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Upcoming webinar - Turkey: Fundamental change or business as usual?
TURKEY · Report · 23 Apr 2024

What does Erdogan's defeat in the municipal elections mean for Turkey? In response, will he rely on pragmatism or return to heterodoxy? When will the next elections take place? Please join us for our live webinar discussing the implications of Erdogan's political losses for Turkey's macroeconomic...

Many questions, no answers
TURKEY · Report · 21 Apr 2024

While President Erdogan promised change after the defeat of the AKP-MHP alliance, so far, he has neither taken any steps, nor has he provided any hints about new policies, save in economics. Pro-AKP press claims he is biding his time, but the first essay in the politics section concludes the Pres...

Reserves up, politics sideways
TURKEY · Report · 14 Apr 2024 · 1 response

The politics author analyses the reasons for AKP’s stunning defeat, concluding that while President Erdogan’s mistakes did play a role in the defeat, by no means were they the primary factor. It is very difficult to fix these mistakes anyway. Voters who migrated from AKP to ultra-Islamist New Wel...

No more excuses
TURKEY · Report · 07 Apr 2024

A week after the municipal elections, Turkey is still in shock, including her political class. While experts debate why AKP lost and CHP won, the first clues suggest that victory may be the beginning of a sea change, rather than a one-off incident. President Erdogan seems aware of what has gon...

Disinflation, ersatz disinflation, mayhem
TURKEY · Report · 05 Apr 2024

“There is nothing new except what is forgotten” * Last Sunday’s election outcome leaves us with interesting, yet at the same time pretty obvious questions: Where do we go from here? What does it mean for Minister Simsek’s “program”, as well as – more broadly speaking – his tenure? What will th...

March inflation: no major surprise
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2024

Consumer prices rose by 3.2%, m/m, in March, somewhat below consensus (likely on the back of somewhat softer food inflation), with the 12-month CPI inflation nevertheless increasing further to 68.5%, from 67.1% in February. Domestic-PPI posted a 3.3% increase, which led to another relatively sign...

CHP’s astounding victory confounds politicians, analysts and Yours Truly
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Apr 2024 · 1 response

With each passing hour, a different aspect of CHP’s local election victory emerges from the details of final tallies, confounding the political class, and of course humble analysts, like myself. I shall provide fuller account of the magnitude of the victory, focusing in this Brief on political an...

Preliminary results: CHP juggernaut steamrolls over AKP
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2024

With 55% of the votes tallied, CHP has not only kept Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, but also edged out AKP in the national vote. While some races are still too close to call, CHP may cross the finish line with only one major loss, namely the earthquake capital Hatay. On the other hand, it seems to h...

Our (in)famous last words
TURKEY · In Brief · 29 Mar 2024

Executive Summary With an abject lack of enthusiasm and deep trepidation, the politics author attends to his duty of sharing his final predictions for municipal elections and beyond. If polls are to be believed, which is a big IF, CHP has sealed the deal in Ankara and Izmir, with the latest three...

The Plot Thickens
TURKEY · Report · 24 Mar 2024 · 2 responses

Battle lines are frozen across the nation with one week left to elections. AKP-MHP have probably lost Ankara and Izmir and are struggling to make any gains against Imamoglu in Istanbul. CHP is sweating to keep its fortresses elsewhere, such as Antalya, Eskisehir and Edirne. While nothing can be r...

A good surprise, but road ahead no less difficult
TURKEY · Report · 21 Mar 2024

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBRT surprised markets positively today by raising the policy rate by 500 bps to 50%, versus median expectations of no change. The MPC also adjusted “the monetary policy operational framework by setting the overnight borrowing and lending rates 300 basis...

It's all about the MPC
TURKEY · Report · 17 Mar 2024

The races in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir turned largely static during the week, while new poll data from Anatolia was full of surprises. The politics author is confident in calling Ankara and Izmir for CHP incumbents, while Imamoglu stands a good chance to edge out AKP’s Kurum in Istanbul. Yet,...

It's crunch time, again
TURKEY · Report · 10 Mar 2024

With three weeks left to the poll day, available evidence suggests that CHP has wind in its sails, across the nation. Of course, this is part of the natural cycle of Turkish elections, where CHP always leads only to be defeated by last-minute “policy innovations” of Erdogan. Yet, this time around...

Poor print, a very tough road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 04 Mar 2024

Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 4.5% in February, with the 12-month CPI inflation rising visibly to 67.1%, y/y, from 64.9% in January. Producer price inflation was 3.7%, m/m, with the 12-month PPI-rate also rising to 47.3% in February, from 44.2% in the previous month. The slippage...

March spells survival of the fittest
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2024

The politics author hereby presents his preliminary predictions for local elections. In a nutshell, things are not looking good for President Erdogan at the moment. Ankara may have already slipped out of his grasp, while AKP candidate Kurum’s chances in Istanbul are no more than 50% in his view. ...

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