Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Headline Drops Further on Food, Lira
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2017

Consumer prices dropped by 0.27% in June, m/m, which compared favorably to consensus expectation of some 0.1% increase (June 2016: 0.5%). The 12-month rate hence declined more than expected to 10.9% from 11.7% in May. Producer prices also eased to 14.9%, y/y, from 15.3% in May, but remains rather...

Justice march and Syria needs monitoring
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2017

I’ve returned from a 15 day business trip to USA, where I had met representatives from roughly 35 institutions. I’ll provide more details in the upcoming Weekly Report, but in a nutshell interest in the Turkey story is strong, while positioning is light, which I expect to increase only very modes...

Pre-Holiday (Contrarian) Musings
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jun 2017

Turkish markets will be closed on Monday-Tuesday, as part of the end-of-Ramadan holiday (Eid Al-Fitr) that starts over the weekend. We thought it’d be useful to recap some of the recent data releases and share a few somewhat contrarian thoughts on where things stand on the economy front. Turki...

​CHP deputy sent to prison, chairman hits the road
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jun 2017

First, allow me to remind my audience that I'll be out of the country until 1st of July during which time my access to e-mail will be limited. If you need to contact me, GlobalSource Partners NYC office is your best bet. I had sincerely hoped that you wouldn’t have to, since up until a day ago, p...

MPC Remains On Hold As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jun 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision was broadly as expected. The Bank kept all its rates unchanged, i.e. the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) at 12.25%, the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 9.25% and 7.25%, respectively and the one-week repo rate at 8.0%.

GDP and BOP Prints: Initial Reactions
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jun 2017

The economy grew at a better-than expected 5% pace in Q1, y/y, compared with the consensus (and our) forecasts of around 3.5%. Our forecast slippage stemmed from stronger growth in both private and public consumption, which were markedly higher than the rates we had factored into our bottom-up ap...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 11 Jun 2017

We find political risks acceptable in the short-run, though political stability is only skin-deep beyond the autumn/winter of 2017. At home, Cabinet reassignments and the new road map are delayed either because of the Qatari Crisis or by the counsel of PM Yildirim, who wishes to work with his cur...

Headline Lower, Trends Challenging
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2017

Consumer prices rose by 0.45% in May, slightly higher than expected, but the 12-month rate declined as envisaged, to 11.7% from just under 12% in April. The drop in producer prices was more significant, which eased from 16.4% to 15.3%, y/y, suggesting that cost-push pressures have begun to ease, ...

Don’t Worry, Be Happy–For Now
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jun 2017

Turkey is enjoying an exceptional period of political calm, albeit one enforced by an iron fist. The impending cabinet change is unlikely to signal better policies or early elections. On the other hand, during the transition from the parliamentary to the presidential regime, policy visibility is ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 28 May 2017

President Erdogan’s meetings with key EU leaders at the sides of the NATO Summit helped defuse tensions and confirmed the mutual desire to reengage. Yet, concrete progress is difficult. EU handed the President a list of reforms to be undertaken in the next 12 months, at which time the relationshi...

Erdogan speech underwhelms, hopes rest on road map
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 May 2017

As I expected, Erdogan’s long-winded acceptance speech after his election to AKP chairmanship was frustratingly vague on promises of reform and restoration of democracy. Erdogan will now focus on overhauling his party, the local administrations and the bureaucracy to create a seamless machine to ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 21 May 2017

The politics section has been penned before AKP’s Extraordinary Convention where President Erdogan was expected to make a major policy speech. The first essay is dedicated to explaining why it is hard to take promises of a more liberal order or more democracy seriously. Erdogan’s primary objectiv...

The Road to November 2019
TURKEY · Forecast · 14 May 2017

After a narrow and somewhat contentious YES victory at the April 16th constitutional referendum, Turkey has achieved political stability of sorts, but as it is unlikely to translate to more democracy or better relations with the key Western allies, it is a tenuous one at best. Our base-case scena...

Trump to arm Kurds, to anger Turks
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 May 2017

President Trump finally made the long-anticipated decision to arm the Syrian Kurdish militia named YPG currently battling alongside Arab forces to liberate Raqqa from DAESH. Turkey labels YPG and its political branch PYD as a terrorist outfit, because of their deep ties to Kurdish separatist PKK....

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 07 May 2017

Today’s Weekly Update starts with a report from the Frankfurt Global EM conference organized by Toronto Dominion Securities and Global Source Partners, where interest in Turkey was buoyant, yet risks were underestimated, in our opinion. On the political front, at home, AKP officials deny rumor...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.