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Upcoming Webinar - Iran War and Turkey's macro outlook: What changed?
TURKEY · Report · 13 May 2026

Date: 14 May 2026 Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time What impact will the war in Iran have on Turkey's economic outlook? Will the conflict create short-term economic pain but potentially lead to long-term gains? What is the trajectory of monetary policy, and how is the CBRT positioning itself? How e...

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst
TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2026

In domestic politics, there is not much to write home about. President Erdogan seems to have put all urgent domestic policy issues, such as how to get rid of CHP indefinitely on hold, pending the outcome of the Iran War, to which the politics author stubbornly refers to as the Gulf Crisis. This p...

Near the interim target already
TURKEY · Report · 04 May 2026

Monthly CPI inflation surprised notably to the upside in April, coming in at 4.2%, m/m, compared with the (median) market expectation of around 3.2%, with the 12-month CPI-rate increasing materially by 1.5 pps to 32.4%, from 30.9% in March. Monthly domestic PPI inflation was 3.2% in April, markin...

Early elections, trip notes, etc.
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2026

Since President Erdogan needs early elections to be eligible for the next presidential race and with only two years left to the deadline for regularly scheduled ones, it is natural that this topic will steadily increase in importance. Despite numerous alleged election dates swirling at the scuttl...

The year of living dangerously
TURKEY · Report · 26 Apr 2026 · 1 response

There is no sign that the Iran War will end anytime soon, with most experts now warning that the Straits of Hormuz may remain shut for months to come. Turkey has managed the spillover from the war adroitly – so far, judging by the success of the strong TL policy and her sticking to a line of stri...

Words vs deeds
TURKEY · Report · 22 Apr 2026

The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate unchanged at 37% at today’s meeting, broadly in line with the consensus. The statement notes that the “underlying trend of inflation declined in March” but that “leading indicators suggest a slight increase” in April. It also states that the effects of geopolitic...

Nightmare on Elm Street
TURKEY · Report · 19 Apr 2026

The phrase “mutlak butlan” (fully null and void) made it back to the politics lexicon a second time, as the scuttlebutt claims Kemal Kilicdaroglu will soon be appointed as trustee to CHP. Meanwhile, MHP leader Bahceli took the axe to his party’s provincial organizations during the week, dissolvin...

Back to square one
TURKEY · Report · 12 Apr 2026

It came to no experts’ surprise that Islamabad talks collapsed in day one, because going into these Iran and the US had completely opposing proposals and narratives about what the politics author (herewith, I) call the Gulf Crisis. Both Iran and the White House fervently believed they are winning...

The year of our regression
TURKEY · Report · 05 Apr 2026 · 1 response

The year 2026 is likely to go down in the annals of history as “the Year of Our Regression”, when the Iran War first halted and then began to reverse all progress made in healing the wounds of the Covid-19 pandemic. The war is unlikely to end before June or thereabouts, the politics author believ...

Better than expected headline, tough road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2026

Consumer prices rose by a somewhat lower than expected 1.9% in March, with the 12-month rate declining to just under 31%, from 31.5% in February. Monthly PPI inflation was 2.3% in March, leading to a modest increase in the 12-month PPI rate to 28.1%, up from 27.6% in the previous month. Benign fo...

Something has to give
TURKEY · Forecast · 29 Mar 2026

With no quick resolution in sight to the ongoing regional conflict, the econ author shares some illustrative forecasts as to what the Turkish macro outlook could look like, should, contrary to consensus, this shock prove permanent, rather than temporary. In a nutshell, the stagflation-like mac...

Too many known unknowns
TURKEY · Report · 22 Mar 2026 · 1 response

At the end of the third week of the Iran War or Gulf Crisis, its expansion, damage to supply changes and neighboring economies have become devastating. Our job is to make predictions about the Turkish economy and politics, but without understanding how long the war might last, what its permanent ...

It will probably get worse before it gets better
TURKEY · Report · 15 Mar 2026

As the war in Iran enters its third week, it has progressed faster, harder and broader in geographical scope than any expert imagined. This is now a war of attrition, with no clear outcome. To make matters worse, Trump seems to be wavering between his advisors who suggest a graceful exit, and tho...

CBRT switches to a wait-and-see mode
TURKEY · Report · 12 Mar 2026

As expected, the CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate (together with the O/N lending and borrowing rates) unchanged today at 37%, stressing heightened geopolitical risks, the deterioration in the risk appetite and higher energy prices. In the statement, the reference to “step size” (regarding the magnit...

Iranian missiles, bank trials
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2026

I’ve bad news and good news for you. The bad news is Iran lobbing a second missile in the direction of the Incirlik Airbase. The good news is the Trump administration closing the forever-lasting Halkbank money laundering prosecution. Since I still think Iran War has weeks to go, I’m concerned abo...

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