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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

18 July prevented me from writing a monthly
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2018

GlobalSource Partners Turkey team has sent its Weekly Reporton vacation until end of August and canceled its joint Monthly, not because we ran out oftopics to cover, but because the fast pace of events require more frequent and narrowly-focused analysis. As far as Yours Truly, the humble Politica...

New structures, old challenges
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jul 2018

The new economy czar Mr. Albayrak made his first remarks on the economy, which were encouraging, but lacked specificity. Needless to say, delivery and implementation will be the key, which, to say the least, is an extremely challenging mission to fulfill under the circumstances. In fact, with no ...

​All the president’s men?This is all?
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Jul 2018

President Erdogan’s first Cabinet decidedly underwhelmed expectations, as none of the star names from the private sector joined it, while last vestiges of conventional economic thought were purged. The appointment his son-in-law Mr. Berat Albayrak to the newly-formed powerful Ministry of Treasury...

HEADS UP: Babacan and Simsek rumors
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Jul 2018

I don't trade in rumors, but the sudden two-way moves in dollar/TL require some explaining.In early hours of the day rumors spreading from different sources, perceived as credible claimed Simsek, and even Ali Babacan have been appointed to the Cabinet. Murat Cetinkaya will be asked to resign. In ...

The presidential epoch about to begin
TURKEY · Report · 08 Jul 2018

President Erdogan will unveil his Cabinet on Monday night at 9:30 pm. He hinted that it may contain mostly technocrats. Ankara’s point men with markets and creditors, Messrs. Simsek and Agbal may not be part of the new team. The new personnel will be probably selected on their “closeness” to the ...

Inflation surges, chastening forecasters
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jul 2018

Consumer prices rose by a whopping 2.6% in June – at a rate about twice faster than the consensus -- which raised the 12-month rate to 15.4%, up from 12.1% in May. We are now looking to CPI inflation ending the year in the 14%-15% range, mechanically speaking, though we shall shortly revisit this...

Post-election reflections
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jul 2018

Contrary to the gloom and doom permeating the international press, our politics author greets last Sunday’s elections as a significant victory for the Turkish democracy, with his long-term optimism significantly elevated by the vibrancy of the campaign and the intangible victories scored by the o...

​(B)ahceli for Victory
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jun 2018 · 1 response

These are my first impressions, which are likely to evolve during the course of the day. It is too simplistic to say “Erdogan and AKP-MHP have won, and nothing will change”. First, AKP has lost big, dropping 7 handles vs. November 2015 general elections. Erdogan has only clinched victory, because...

​Final Post: Erdogan and AKP-MHP win, unofficially speaking
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2018

I must stop my coverage before the final drama starts to be able to serve my audience fresh and early tomorrow. Despite its promises beforehand, at 12:15 midnight, the High Election Council is yet to announce the preliminary results of the elections. This minor detail has not stopped Erdogan from...

Third Post: Erdogan readying for “balcony speech", opposition disputes AA reports
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2018

According to independent Haberturk TV, Erdogan has won in the first round, and he will “soon” make another one his famous balcony speeches. While other mainstream broadcasters are more circumspect, already Mahmoud Abbas and İlhan Aliev congratulated Erdogan for his victory. At home MHP leader Bah...

​Second Post:Erdogan and AKP-MHP likely to win
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2018

With 80-85% of the ballot counted, official media heralds a 4 point lead for Erdogan in the presidential race, while AKP-MHP has a daunting 55 seat majority in the Grand Assembly, as pro-Kurdish HDP scrapes by the 10% qualifying hurdle. The Fair Election website is still down, while the single op...

​First Post: Erdogan and AKP-MHP lead amidst conflicting claims
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2018

At 8 pm Istanbul time, the vote count is proceeding much faster than I had anticipated, thus I decided to start my entries one hour before the scheduled time.Currently, main stream media relying on Anatolian Agency, shows Erdogan leading with 56% of the vote, followed by Muharrem Ince at 29%.In g...

You can read me later
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2018

We are fully aware that this Brief won’t make the top item on your weekend reading list, but since we will not release a weekly report this Sunday (because of elections), we thought we should quickly touch upon some of the developments and data releases of the past week – for the record. May b...

​Final Words: Polls and undertows
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Jun 2018 · 1 response

It is time to express my personal thoughts on 24 June election results, and the landscape in their aftermath. Gods willing, I shall start posting comments on this website starting 10-11 pm on Sunday night, to be followed by a brief early Monday.There will be no Weekly Report this week. While thes...

Cohabitation, contagion, contraction
TURKEY · Report · 17 Jun 2018 · 2 responses

In the final week before elections, Erdogan’s lead in the presidential race looks insurmountable, but not large enough to seal the deal in the first round. While we discus some downside scenarios for Erdogan, we are confident in our forecast of a second-round victory over the CHP candidate Muharr...

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