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An election to end all elections
TURKEY · Report · 24 Feb 2019

The Politics Section begins with a brief exposition to introduce the rival camps in Turkey at the eve of March 31st local elections, which boils down to AKP-MHP versus CHP-IYIP, the latter with tacit support of pro-Kurdish HDP in non-Kurdish majority provinces. Poll data, more scarce compared to ...

Time for Plan B in pork-barreling?
TURKEY · Report · 17 Feb 2019

As economic data published in January-February reveal an economy mired in recession, and the few polls available to public suggest AKP-MHP failing to gain ground, the administration may be switching to Plan B in electoral populism, namely fiscal and monetary expansionism. Unconventional methods o...

Reinventing populism
TURKEY · Report · 10 Feb 2019

A recent AREA poll confirms our assertion that the AKP-MHP alliance is slipping in nation-wide standings, while city-by-city polls by several agencies reveal it could lose three key races to the opposition. The primary reason behind voter discontent appears to be poor economic management, which P...

Food up, core down, service sticky
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Feb 2019

January consumer price inflation, at 1.06%, m/m, came in broadly in line with expectations, taking the 12-month rate marginally higher to 20.4%, from 20.3% a month earlier. Twelve-month domestic-PPI inflation continued to decline, though at a much slower pace than in recent months, to 32.9% from ...

Can the Fed save us again?
TURKEY · Forecast · 03 Feb 2019

Last year ended better than feared by some measures, markets have been constructive on Turkey so far this year and now the Fed, recoiling from recent market turbulence, has signaled that it is probably finished with rate hikes for now, and moreover, that the balance sheet runoff may end sooner th...

Inflation Report: The CBRT reiterates its intention to stay tight
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Jan 2019

The CBRT released this year's first Inflation Report today. The 2019 year-end inflation forecast, as we had expected, was revised down by 0.6 percentage point to 14.6% (midpoint of 11.9%-17.3% band) from 15.2% previously (i.e. in the October Report), which is also lower than the 16.5% analysts' f...

Eerily calm before elections
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jan 2019 · 1 response

Our thesis is that so far moderate and unconventional pre-election stimulus failed to attract the unusually large share of undecideds to AKP, but preserved the fragile balance in the currency and bond markets. We pose answers to three known unknows, namely who the undecideds are, how they are lik...

Stuck between austerity and poor voter sentiment
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jan 2019 · 2 responses

It is incumbent upon the Turkey observer and investor to understand the import of a victory in municipal elections for the ruling AKP-MHP alliance. Upsets in Ankara and/or Istanbul, or a visible drop in the joint vote of the alliance could jeopardize its future in power. This is the framework in ...

MPC leaves rates unchanged, as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Jan 2019 · 2 responses

In line with the consensus, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate (one-week repo rate) at 24% (simple) today. Recall that this is the third consecutive meeting that the Bank left rates unchanged, since it had raised the policy rate by 625 bps on September 13th (see chart...

​Towards a deal with US in Syria?
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jan 2019 · 1 response

The ebb and tide of the bromance between presidents Erdogan and Trump ought to be subject of inquiry for Hollywood screen writers and psychologists, but as a humble political commentator, I’m compelled to focus only on the very boring angle of Syria, which is one of the most pressing points of te...

Having the cake and eating it, too
TURKEY · Report · 13 Jan 2019

We are deviating from the weekly format today -- having sent our brief politics update on Friday (Good Tidings, Citizen, January 11, 2019) -- and provide a quick rundown of recent data releases, and share some thoughts on this coming Wednesday’s rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC...

​Good Tidings, Citizen
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Jan 2019

Dear All, I’ll be out of town for the weekend to launch my third book, thus skipping my weekly contribution to the knowledge pool of the world. I thought it would be appropriate to comment on municipal elections, the winning of which moved to the center of AKP policymaking and new threats by Fore...

Election economics takes odd twists
TURKEY · Report · 06 Jan 2019

Winning local elections has become the sole priority for AKP, around which all policy decisions, including those concerning foreign affairs shall revolve between now and March 31st. There are very few polls, but plenty of commentary from pollsters. Trying to correlate those as impartially as o...

Inflation ends the year not as high as feared, but pretty high nevertheless
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jan 2019

Consumer prices dropped by 0.4% in December, broadly in line with consensus forecasts, ending the year at 20.3%, y/y, further down from 21.6% in November and a peak of 25.2% in October, which, incidentally, corresponds to the worst yearend performance since 2002, when we were in an entirely diffe...

​Turkey in Syria: A realignment, more than an opportunity or risk
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Dec 2018

I thought the best New Year’s gift to our audience will be to leave them alone during the festive season, because most political news from Turkey is bad news. Alas, the tradition continues and I must end the year with the prediction of the “first crisis in 2019”.As much as the word crisis is over...

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