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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Some Turkish banks are under U.S. Treasury investigation
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2017

Turkish markets made a poor start to the week, partly driven by Dollar Index strength, but definitely demoralized by the ongoing controversy over potential fines by the U. S. Department of Treasury to be levied on six Turkish banks. In particular the severe plunge in the banking index of the Ista...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 22 Oct 2017

Sundays have become synonymous with the word “crisis” in Turkey. We start with unconfirmedand not too credible news of the U.S. State Department getting ready to levy fines on some Turkish banks for violating Iranian sanctions, which might disturb markets on Monday. At home, President Erdogan’...

Kirkuk reverts to Baghdad, Kurds in disarray
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Oct 2017

The disputed Iraqi city of Kirkuk rapidly fell to Iraqi Army, as Kurdish peshmerga forces withdrew after putting up symbolic resistance. It appears that divisions between deceased national hero Mr. Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) tacitly cooperating with the approaching Iraqi Army, ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 15 Oct 2017

As the Turko-American visa ban enters its second week, hopes for a compromise are high, but concrete developments are meager. Ankara continues to implicate the American “Deep State” in the July 2016 coup attempt. Escalation of the conflict is unlikely, but the mutual ban appears here to stay. ...

​Visa ban stand-off: Further escalation unlikely
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2017

Finally, I’m able to write a few intelligent lines about the visa ban stand-off between US and Turkey. The good news is that neither side seems to have an incentive to ratchet up the conflict. The bad news is that a climb-down is not likely in the short-term, barring a break-through in an impendi...

​Turkey-US visa crisis: If I knew, I’d tell you
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Oct 2017 · 1 response

I have been receiving a great deal of questions regarding the visa crisis between Turkey and US since this morning. It physically pains me not to write an analysis about it, but at this point I don’t have a handle on the crucial question of how this episode of tensions will play out. Yet the conc...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 08 Oct 2017

As the Free Syrian Army units sponsored by Turkey enter rebel-controlled Syrian province of Idlip, Turkey is on the verge of a second military adventure in the neighbor. This one promises to be bloodier than the Euphrates Shield, but it is a necessity to retain a say in the future of the war-torn...

Demand Pressures All the More Evident
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2017

At 0.65%, consumer price inflation came in broadly as expected in September, lifting the 12-month rate to 11.2%, up from 10.7% in August. Producer prices were broadly stable in 12-month terms, but at a highly elevated 16.3% rate (Graph 1; Table 1). Despite a (seasonal) monthly fall, 12-month f...

MTP: Sorry, But It Doesn’t Hang Together
TURKEY · Report · 27 Sep 2017

Today the government announced the broad outlines of its Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2018-20. What we have below is our preliminary reactions, based on the presentation (in Turkish) made by the authorities. We shall follow this up with more thoughts, if need be, once the full document and more...

Fundamentals vs. Rabbits
TURKEY · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017

Turkey’s risk profile is set to rise gradually, probably culminating in a series of elections to begin by mid-2018. Growth this year has been saved, but in the absence of new “tricks” or “rabbits” it is likely to slow next year to around 3%.

Winter Is Coming
TURKEY · Report · 24 Sep 2017

The referendum by Iraqi Kurds, assuming it is held, doesn’t pose a major threat to Turkey’s unity, but its aftermath is almost certain to require Turkish involvement in Iraqi affairs in unpleasant ways. Turkey’s descent into the Middle Eastern “event horizon” will accelerate as Turkish Forces mak...

TL’s baptism by fire begins early
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Sep 2017 · 1 response

Fed’s FOMC decision created some unease in EM currencies, as the Dollar Index and U.S. long-yields rose somewhat, but the TL took a big hit, while the Istanbul Stock Exchange, now renamed BIST-100 Index substantially decoupled from peers in a negative way. Turkey’s exaggerated response to Fed con...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 17 Sep 2017

In the short-term, political risks that are relevant to markets and the economy remain modest to moderate, but we predict gradual escalation through 2018. Ankara, as well as all regional governments, is worried about the independence referendum by Iraqi Kurds, but there is no formula to stop it. ...

It’s Tight, But Is It Tight Enough?
TURKEY · Report · 14 Sep 2017

As expected, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept all short-term rates unchanged today (one-week repo rate at 8.0%, O/N lending and borrowing rates at 9.25% and 7.25%, respectively; and LLW rate at 12.25%; see chart). Recall that the Bank has been keeping average and marginal funding r...

Construction, Exports Drive Q2 Growth
TURKEY · Report · 11 Sep 2017

Turkish economy expanded at a broadly expected 5.1% rate in Q2, y/y, after a similar performance in Q1 (of a slightly upwardly-revised 5.2%). In quarterly/sequential terms, growth accelerated to 2.1% in Q2, up from previous quarter’s 1.3% rate. On the expenditure side, based on year-on-year d...

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