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Relative calm at home, chaos abroad
TURKEY · Report · 22 Feb 2026

The Peace Commission unveiled it is not-so-eagerly awaited report to the Grand Assembly, which covers matters related to the dissolution of PKK and fate of Ocalan, as well as suggestions for democratization. The Grand Assembly will start debating the proposals after Ramadan. While the PKK portion...

Ministerial changes, IMF reflections
TURKEY · Report · 15 Feb 2026

President Erdogan changed his Interior and Justice Ministers at a delicate juncture in the Peace Process. The former Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya was offered as the sacrificial lamb to MHP, as the minister’s habit of purging nationalist high-ranking cops irritated the junior partner. The new n...

Next move most probably a 100 bps cut
TURKEY · Report · 12 Feb 2026

The CBRT held its first Inflation Report meeting of the year today. As expected, the Bank kept its interim targets unchanged at 16% for 2026 and 9% for 2027, while setting an interim target of 8% for 2028. But the Bank revised its 2026 year-end inflation forecast range upward by two percentage po...

A little bit of this, a little bit of that
TURKEY · Report · 08 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Turkey’s (Kurdish) Peace Process got a boost from a new peace deal in Syria, but at home the going is very slow and torturous, because Peace Committee members can’t find a way to finesse Ocalan’s “right to hope” in their report to the Grand Assembly. President Erdogan is changing tack in his C...

Keep calm and carry (on)
TURKEY · Report · 04 Feb 2026

Preventing regime change in Iran has become the number one policy priority for Ankara, which is rightfully mindful of negative spillovers across the border. The politics author thinks a peace deal between Iran and US-Israel is not very likely, thus sharing Ankara’s concern. At home, it is calm...

Inflation: a challenging start to 2026
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2026

Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 4.8%, m/m, in January, with the 12-month CPI rate therefore easing only slightly to 30.7% from 30.9% in December, while producer prices rose by 2.7% (January 2025: 3.1%, m/m) with the 12-month rate easing to 27.2% from 27.7% in December. The key driv...

A new Turkey story: under construction
TURKEY · Report · 02 Feb 2026

Legendary and immortal Market Guru, the Cosmic Strategist (myself) decided to make an unsolicited return from His self-imposed retirement, to herald loudly that Turkey is building a new and very positive story based on four pillars, almost none of which the Cosmic Strategist believes are priced i...

About our report schedule
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Feb 2026

Dear Colleagues/Readers: We were compelled to postpone our monthly report, which was planned for today, to mid-next week. There will be no weekly report today. You can always reach us over the platform for any questions you may have. We are grateful for your understanding. GSP Turkey Team

MPC: check, Fitch: check, Syria: check
TURKEY · Report · 25 Jan 2026

The politics author starts his analysis with a heads-up which is not covered in the main body of the Weekly: Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan suspects Israel is about to attack Iran, a suspicion seconded in numerous international media sources. The Mullah regime falling without a clear successor, o...

CBRT surprises on the cautious side
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jan 2026

Compared to forecasts of a 150 bps cut (including ours), the CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate by a more modest and cautious 100 bps today to 37%. There were two relatively minor changes in the statement. Regarding January inflation, the Bank noted that “[w]hile leading indicators suggest that mon...

A brief lull in excitement
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jan 2026

Much fun has gone out from domestic politics as, for reasons to be explored, President Erdogan unilaterally ceased his attacks on CHP. Instead, the new agenda is his succession plan, involving his son Bilal. Erdogan has no intention to retire; Bilal is being groomed for the post in case of an eme...

Dull economy, hectic politics
TURKEY · Report · 11 Jan 2026 · 1 response

This week’s political essays start with foreign policy developments, covering allegations of illicit relations between Maduro and Turkey, Iranian unrest and the beginning of the end in Syria in the showdown between Kurds and al Sharaa. Herein in the short-term good scenarios are few. In the first...

We entered the New Year, now exit quickly
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Jan 2026

Greetings from a planet that makes no sense and harbor few intelligence specimens, Earthlings. In the short span of a couple of weeks during which our team took a breather from machine-gun speed report writing, a pause which in my case lasted longer on account of my traditional winter upper respi...

Benign headline, same underlying challenges
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jan 2026

December CPI inflation came in at 0.9%, m/m, broadly in line with expectations yet marginally lower than ours, with the 12-month rate ending the year at 30.9%, down from 31.1% in November. This is just under the lower end of the forecast range of the November Inflation Report (of 31–33%), yet mar...

An econ-only start to the New Year
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jan 2026 · 1 response

As our politics author is dealing with a nasty flu, this is an econ-only weekly. He will provide his update in the next few days. Growth indicators that are now available for the full fourth quarter of last year – namely, manufacturing sector PMI and confidence indices – show tangible improvem...

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