GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In our Quarterly I argued forcefully that early elections will not take place before March-April 2028, while still stick to my baseline, a recent statement by CHP’s court appointed chairperson Kemal Kilicdaroglu is certain to stoke a second round of heated debate about the timing of early electio...

Forecasting in a witch’s cauldron

TURKEY · Forecast · 25 Oct 2026

The context is eerie and highly fluid, as the fund scandal --or “Fonzi” as it is colloquially called-- shows no sign of abating, which makes forecasting ever more difficult even by Turkish standards. We try anyway. We expect economic activity to continue to stagnate, as growth ends the year at 2....

MPC cuts the policy rate by 100 bps, signals more to come

TURKEY · Report · 22 Oct 2026

The CBRT/MPC lowered the policy rate (one-week repo rate) 100 bps to 36% today, while also adjusting the O/N lending and borrowing rates by equal amounts, in line with the consensus. In the descriptive part of the statement, the Bank now comes across more confident regarding underlying inflati...

A most critical MPC on deck

TURKEY · Report · 18 Oct 2026

President Erdogan proclaimed an end to the fund crisis, as judicial operations against CHP-run municipalities and MPs stepped up. Also, Turkey’s leading pro-opposition broadcaster Halk TV was taken over by the SDIF. Is this the rallying call of Erdogan’s final assault against the opposition nexu...

TURKEY · Report · 11 Oct 2026

AKP scored a major coup in its endless recruitment drive by snagging CHP Izmir mayor Cemil Tugay. The logic is obvious, the more mayors migrate to, or municipalities are captured fair and foul, the more voting districts where AKP can increase its votes by providing superior service. But, does add...

A break of sorts in a long journey

TURKEY · Report · 05 Oct 2026

CPI inflation was a lower-than-expected 1.8% m/m in September (compared with median expectation of some 2.2%), with annual CPI inflation declining to 29.7% from 31.5% in August, falling below the 30% mark for the first time since December 2021. The surprise seems driven by a sharper than expected...

Fast politics, slow economy

TURKEY · Report · 04 Oct 2026

President Erdogan belatedly grasped that the fund scandal could cost him a large amount of votes, and decided to bite the bullet and compensate all victims to the tune of TL1 million, max. In the end, all holders of funds with the suspect assets managers will be compensated at the principal value...

Where do we stand?

TURKEY · Report · 27 Sep 2026 · 1 response

Turkey’s fund scandal is by no means over, with small odds of contagion in the fund industry and a confidence crisis in equities. The conversation is shifting to AKP connections of alleged manipulators, with a deputy chairman of the party resigning on Saturday, pending an investigation. Contrary ...

Transfers, scandals, reserves, etc.

TURKEY · Report · 20 Sep 2026

There is still almost a year and a half to the earliest date for elections, our politics author maintains, but President Erdogan has already begun planning. With constitutional talks potentially delayed to early 2027, because PKK is not laying down arms, his only viable path to re-eligibility is ...

BIST in the throes of its biggest crisis

TURKEY · Report · 17 Sep 2026

After dropping a whopping 6% in Wednesday’s trading, Borsa Istanbul main index BIST-100 regained its composure Thursday morning, gaining 2% by 11 am . Yet, the scandal that triggered yesterday’s harrowing selloff had not passed. This post, written as of 11 am Turkish time, shares some preliminar...

Read my lips, says our politics man

TURKEY · Report · 13 Sep 2026

Early elections has become the number one topic of Turkish social media pundits, which is finding some support among market participants, too. Turkey will hold early elections, but no earlier than 2Q2028, our politics author maintains. The first essay thus explains why arranging early elections i...

MPC: gearing up for an October cut?

TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2026

As expected, the CBRT/MPC left the policy rate unchanged at 37% today. The statement was not very different either, in which the Bank reiterated the ongoing demand weakness and acknowledged that “elevated energy prices amid geopolitical developments pose an upward risk to the inflation outlook.”

On the political agenda and today’s MTP

TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2026

Our autumn coverage in politics start with the review of the agenda, which promises to be turbulent and chock full of surprises. Messrs. Ozel and Yavas will be eliminated from the presidential race before 2027, the politics author thinks, while progress in the (Kurdish) Peace Process may trigger ...

August inflation: more of the same

TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2026

Consumer prices rose by 1.8% m/m in August, slightly below median expectations, with the annual CPI inflation edging down slightly to 31.5% from 31.8% in July. Domestic PPI increased by 2.6% m/m in August, raising the 12-month PPI inflation rate slightly to just under 30% (27.9%) from 27.8% in Ju...

Net Exports Drive Q2 Growth

TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2026 · 1 response

The Turkish economy grew by 2.3% y/y and 1.1% q/q in the second quarter of the year, slightly down and considerably up from the previous quarter, respectively. As usual, we focus on the quarterly (sequential) growth rates here to better gauge the cyclical state of the economy. The strong Q2 grow...