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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Challenging Goliath
PHILIPPINES · Report · 11 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Philippine-China relations sank to a new low last week following the Philippines’ filing of a memorial or pleading before a United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea arbitral tribunal. The memorial was in connection with the arbitration case it initiated against China earl...

Lower Inflation
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Apr 2014

Philippine headline inflation slid further to 3.9% in March, bucking market expectations of a slight pickup to 4.2%. This serves to anchor inflation expectations further and gives local monetary authorities more room to manage its exit from loose policy settings. Given relatively tame inflation n...

Divergent
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Mar 2014

Monetary and fiscal policies have diverged with the former on a tightening track and the latter loosening up some more. Revealing its primary concern at this time, i.e., of liquidity-driven increases in risk appetites, the Monetary Board opted to raise the reserve requirement on bank deposits by ...

Suddenly Hawkish
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Mar 2014

The BSP took its cue from the US Fed and signalled today a prospective rate hike when the Monetary Board meets next week. The Fed earlier indicated that it may move forward the timetable for ending its stimulus program, with markets projecting a rate hike as early as April 2015 (from July previou...

Cry Wolf
PHILIPPINES · Report · 13 Mar 2014

In this slow news period, a recent analyst report caught our eye with the title "Artificial Strength in the Current Account?" The report compared Philippine trade figures against counterpart statistics reported by some of the country's major trading partners and noted huge discrepancies in the im...

Giddyap!
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 13 Feb 2014

Executive Summary The Philippines entered the Year of the Horse on a slower trot.For now, the local mood seems to have sobered up in the face of heightened financial market volatilities and contagion talk set off by fragilities in certain emerging markets.The fear is that a lack of differentiatio...

Better-than-expected GDP growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Jan 2014

At 6.5%, 4Q13 GDP growth reached the top end of the government's revised forecast, confirming its assessment of Typhoon Haiyan's limited growth impact. Apart from the overall growth rate, the good news from the 4Q GDP release include stable, albeit slower, consumption growth (5.6%), double-digit ...

Peso In A Free Fall?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 21 Jan 2014

The peso’s “free fall”, as one headline put it, has raised worries that the country’s external payments position, which has been a major source of resilience, may come under pressure as imports to fund reconstruction and other infrastructure needs increase this year. The latest balance of payment...

Power Price Spike
PHILIPPINES · Report · 13 Jan 2014

One aspect of the 4.1% December inflation rate announced last week that was expected, yet at the same time surprising, was the increase in electricity prices. It was in part expected because the month-long (November 11 to December 10) maintenance of the Malampaya platform, which supplies natural ...

The Point Guard
PHILIPPINES · Report · 27 Dec 2013

In this, our year-end report, we print in full our conversation with Philippine Budget Secretary Florencio "Butch" B. Abad, by all accounts one of the President's most trusted men. The “point guard” on budget matters, he talks about the pork barrel controversy and its possible impact on public ex...

Government infrastructure spending down
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Dec 2013 · 2 responses

The papers today reported a 25.7% "surge" in government infrastructure spending from January to October. This is not good news. In fact, based on our calculations, the cumulative figure hides a 12.7% decline in October infra expenditures, an acceleration of the 7% fall in September. We had occasi...

Unchanged Policy Stance
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 Dec 2013

The BSP took its cue from the US Fed and signaled today a prospective rate hike when the Monetary Board meets next week. The Fed earlier indicated that it may move forward the timetable for ending its stimulus program, with markets projecting a rate hike as early as April 2015 (from July previous...

Government Spending Slows; Inflation Up
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Dec 2013

Government reported today an P11.2 billion deficit in October bringing the year-to-date overall deficit to P112.5 billion, less than half the programmed P238 billion deficit for the year.  Year-on-year changes in October revenues were flat, with growth in BIR collections slowing to 11% vs. over 2...

Trimming Growth Forecasts
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 Nov 2013

GDP growth reached 7% in 3Q13, its fifth straight quarter in the seven-and-above level.While clearly decelerating as expected from the 1H13 growth pace, it remains one of the highest in the region, surpassing growth in other Southeast Asian economies. Looking at demand-side components, the patter...

Banning Pork
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Nov 2013

Voting unanimously, the Supreme Court yesterday found the Priority Develpment Assistance Fund (PDAF), i.e., the lawmakers' pork barrel funds, unconstitutional, ordering some P14.5 billion remaining in the fund to be returned to the Treasury. On the whole, we think that this outcome is favorable t...

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