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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Power Situation Update
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Mar 2015

In its latest update published today, the Department of Energy listed 240 companies that have signed up for the Interruptible Load Program (ILP) under which participants will voluntarily run their own generator sets instead of drawing power from the grid, should there be a power supply shortage. ...

Steady Policy
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Feb 2015

As the US Fed struggles with the language of its forward guidance, keeping markets on their toes, the BSP Governor has stated that any interest rate hike on its part need not be "in sync with the Fed" on both timing and size of adjustment. This jibes with our baseline read that local policy rates...

Year of the Bellwether
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 11 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Since the start of the year, financial markets have used sharply lower oil prices, expected to last for some time yet, as their bellwether, predicting continuing good fortune for the incoming Year of the Ram.Low oil prices plus the ECB’s large stimulus package and a modified Sup...

4Q14 GDP at 6.9%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Jan 2015

Government announced today a 6.9% GDP growth in 4Q14 that brought the full year average to 6.1%, exactly matching our forecast made early in the year. The big contributor to 4Q14 growth was net exports as sales of electronics products quickened and imports were held down by port congestion and st...

The Governor Say(s)
PHILIPPINES · Report · 17 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryWe sat down with BSP Governor Amando “Say” M. Tetangco last week to hear how he is reading current developments and emergent risks and how these feed into monetary policy decisions, particularly the dilemma between financial sector stability, which may require raising interest ra...

Revising Financial Prices Outlook
PHILIPPINES · Report · 11 Dec 2014

In our most recent outlook report (“Shifting Sands,” November 14, 2014), our baseline scenario took into consideration a 50bp BSP policy rate hike in 2H15 in step with a US Fed rate hike. The sands have since shifted, and following our conversation with the BSP Governor yesterday, we are now look...

GDP Growth Dips Anew...
PHILIPPINES · Report · 27 Nov 2014

Back in July this year, we wrote "the setback caused by the Supreme Court decision on public spending as well as the slowness in decongesting the Port of Manila threatens 3Q14 economic growth" and proceeded to pare our 2014 GDP growth forecast to 5.8%.("Chilling Effect", 17 July 2014 ) When Augus...

Do you have any questions for the Central Bank Governor?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Nov 2014

Every year around this time we do a Q&A with a senior Philippines government official to close out the year and publish a Special Report with conclusions from the interview. This year, in light of what we think is high market interest at this time in US Fed actions and EM central bank responses, ...

Shifting Sands
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 14 Nov 2014

Executive SummaryOnce again, greater uncertainty is spreading through world financial markets as players are forced to feel their way through changing monetary policy stances in advanced economies. Our baseline view of above 6% GDP growth for 2014 and 2015 is based on expectations that external d...

Challenging Partnerships
PHILIPPINES · Report · 16 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryAfter a false start in 2010, the Aquino administration’s flagship PPP program has finally roared to life. Several large projects have been auctioned off under seemingly competitive conditions which, contrary to model forecasts, yielded substantial revenues for government. Moreove...

Legislative Imperatives
PHILIPPINES · Report · 03 Oct 2014

We are keenly following three things now on Congress’s plate given their crucial role in keeping confidence and economic growth up in the very short term, as well as over the longer haul. The more immediate one is the President’s request for emergency powers to address a forecast shortage in elec...

Another Rate Hike Expected
PHILIPPINES · Report · 10 Sep 2014

The consensus predicts that the Monetary Board (MB), which meets tomorrow, will raise either or both the SDA and the policy rates by another 25bp.According to market players, this view has already been fully priced into current bond yields.If the MB does hike rates, it would be its fourth tighten...

Expenditures fall anew
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Aug 2014

After a 50% rebound in June, government non-interest expenditures dropped anew by 17% in July. This calls to mind the President’s warning of the “chilling effect” of the Supreme Court decision, handed down on July 1, declaring the administration’s Disbursement Acceleration Program illegal. These ...

Better 2Q14 Growth But....
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 Aug 2014

In contrast to last quarter’s disappointing performance, 2Q14 GDP growth of 6.4% turned out much better than the 6% consensus forecast and lifted this year’s average growth so far to 6%.The economy’s performance puts it ahead of most ASEAN economies. One can quickly tell from the newly released n...

Will GDP growth surprise on the upside?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Aug 2014

We agree with most analysts' expectations that 2Q14 GDP growth will exceed the 5.7% 1Q14 growth rate. It is after all difficult to ignore the surprisingly strong numbers indicating robust economic activity during the period, with even the agricultural sector posting higher gains. Oddly for us, th...

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