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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Trying Times
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 14 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryThese are trying times for President Benigno Simeon Aquino III. Since late July, the nation’s leader has had to face down an armed conflict in the south, deal with public anger over the theft of public funds and the pork barrel system, counter questions about the legality of his ...

Spending Restraint?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Oct 2013

Growth in government spending decelerated further in September in what may be seen as an immediate impact of the still unfolding pork barrel (PDAF) scandal as agencies have likely become extra cautious in releasing funds for projects.  Data released today showed government non-interest expenditur...

Continued Higher Remittance Growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Oct 2013

The BSP reported today continuing above-forecast growth in remittances from Filipino workers overseas.  Personal remittances, which include transfers in cash or in kind, continued to exceed $2 billion for the fifth consecutive month in August, equivalent to a 7.4% yoy growth.  The bulk of this co...

Exports up by 20.2% in August
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Oct 2013

August exports posted the highest growth rate so far for 2013 with a recorded uptick of 20.2% year-on-year, which amounted to $4.581 billion. This follows the June and July positive growth numbers of 4% and 2%, respectively. Nevertheless, the year to date growth was still down by 0.83 percent due...

Government Spending: Back to 2011?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Oct 2013

The Finance Department reported today that government non-interest expenditures grew 7.4% in August, significantly down from 30% the previous month and double-digit growth rates since April.  While we would like to see more data points before drawing a definitive conclusion, this slowdown may sig...

Surprise Positive Outlook on an Expected Investment Grade Rating
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Oct 2013

Moody’s raised today the Philippine government credit from Ba1 to an investment grade of Baa3, an action that would have been dismissed as long-delayed were it not for the positive outlook that came with it.  The positive outlook “reflects the expectation of continued economic outperformance by t...

Import Uptick
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Sep 2013

The statistics bureau reported today an 8.7% increase in July imports due largely to a 30% gain in imports of electronics materials.  This supports feedback we received earlier from local electronics makers who reported seeing improving export sales.  July total import growth is the highest so fa...

Unchanged Monetary Policy Stance
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 Sep 2013

Amidst greater financial market volatility and fund outflows from emerging markets, the Monetary Board of the BSP kept its overnight and special deposit account rates unchanged today.  The decision to maintain the overnight borrowing and lending rates at 3.5% and 5.5%, respectively and the SDA ra...

Peace for Another Time?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Sep 2013

In our Quarterly Report ("In a good place," Aug.. 8, 2013), we said that "bringing the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) fully into the fold" is a key activity for meeting a tight timetable for the peace process in Mindanao and the creation of a  Bangsamoro political entity before the end of ...

Uninspiring Export and FDI Data
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Sep 2013

For the second consecutive month exports continued to show positive but lackluster growth, inching up by 2.3% in July.  Electronic products, the country’s top export, saw its first positive yoy growth this year at 11.2 percent; however, the boost was due to base effect as electronics shipments po...

Encouraging July Fiscal Numbers
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Sep 2013

There are a number of positive signals that can be gleaned from the July fiscal performance report, including: 1. Commendable increases in tax revenues, with BIR and BoC collections rising 20% and 13.5%, both above their first half growth rates of 14% and 1.2% respectively.  Coming from its flatt...

Money Supply Jumps 30%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Sep 2013

As expected, the mandated partial removal of trust funds from the BSP's SDA facility contributed to a substantial 30% increase in M3 in July compared with an already high 20% the previous month.  In addition to accelerated growth in deposit levels, the BSP also attributed the increase to higher f...

Latest Inflation Slips to 2.1%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Sep 2013

Lower food, housing and utility price rises contributed to the decline in inflation to 2.1 % in August, below consensus forecast of 2.4%. Muted price pressures can also be seen in a benign core inflation of 1.9%.  With year to date inflation averaging 2.8%, below the low end of the central bank’s...

Differentiated
PHILIPPINES · Report · 30 Aug 2013

The better than expected 7.5% 2Q13 growth certainly brought cheer to local stocks battered by two weeks of bad news. The main stock index rose a cumulative 6.0% in the past two days following the announcement yesterday that the local economy bested other Southeast Asian countries, where growth ra...

2Q GDP Growth - 7.5%!
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Aug 2013

Philippine economy grew 7.5% in the second quarter year-on-year, surpassing analysts' forecast, the National Statistics and Coordination Board reported Thursday. The April to June quarter figure sustained the high growth momentum of the country, the fourth straight quarter of higher than 7% growt...

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