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Tough and eerie times
TURKEY · Report · 27 Apr 2025

The 6.2 Richter scale tremor that shook Istanbul but caused very minor damage is a stark reminder that we are sitting on a time bomb. There is consensus among seismologists that Istanbul is due for a 7.2-7.4 quake “sometime in the future”. Of course, the question is when. On exact timing, experts...

Bahceli scenarios, CBRT reserves
TURKEY · Report · 20 Apr 2025 · 1 response

Political upheaval in Turkey is in full swing, with strong indications that President Erdogan has not given up on his objective of appointing trustees to Istanbul Municipality and CHP. The surprise is MHP leader Bahceli’s public objections to Erdogan’s plans. In the past, such public rebukes by B...

MPC does the right thing, difficult road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 17 Apr 2025

At its meeting today, the MPC/CBRT raised the policy rate by 350 basis points to 46%, compared to the consensus expectations of no change. While not ruling out a hike, we had also thought that a pause was the more likely outcome. Along with the policy rate, the MPC increased the O/N lending rate ...

CBRT’s baptism by fire
TURKEY · Report · 13 Apr 2025

President Erdogan received a delegation from pro-Kurdish Party DEM after 13 years, where reportedly PKK’s disarmament process was discussed. A tad bit more speculatively, DEM Party also laid out its 13 demands to participate in a new constitution. PKK and Syrian Kurds could start disarming for re...

Shape of things to come
TURKEY · Report · 06 Apr 2025

The politics section consists of a single essay, which attempts to answer how the current political upheaval will progress. It is relatively easy to foresee the near future, with sporadic mass protests and Erdogan trying to manage them by tactical retreats, to be reversed with sudden attacks on C...

Decent print, but brace for bumps ahead
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2025

Consumer prices rose by a less than expected 2.5%, m/m, in March (versus consensus forecasts of around 2.9%) with the annual CPI-inflation rate falling by a full percentage point to 38.1%, from 39.1% in February. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation posted a 1.9% increase in the month, lowering the 12-...

Finishing the week with FAQs
TURKEY · Report · 28 Mar 2025

As the political upheaval continues, we try to address some of the queries we’ve been receiving from our audience in this report and take stock of where things stand right before the onset of the Id holiday. We shall, needless to say, continue to update our thoughts and scenarios on both polit...

Webinar Replay - Mayhem in Turkey: Erdogan’s roadmap, the endgame and market implications
TURKEY · Report · 28 Mar 2025

In pursuit of eligibility for a third term, Erdogan has turned to coercion and foul play. What can be expected in the coming weeks? What will the impact be on macro policy and the market? How will this power play end? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring GlobalS...

Updated excel sheet on CBRT reserve data
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2025 · 1 response

We have received some requests from our audience to have an updated version of the excel file that had been attached to our semi-technical note (from earlier this month). Updated excel sheet is here, the technical note that we hyperlinked to yesterday's brief is here (for your convenience), and t...

CBRT reserve update
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025 · 1 response

There is a lot of interest in CBRT reserve numbers these days for obvious reasons, so we thought it might be useful to send our latest estimates. In the three days from March 19 through 21, we estimate that the cumulative decline in net and gross reserves amounted to $26.6 billion and $19.2 billi...

Letters from the Insane Asylum
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025

Former president Suleiman Demirel once remarked “24 hours is a very long time in Turkish politics”, which wisely describes the bind the nation finds itself in. The rival camps are moving their pieces at dizzying speed like in a Blitz chess game. Since our last writing on Sunday night, there is a ...

The day the earth stood still
TURKEY · Report · 23 Mar 2025

On Sunday, CHP mayor Imamoglu and 92 “accomplices” were found guilty of fraud and/or supporting terror organizations, with Imamoglu being sent to Silivri Correctional Facility. While it is not certain, the politics author (PA) takes a bet that the mayor will be soon replaced by a government-appoi...

On market volatility and CBRT actions: some preliminary reactions
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Mar 2025

After yesterday’s carnage in Turkish markets that reportedly led to some $10-$15 billion loss in reserves by some counts (driven mostly by foreign investor outflows, we hear), the CBRT has taken a number of actions today, which included raising the O/N lending rate by 200 bps to 46% from 44% prev...

Erdogan crosses the Rubicon, Imamoglu and over hundred names arrested
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Mar 2025 · 5 responses

Erdogan has crossed the Rubicon in his quest to regain eligibility for a third term. His choice is an all-out assault on CHP to paralyze the party, too weak to call for elections for or even maintain eligibility for them for the next year or so. Late yesterday, University of Istanbul invalidated ...

The mood music and stark realities
TURKEY · Report · 16 Mar 2025

In wone of his most rambling contributions to our Sunday Weekly, the politics author hereby suspends his baseline political scenario of early elections latest by end-March 2026. Alas, he has nothing to replace it with. The first essay explains why numerous connivences to ban Imamoglu will neither...

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