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Upcoming webinar - Turkey politics: CHP vs. Goliath
TURKEY · Report · 15 Sep 2025

Date: 16 Sep 2025 Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time As the Erdogan-controlled legal system aims to divide and paralyze the CHP with lawsuits, what countermeasures is the party's Chairman Ozel taking? Can the CHP continue as a functioning political party in the face of these attacks and the pending ...

CHP convention hearing postponed to 24 October
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Sep 2025

Contrary to majority expectations, the Ankara court trying allegations that CHP Grand Convention, when Ozgur Ozel dethroned Kemal Kilicdaroglu, was rigged, postponed its hearing to 24 October. It is not certain that the bench will reach a verdict, than, either. As I write these lines at 2 PM Ista...

Lower rates, higher political tensions
TURKEY · Report · 14 Sep 2025

There are more than 50% odds that on Monday an Ankara court will declare the Grand Convention of CHP, where Ozel toppled Kemal Kilicdaroglu, null and void, reinstating the latter as trustee chairman. The first essay explains why: Kilicdaroglu’s views are very convenient for Erdogan, who shows no ...

MPC reduces the policy rate more than expected
TURKEY · Report · 11 Sep 2025

The CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate by a more-than-expected 250 bps today to 40.5%, compared with a revised market consensus of 200 bps, with equal reductions in O/N lending and borrowing rates. To recall, until about 10 days ago, the consensus was another 300 bps cut, but this was revised down ...

Clashes in Istanbul, terror in Izmir
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025

Gursel Tekin pits CHP followers against the police: The sacked CHP Istanbul provincial administration issued a call to members to congregate in front of the headquarters “to defend our ancestral home” against invader Gursel Tekin. Several hundred heeded the call marching towards the building, whe...

MTP 2026-28: Some quick thoughts
TURKEY · Report · 08 Sep 2025

The Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2026-28 was published in the Official Gazette and presented by Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz and his economic team, including Finance Minister Simsek and CBRT Governor Karahan, at a press conference this morning. We lay out some quick thoughts below.

All eyes on CHP, MTP and CBRT
TURKEY · Report · 07 Sep 2025

The month of September will be action filled. In his first essay, the politics author tries to explain the deep web of traps the Erdogan-controlled legal system weaved for CHP, which is very difficult to recap in an executive summary. It suffices to say though that there are at least 8 lawsuits i...

CHP vs Goliath
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2025

Turkey’s Judicial year started with little fanfare, but a sucker attack on CHP’s Istanbul flank. The 45th District Court passed interim ruling. Suspending fraud in the Party’s passed delegates selection for the Grant Convention. It sacked Istanbul Chairman and the 196 delegates elected by the str...

Little respite in August inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2025

Consumer prices rose by a somewhat higher than expected 2.0%, m/m, in August, with the 12-month rate easing modestly further to 33.0% from 33.5% in July. Monthly PPI inflation posted a 2.5% increase in the month, on the back of a marked increase in energy/electricity prices, as the 12-month rate ...

Higher than expected Q2 growth, fueled by stock changes
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Sep 2025

According to data announced by Turkstat, second quarter GDP growth markedly exceeded expectations, including of this author, in both sequential and annual terms, coming in at 1.6%, q/q, and 4.8%, y/y, respectively (Graph 1). As usual we briefly focus on the sequential data here, which reflects th...

An early and a brief start
TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2025

We’ve decided to end the summer holiday of our Sunday Weekly earlier than planned, with a very brief update on the latest political and economic developments. Turkey experienced the hottest August in at least 30 years, which triggered crop failures, forest fires, and general lethargy among cit...

A brief macro update
TURKEY · Report · 15 Aug 2025

As our weekly report is on its usual holiday till September, we thought a very quick update on the past week’s developments could be useful, hence this post. In a nutshell, growth was likely stagnant in the second quarter, the CBRT Survey now places the policy rate at 35% by the end of this year,...

Inflation Report: First impressions
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Aug 2025

The CBRT released the third Inflation Report of the year today with a presentation, as usual, by Governor Karahan. Importantly, the Bank revised the framework through which medium-term forecasts are presented or communicated. Under the new approach, the Bank will separately announce “forecasts,” ...

Foreign Affairs: Victory in the North, Trouble in the South
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Aug 2025

Domestic politics is in gestation, as parties represented in the Grand Assembly ex-IYIP (centre-right nationalist) deliberate how rehabilitation of PKK militants and some of the grievances of Turkey’s Kurds can be resolved. The Peace Commission will submit draft bills to the GA when it reconvenes...

Macro thoughts
TURKEY · Forecast · 05 Aug 2025 · 2 responses

It’s been a calm summer thus far, relatively speaking, despite an uneasy and uncertain political backdrop. The latter is likely to stay so indefinitely, we think, which should start taking a toll on the economy and markets, come late this year/early next. Economic activity has generally held u...

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