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​Post-vacation agenda:Pastor Brunson is joined by Idlib Crisis
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2018

It was anything but a tranquil Eid al-Fitr in Ankara. Despite public denials, backdoor negotiations to end the stalemateabout Pastor Brunson and other American detainees in Turkey moved ahead without a break-through. Theseefforts were joined by shuttle diplomacy between Ankara and Moscow, as Assa...

A post-holiday recap
TURKEY · Report · 24 Aug 2018

Before another -- most likely -- volatile week starts on Monday, after this week’s calm thanks to the long religious holiday, I thought a quick (economics-focused) sequel to our last joint-piece (The Week of Fear and Loathing, August 12, 2018) might be useful. What has helped us get through the m...

Turkey Conference Call: Crisis in Turkey - How does it end?
TURKEY · Report · 15 Aug 2018

How much more can the crisis between TURKEY and the US deepen? Is there a way out for Turkey? What are the implications for contagion?​

The week of fear and loathing
TURKEY · Report · 12 Aug 2018

The authors of this note agree that Turkey is on the verge of a historic moment, where the outcome entirely depends on President Erdogan’s “reaction function”. Neither of us are trained in clinical psychiatry or mind-reading, which means that our interpretations of what the Great Leader might be ...

​Clarification: BRSA denies meeting with banks
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Aug 2018 · 1 response

I’ve reported this morning that BRSA has called an emergency meeting with banks. I’ve based this market brief on reports from Bloomberg News and IPA, both of which were linked at the end of the commentary. Later BRSA denied such a meeting was called. Nevertheless, my contacts with several bankers...

​BRSA calls emergency meeting with banks
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2018

I don’t know if any of our audience checks her mail box on Saturday, but this can’t wait until Monday. Bloomberg as well as IPA International Press Agency claim that Turkey’s banking authority BRSA has invited banks, leasing and factoring companies to an emergency meeting on Saturday to assess th...

Armageddon or Salvation
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Aug 2018 · 1 response

The basic scenario we have outlined in our recent Quarterly, i.e. Silver Linings Playbook, is playing out much faster with the crunch-time having arrived a lot sooner than we had imagined. Punished mercilessly by markets, Ankara has 24 hours to make a life-or-death decision. President Erdogan is ...

​Do or die weeks for Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2018

Opposing reports suggest that either a compromise has been reached to resolve the “cleric crisis” between Turkey and US, or new sanctions are underway. Either way, I think these are “do or die “ weeks for Ankara, which is not only in trouble with US, but also struggling to put together a fiscal p...

Food inflation slows, helping headline
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Aug 2018

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 0.55% in July, compared with consensus expectation of 0.9%-1% (July 2017: 0.15%), which kept the 12-month rate a bit under 16% -- for now (15.85%). Producer price inflation continued to edge up, so did core (C-index) and service inflation, however, wh...

The Silver Linings Playbook
TURKEY · Forecast · 02 Aug 2018

Turkey has marched to the end of a cul-de-sac, faced with a ‘no-choice’ between a painful belt-tightening program and restoration of relations with the West, or risking further economic deterioration and political instability. With global economy growing at a relatively healthy pace, monetary nor...

​Father Brunson case: White House reads the riot act
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2018

24 hours after “terror suspect” pastor Andrew Brunson was released to house arrest, White House signaled in the strongest possible terms that he needs to be sent home, lest Turkey suffers “large sanctions”. Turkish officials responded with indignation, but the die is cast. This is clearly a break...

​Father Brunson’s fate tells many tales
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2018

Dual elections and the excruciating summer heat didn’t bring tranquility to Turkish politics or peace of mind to the long-suffering political analyst of GSP- Turkey team, who is selflessly sacrificing his vacation to serve his audience. On Wednesday, a Turkish court suddenly ruled to remand Pasto...

MPC disappoints, keeps rates unchanged
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2018

At today's meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee did not change any of the short-term interest rates, keeping one-week repo rate (policy rate) at 17.75% and O/N lending and borrowing rates at 19.25% and 16.25%, respectively (see graph). Recall that at the June 7th meeting, the MPC had ‘overdeliv...

​Albayrak talks the talk, but….
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Jul 2018

Our rookie economy impresario Mr. Berat Albayrak can really talk the talk, but can he walk the walk?On his way back from Argentina where he attended the G-20 summit Albayrak had a long chat with journalists, a brief summary of which can be found in the link. He is quoted as: “Albayrak, who is in ...

​Fiscal excesses, monetary uncertainties
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Jul 2018

We take a quick look at last week’s June budget data and preview the upcoming MPC meeting. Recall that we put our Weekly Update on holiday, and will issue a political update on Monday.June BudgetThe Central Government budget ran a TL25.6 billion overall, and TL23.2 billion primary deficit in June...

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