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Economy in 2018, in pictures
TURKEY · Report · 28 Dec 2018

• We have decided to revive an old tradition of ours in this final report of the year, that of looking at the economics of the full year, (mostly) in pictures -- hoping that you’ll find it useful. • Needless to say, 2018 was a very tough year especially for Turkey, as an emerging market-unfriend...

​New dynamics in Syria and Turko-American relationship
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Dec 2018 · 1 response

The agenda is moving at a speed faster than light for me to write the Big Picture piece I’ve been yearning for. Anyway, there is no Big Picture left anymore, Trump has smashed everything into bits and pieces. His sudden and unannounced decision to pull US troops out of Syria, while still subject ...

At the end of an era, searching for new directions...
TURKEY · Presentation · 17 Dec 2018

Turkey’s growth model looks as if it has run out of steam, with recent developments indicating that this phase is looking different (for the worse). We look at Turkey’s recent economic history and give a summary of the country’s current situation. Outline: • A little history, context, summ...

​On Syria and domestic tensions: Political risk is rising
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Dec 2018

Since my last comments on Turkey’s stated intention to invade North East Syria, it made irrevocable commitments to carry out its promise. Negotiations with White House are presumably underway, which will delay the execution the military campaign, but room for compromise is very narrow. At the end...

MPC: Policy rate kept at 24%, as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Dec 2018

In line with the market consensus, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rate (one-week repo rate) unchanged at 24% (simple) today, at the last meeting of the year. Recall that after raising the policy rate by 625 bps at its September meeting (on September 13th), the Bank had kept ...

​HEADS UP: Erdogan promises military campaign East of Euphrates
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Dec 2018

Erdogan and other senior members of his administration including Defense Minister retired Gen Hulusi Akar openly stated that Turkey will launch a military campaign in North-East Syria (East of Euphrates) to shut down “the terror corridor”.The target area is controlled by a pro-PKK Kurdish entity ...

MPC preview+
TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2018

The Monetary Policy Committee will meet tomorrow (December 13, 2018). The consensus forecasts we’ve seen from multiple media sources uniformly anticipate no change in short-term rates. We strongly concur with the consensus, although, given the Bank’s track record, we would never completely rule o...

Growth slows sharply in Q3
TURKEY · Report · 10 Dec 2018 · 3 responses

After registering annual growth rates of 7.2% and 5.3% in the past two quarters, GDP slowed markedly to 1.6% in the third quarter of the year, which was somewhat weaker than expectations. Much more notably, however, GDP contracted quite a bit sharper than expected in quarterly terms (working-day ...

​General Flynn and Muhammed bin Salman
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Dec 2018 · 1 response

I’ve been tardy in contributing to GSP Turkey research output, even though I am itching to write a Big Picture essay. My writer’s block is caused by the lengthy road trip of the towering figure in Turkish politics, President Erdogan. There is still very little background on his critical summit wi...

November inflation drops sharply on lira, taxes, food
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Dec 2018 · 1 response

Consumer price inflation surprised on the downside in November, coming in at negative 1.4%, m/m, dropping about twice faster than the consensus forecast (around 0.7% drop). Twelve-month CPI inflation fell sharply as a result, to 21.6%, from 25.2% in October. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation was als...

Is the worst really over?
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2018

In this econ-only report, we share our latest thoughts on the recent macro developments in a Q&A format, as our politics author thought he would be much better positioned to update our esteemed readers soon after the G20 meetings are concluded. Markets are constructive on Turkey’s economic pro...

A perverse improvement in fundamentals
TURKEY · Report · 25 Nov 2018

The title for this week's report refers to perceptions of improved political stability as well as of economic fundamentals – of a perverse kind -- because especially the latter hugely worry us in the medium-term, but could do wonders for investors in the very short-term. As President Erdogan a...

Enjoy it while it lasts
TURKEY · Report · 18 Nov 2018 · 1 response

Relations with the US could improve further, if the Trump administration decides to probe Pastor Gulen’s involvement in the 2016 aborted coup. In any case, we detect few landmines in the diplomatic landscape for Erdogan, who has a very strong incentive to preserve the status quo with the US, Germ...

Local election dilemmas
TURKEY · Report · 11 Nov 2018

With less than five months left to critical municipal elections, AKP is rapidly losing support from voters. This means that it shall henceforth focus on the economy and elections, trying to preserve the status quo in foreign policy. The need to balance Kurdish and nationalist votes require tou...

October inflation: a relative moderation
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Nov 2018

Consumer price inflation came in at 2.7%, m/m, in October -- higher than the market consensus of around 2%, m/m -- with the 12-month rate hence rising further to 25.2%, from 24.5% in September. Domestic-PPI inflation was 0.9%, which meant a moderate decline in the 12-month rate to 45%, from 46.2%...

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