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Disinflation amidst political turmoil
TURKEY · Report · 06 Jul 2025

The final battle between Erdogan and CHP began Saturday, when three more CHP mayors were detained. Erdogan holds all the cards against a defiant Ozgur Ozel in this winner-takes-all wrestling match, which will soon witness Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas and Ozel himself being eliminated from politics, ...

Better headline, thanks to food prices
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2025

Consumer prices rose by a slightly less than expected 1.4%, m/m, in June, with the annual CPI-inflation rate easing modestly to 35.1%, from 35.4% in May. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation posted a 2.5% increase in the month, with the 12-month rate, in contrast, rising further to 24.5%, from 23.1% in...

Erdogan – Ozel feud: A temporary reprieve
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Contrary to expectations of a majority of experts, the court postponed its ruling on the CHP convention fraud case to 8 September which evoked new thinking about potential outcomes and timing. Is Erdogan making a peace offer to Ozel, or is this just a tactical pause? Spoiler alert, it is the latt...

A historic week in Turkish politics
TURKEY · Report · 29 Jun 2025 · 1 response

It is cliché, but this is going to be a truly historic week in Turkish politics. On Monday (June 30), an Ankara court will hear arguments from plaintiffs and defendants on whether there was fraud in CHP’s next-to-last grand convention, when Ozgur Ozel replaced Kemal Kilicdaroglu. In bad-case s...

Too many tipping points
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2025 · 2 responses

Turkey and the entire region are at a tipping point. As regards the latter, Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities opened up several alternative universes, in some of which the world may be struck with an oil shock reminiscent of the 1970s, or a regional war, where Turkey may be force...

MPC: Not much new or unexpected
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Jun 2025

The CBRT/MPC maintained the policy rate (one-week repo auction rate) as well as the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 46%, 49% and 44.5%, respectively, as expected. The content of the statement was little changed as well (link here and here to the new and old statements, respectively). The CBRT ...

Our hot scorchy summer gets scorchier
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jun 2025 · 1 response

Unlike the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the Iran-Israel clash poses existential threats to the Turkish economy and domestic policy, the politics author opines. He constructs 4 endgame scenarios and analyses their impact on President Erdogan’s policies. At this stage of the War Games, needless to ...

Turkish Politics: I know what you will have done this summer
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2025

Executive Summary: Fork in the road With the fall of Assad regime in Syria, Ocalan’s call for peace and the arrest of Imamoglu and several other CHP mayors, Turkey has truly reach a historic fork in the road. One path leads to a truce among rival parties and their respective constituencies, enshr...

A pre-Eid macro recap
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2025

We provide a quick overview of recent macro releases as we enter the Eid al-Adha holiday, which will last from this Friday through Monday. Although we’ve already talked about much of this stuff in our weeklies and briefs, a quick recap would not hurt, we thought. A most notable aspect of first...

An encouraging inflation print
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2025

May CPI inflation surprised to the downside, coming in at 1.5%, m/m, compared to the market consensus (and our forecast) of around 2%, with the 12-month rate thus dropping notably to a 42-month low of 35.4% from 37.9% in April. Domestic producer prices rose by 2.5%, m/m, in May, resulting in the ...

Unsettling politics, flagging economy
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2025 · 2 responses

The battle of wills between President Erdogan and the main opposition CHP reached a crescendo last week, with courts ordering the arrest of 100 suspects on charges of graft, 5 of the suspects being CHP borough and township mayors. There are credible rumors that another court will rule the prev...

Domestic demand shrinks in Q1
TURKEY · Report · 30 May 2025

The Turkish economy grew by 1% in the first quarter of the year, sequentially, which was notably less than expected (around 1.5%), while annual growth was 2.0%, y/y (Graph 1). The expenditure composition of growth is starkly different in annual vs. sequential (quarter-on-quarter) data, with domes...

On the eve of a scorching hot summer
TURKEY · Report · 25 May 2025

President Erdogan is finally leading the charge to write a new constitution, which will incidentally grant him the right to run a third time. Yet, he is facing massive obstacles, which have not lessened despite PKK’s decision to disband. Erdogan and his ally Bahceli still don’t seem to grasp that...

Not much new in the Inflation Report
TURKEY · Report · 22 May 2025

The CBRT released the second Inflation Report of the year today. As expected, the Bank maintained its yearend inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 24% (midpoint of 19-29%) and 12% (midpoint of 6-18%), respectively (as well as the 2027 forecast at 8%).

The fork in the road
TURKEY · Report · 18 May 2025

With PKK declaring an end to the armed struggle, Turkey’s half century-long nightmare of violent separatism is finally over. Now is the time to build on this success to draft a new constitution, preferably ratified in parliament to address the grievance of Kurds. Yet, exactly how Messrs. Erdog...

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