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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Settling In
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 16 May 2017

The Duterte administration will mark its first anniversary in office in less than two months, with the business community reminded once again by parallels in the U.S. to “watch what he does, not what he says.” Indeed, the President remains highly popular and the business sector seems to be warmin...

The next Governor of the central bank is....
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 May 2017

Pres Duterte tonight named BSP Deputy Governor Nestor Espenilla to succeed Governor Amando Tetangco as head of the BSP. We think this is market positive and augers well for the economy. It also confirms what we have always said, i.e., in matters concerning the economy, the President listens to hi...

Substitute tax proposal expected to yield less
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 May 2017

The Department of Finance (DoF) today released a statement to the media reporting that the House ways and means committee passed yesterday a substitute tax reform measure that “only had moderate changes” from the DoF proposal. The longish statement, posted on its website, details the specific fea...

Inflation risk from rice policy?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 12 Apr 2017

Many economic watchers have raised concerns about recent increases in consumer prices. From below 2% in the 16 months to August 2016, the headline inflation rate climbed past 3% in February and March 2017, with the BSP expecting the uptrend to continue through 3Q17, when inflation is forecast to...

The Beast and Beauty
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017

The tale is a bizarre one. Barely nine months in office, both President Rodrigo Duterte and his deputy, Vice President Leni Robredo, are facing the prospect of impeachment. In the former case, the complaint filed before congress went on recess in mid-March sought to impeach the President for amon...

Dominguez’s tax reform?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Mar 2017

When President Duterte was asked in Tuesday’s press briefing whether he supported the tax reform bill, his answer was an unequivocal “Yes.” When pressed further about whether he also supported the increases in excise taxes on oil and automobiles embedded in the Department of Finance’s (DoF) packa...

Cock Not Bull
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 17 Feb 2017

​Against a backdrop of policy uncertainties globally and locally, we are expecting GDP to grow 6.5% this year of the rooster, sliding to 6.3% next year; not quite the bullish picture that government envisions, i.e., of growth accelerating to 7-8% by 2018. Our outlook, moreover, entails a rooster...

4Q16 GDP grew 6.6%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Jan 2017

Data released today showed the domestic economy growing 6.6% in 4Q16, sliding from the election-driven 7% growth clip in earlier quarters.Production accounts traced the slower growth to weather-related agricultural losses and moderating industry growth, particularly private construction.These are...

Dealing with an age-old problem
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Jan 2017

In the heat of the summer campaign, then candidate Rodrigo Duterte promised to raise old age pensions for private sector employees, a proposal that was vetoed by then President Benigno Aquino. Told by his economic managers after he won that granting pension increases without a compensatory revenu...

​Who will lead the BSP?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Jan 2017

The financial community entered 2017 with President Rodrigo Duterte's December threat against the Anti-Money Laundering Council (AMLC) still ringing in its ears. In his second challenge in as many months to the AMLC, which is chaired by the BSP Governor, the President said that "Tetangco is about...

​3 wishes for the economy in 2017
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Dec 2016

1. Before the cock crows on January 28 to usher in the Year of the Rooster, the Finance Department's tax reform package would have been sponsored by the Ways and Means Committee Chairman in the House of Representatives where tax bills are supposed to originate. This would send a strong signal tha...

​Fire and rain
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Dec 2016

As the body count from President Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war keeps rising – 6000 is the latest number – and the President lately admitting in a BBC interview to have killed 3 people in his Davao days – we are reminded of a long-ago observation that the Philippines has a knack for snatching defeat ...

The times they are a-changin’
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 22 Nov 2016

Change is here. In the past three months, the Philippines saw its highly popular President redefined Philippine foreign policy away from longstanding ally U.S., blessed the burial of ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos at the Heroes’ Cemetery, re-engaged communist insurgents and Muslim militants in ...

3Q16 GDP Accelerates
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Nov 2016

Bucking expectations, the local economy grew 7.1% in 3Q16, faster than the previous two quarters. The surprising performance was due to: (a) continuing strong household consumption, particularly on food and transport items; (b) sustained robust growth in fixed capital, with private construction b...

Who is afraid of Donald Trump? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Nov 2016

Summarized below is our assessment of risks for the Philippines under a Trump presidency. The most immediate impact will be on migration and remittances. Latest government data show that there are some 270,000 Filipinos working in the U.S. who are not properly documented (plus about 129,000 there...

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