Country Insights

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First thoughts on 2022
TURKEY - Forecast 16 Jan 2022 1 response
We deviate a little from our quarterly report format in this round because of the extremely uncertain context, sharing some preliminary thoughts and qualitative scenarios for 2022 instead. The ongoing “experiment” around the New Economic Model (NEM), which is unsustainable, in our view -- beca...

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Webinar Replay: Turkey 2022 Outlook Webinar
TURKEY - Report 14 Jan 2022
​​Cut through the uncertainty and understand what's ahead for Turkey in 2022. Visit our events calendar to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada discussing Turkey’s macro and political outlook.

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2022: Something has to give
TURKEY - Report 09 Jan 2022 2 responses
The politics section of the first Weekly report of the year is dedicated to establishing a road map for 2022, as well as going over our main scenario and predictions. President Erdogan and his AKP-MHP alliance didn’t receive a windfall in polls despite massive fiscal largesse, as rampant poverty ...

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​The Palace strikes back
TURKEY - In Brief 06 Jan 2022
It has become cliché to say so, but tensions in politics escalated further, as Erdogan threatened protestors with violence, while press accounts report an indictment against CHP’s popular Istanbul mayor Mr. Ekrem Imamoglu. These strikes are Erdogan’s last bullets in the area of intimidating the o...

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​2022 starter kit for Turkish Politics
TURKEY - In Brief 04 Jan 2022
While we were away, “business as usual” prevailed in Turkish politics.For those who really need a starter kit, “business” is discretionary government running amok, uncertainty rising by the day, as well as unbearable static electricity in the air. It sounds disingenuous to write a Market Brief, t...

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​A big surge in inflation, more to come
TURKEY - Report 03 Jan 2022 1 response
Consumer prices rose by a much higher than expected 13.6%, m/m, in December, with 12-month CPI inflation hence finishing the year at 36.1%, up from 21.3% in November. It is worth highlighting that this is the highest consumer price inflation number since September 2002, and the largest miss (of t...

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The last charts of 2021
TURKEY - Report 30 Dec 2021 1 response
In this last econ report of 2021, we share a few pictures --and a bit of text-- on the latest (macro) state of affairs. Growth has remained stronger than envisaged throughout the year, but inflation has surged, too, likely exceeding 30% in December. We think an abrupt slowdown in economic acti...

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​The indexation scheme: some tentative scenarios
TURKEY - In Brief 21 Dec 2021 3 responses
The Ministry of Treasury and Finance released a one-pager today (link here; in Turkish) providing a bit more detail on the planned F/X-indexation scheme. As we wrote yesterday, and it is now widely available in open media sources, the scheme aims to protect TL deposits against exchange rate-drive...

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​Quick reactions to TL’s sharp appreciation
TURKEY - In Brief 20 Dec 2021 2 responses
After weakening past the 18-mark against the USD, the TL appreciated dramatically after President Erdogan’s statements this evening (link here). Although markets are too illiquid to attribute too much significance to this very sharp movement, it appears to have been triggered by Erdogan’s announc...

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​Heads Up: Anything can happen this week, but probably nothing will
TURKEY - In Brief 19 Dec 2021 2 responses
On Friday, the main Turkish stock index collapsed suddenly, triggering two trading halts, as anecdotal evidence emerged of increased cash withdrawals from banks. It is difficult to imagine Turkish financial markets finding an equilibrium level this week, as first economy czar Mr. Nurettin Nebati,...

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Done - and now what?
TURKEY - Report 16 Dec 2021 2 responses
The CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate (the weekly repo rate) by another 100 bps today to 14%, broadly in line with expectations (or shall we say, as feared?) bringing the cumulative cuts since September to 500 bps (see chart).

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What a fine mess we are in
TURKEY - Report 12 Dec 2021 1 response
In two recent briefs (A First Take On An Unprecedented Experiment, November 21, 2021, and This Time Is Different, November 28), we have laid out our thoughts on Ankara’s so-called New Economic Model, and speculated on a few near-term scenarios -- namely, the “good” (it works), the “most likely” (...

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​Regarding Kemal Kilicdaroglu
TURKEY - Report 06 Dec 2021 1 response
Over the weekend, the Financial Times published an expose about CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 11 years after he ascended to the throne of the party. I predict with 73.496% confidence that the WSJ and the Economist shall follow suit, thus it became incumbent upon me to steal the march on them.

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Inflation jumps in November, but this is just a beginning
TURKEY - Report 03 Dec 2021 2 responses
Consumer prices rose by 3.5%, m/m, in November, higher than the consensus of around 3%, with the 12-month rate increasing further to 21.3% from 19.9% in October. Producer prices rose by a whopping –though not so surprising (given the direct effects of currency weakness and higher energy prices in...

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Growth composition changes in Q3
TURKEY - Report 30 Nov 2021 1 response
Economic activity expanded by 7.4%, y/y, in Q3, down from (a heavily base effect-driven) 22% in Q2, while in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms, GDP growth quickened to 2.7%, q/q, from 1.5% (revised up from 0.9%) in Q2.