheating risks with continuing double-digit private sector credit growth and expectations of higher public sector spending and borrowing for its infrastructure building pr...

A rate hike in May?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 Mar 2018 · 1 response

The signal has been sent. In its press statement following last Thursday’s Monetary Board (MB) decision to keep monetary policy settings on hold, the BSP “noted that inflation expectations have started to rise” and “that economic growth remains solid enough to absorb some policy tightening if war...

Inflation climbs; a new price series
PHILIPPINES · Report · 06 Mar 2018

Today the government released estimates of the February inflation rate showing prices climbing by 4.5%, up from 4% in January. The price increase, which reflects adjustments for higher consumption taxes, particularly oil excises, is slightly above analysts’ median 4.2% forecast for the month (we ...

RRR cut
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Feb 2018

On the eve of the lunar new year, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio from 20% to 19%, releasing about P90 billion into the financial system. The move was a surprising one coming on the heels of a higher than expected January inflation rate and at a time when mark...

A Sirius year
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 13 Feb 2018

Macroeconomic prospects look bright in the Year of the Dog with global growth returning to around 4% in 2018. Philippine GDP growth is expected to remain among the fastest, at 6.8% this year. Apart from rising world demand, domestic activity will gain from higher household spending and public c...

Inflation rises
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Feb 2018

The inflation rate rose to 4% in January, exceeding the 3.5% median analyst forecast for the month. Data show a full 1% increase in average January prices over the December price level, with notable increases in food prices, particularly fish and vegetables, apparently weather-related, and a rang...

Continuity ++
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 Jan 2018

​His job was going to be “the most important appointment” that President Rodrigo Duterte was going to make.That was what Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez told the President, who was then less than a year in office, about his upcoming choice for the next governor of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipin...

6.6% 4Q17 GDP growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jan 2018

4Q17 GDP grew 6.6%, slowing from the 7% growth clip in 3Q17 as the trade gap widened anew. Highlights of the latest data release include:1. Faster growth of private consumption, which at 6.1% in 4Q17, is the fastest quarterly growth for 2017. The 3Q17 growth rate was adjusted upwards from 4.5% in...

Three wishes for the economy in 2018
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jan 2018

1. Much more activity under Build Build Build (BBB), government’s massive P8.1 trillion medium-term infrastructure program that has been likened to a battleship that will be hard to stop once it has gathered momentum. The passage of the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) Act puts s...

Tax reform: down to the wire (4)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 Dec 2017

With, we learned, the Secretary of Finance in attendance facilitating discussions, the Bicameral Conference Committee on the tax reform bill pulled a couple of all-nighters since last week to finally have a reconciled version of tax package 1. The two chambers of congress are expected to ratify t...

Tax reform: down to the wire (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Nov 2017

The Senate finally passed yesterday its tax reform bill (Senate Bill 1592) on third and final reading. Even though the press release headlined a P160-billion expected yield, it left many, including the technocrats in the Department of Finance unimpressed, mainly because senators introduced certai...

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