GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

We’ve reported on Q1 growth and May inflation data last week, which, in a nutshell, leave us with a stagflationary picture, with economic activity barely moving sequentially, and annual CPI inflation edging up further to 32.6% (from 32.4% in April). The rebound in manufacturing sector PMI in M...

May inflation: still badly stuck

TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2026

CPI inflation was 1.7%, m/m, in May, slightly above expectations, with annual consumer price inflation edging up to 32.6%, from 32.4% in April. With monthly domestic PPI inflation at 2.75% in May, the 12-month PPI rate also rose -- to 28.9%, from 28.6%.

Stagnation in the first quarter

TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2026

The Turkish economy grew by 2.5%, y/y, in the first quarter of 2026, lower than market expectations (2.7%) and the 3.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Sequentially, i.e., on a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth continued to lose momentum visibly, barely moving in the quarter (0.13%, q/q),...

Mayhem @CHP: some thoughts

TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2026

As we had announced last Sunday, there will not be a weekly report today because Turkey was on holiday during much of last week. But politics was not, as the two CHP leaders – now dubbed by the local media “appointed” (Kemal Kilicdaroglu) vs “elected” (yet now ousted, Ozgur Ozel) – continued to b...

Under pressure

TURKEY · Report · 24 May 2026 · 3 responses

With the stroke of a gavel, CHP was returned to former chairman Kemal Kilicdarolgu, triggering a bitter and legally murky leadership battle. The politics author nevertheless thinks court-deposed chairman Ozgur Ozel has the upper hand, and if he loses the legal battle for the soul of the party, re...

Waiting for (a bunch of) Godot(s)

TURKEY · Report · 17 May 2026

At home, President Erdogan broadened his war against CHP with the specter of a closure suit against the latter, new probes against city mayors and ongoing recruitments. As the politics author stated in last Sunday’s Weekly, Erdogan is waiting to see how the Iran War (or the Gulf Conflict) ends...

Webinar replay: Iran War and Turkey's macro outlook - What changed?

TURKEY · Report · 15 May 2026

What impact will the war in Iran have on Turkey's economic outlook? Will the conflict create short-term economic pain but potentially lead to long-term gains? What is the trajectory of monetary policy, and how is the CBRT positioning itself? How effectively is President Erdoğan managing the assoc...

Target up, forecast up, band out

TURKEY · Report · 14 May 2026

In today’s much-anticipated Inflation Report, the second of the year, the CBRT raised the interim target to 24% from 16%, the yearend inflation forecast to 26% (from 18%, midpoint) and discontinued the practice of providing a forecast band around its midpoint forecast, the latter because of excep...

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst

TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2026

In domestic politics, there is not much to write home about. President Erdogan seems to have put all urgent domestic policy issues, such as how to get rid of CHP indefinitely on hold, pending the outcome of the Iran War, to which the politics author stubbornly refers to as the Gulf Crisis. This p...

Near the interim target already

TURKEY · Report · 04 May 2026

Monthly CPI inflation surprised notably to the upside in April, coming in at 4.2%, m/m, compared with the (median) market expectation of around 3.2%, with the 12-month CPI-rate increasing materially by 1.5 pps to 32.4%, from 30.9% in March. Monthly domestic PPI inflation was 3.2% in April, markin...

Early elections, trip notes, etc.

TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2026

Since President Erdogan needs early elections to be eligible for the next presidential race and with only two years left to the deadline for regularly scheduled ones, it is natural that this topic will steadily increase in importance. Despite numerous alleged election dates swirling at the scuttl...

The year of living dangerously

TURKEY · Report · 26 Apr 2026 · 1 response

There is no sign that the Iran War will end anytime soon, with most experts now warning that the Straits of Hormuz may remain shut for months to come. Turkey has managed the spillover from the war adroitly – so far, judging by the success of the strong TL policy and her sticking to a line of stri...

Words vs deeds

TURKEY · Report · 22 Apr 2026

The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate unchanged at 37% at today’s meeting, broadly in line with the consensus. The statement notes that the “underlying trend of inflation declined in March” but that “leading indicators suggest a slight increase” in April. It also states that the effects of geopolitic...

Nightmare on Elm Street

TURKEY · Report · 19 Apr 2026

The phrase “mutlak butlan” (fully null and void) made it back to the politics lexicon a second time, as the scuttlebutt claims Kemal Kilicdaroglu will soon be appointed as trustee to CHP. Meanwhile, MHP leader Bahceli took the axe to his party’s provincial organizations during the week, dissolvin...

Back to square one

TURKEY · Report · 12 Apr 2026

It came to no experts’ surprise that Islamabad talks collapsed in day one, because going into these Iran and the US had completely opposing proposals and narratives about what the politics author (herewith, I) call the Gulf Crisis. Both Iran and the White House fervently believed they are winning...