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Trump to arm Kurds, to anger Turks
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 May 2017

President Trump finally made the long-anticipated decision to arm the Syrian Kurdish militia named YPG currently battling alongside Arab forces to liberate Raqqa from DAESH. Turkey labels YPG and its political branch PYD as a terrorist outfit, because of their deep ties to Kurdish separatist PKK....

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 07 May 2017

Today’s Weekly Update starts with a report from the Frankfurt Global EM conference organized by Toronto Dominion Securities and Global Source Partners, where interest in Turkey was buoyant, yet risks were underestimated, in our opinion. On the political front, at home, AKP officials deny rumor...

The Road to November 2019
TURKEY · Presentation · 04 May 2017

Turkey will retain its current policy settings through the November 2019 general elections. Theoretically, Erdogan could initiate a substantive change in course, but in practice, he faces insurmountable challenges. Trend growth appears to be slowing due to lack of reform, lack of inflows, too mu...

April Inflation Broadly As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2017 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by 1.3% in April, broadly as expected, taking the 12-month rate up to just under 12% (11.9%), from 11.3% in March. Likewise, 12-month producer prices rose further to 16.4% in April, from 16.1% a month earlier, suggesting cost push pressures continue (Table 1; Graph 1). The s...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 30 Apr 2017

The politics section is dedicated to a long-term assessment of Turkey’s policy path on the political front, which is necessitated by the switch to the Executive Presidency. While President Erdogan will finalize his policy mix in June, initial omens are inauspicious. There is no signal of moderati...

MPC: Tighter, Yet Still Behind
TURKEY · Report · 26 Apr 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rate by a further 50 bps today to 12.25%, atop last meeting’s (March 16, 2017) 75 bps hike, while keeping all other short-term rates unchanged (see chart). The consensus was “tilted toward” no change of the LLW rate (as we...

Turkey’s ”European vocation” in jeopardy
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2017

Last year, European Parliament passed a non-binding resolution to suspend Turkey’s accession negotiations with EU. Yesterday, The Parliamentary Assembly of European Council (PAEC) reduced Turkey’s membership to “monitoring” status, citing the State of Emergency and the detention of large number o...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 23 Apr 2017 · 1 response

We begin by laying out the evidence about the fairness of the referendum voting. From a legal viewpoint, the High Election Council ruling to count the unstamped ballot slips weakened voter security and made it difficult to detect fraud. On the other hand, there is not enough evidence that the HEC...

Is the legitimacy debate relevant?
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Apr 2017

It is my duty to provide objective and relevant coverage of political events in Turkey. Objectively speaking, I see evidence serious enough to suggest that voting irregularities in the presidential referendum warrant a very serious probe. But, is the legitimacy of the ballot relevant? Could the o...

​Attention shifts from legitimacy to hawkish policies
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Apr 2017

CHP, HDP and at least two of the dissidents of nationalist MHP are lodging complaints about voting irregularities with the High Election Board (HEB). I hear a torrent of allegations about voter intimidation and wholesale theft or doctoring of votes, of which one sample is linked here but I’m unab...

​Erdogan promises capital punishment, as opposition furious about irregularities
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Apr 2017 · 3 responses

Since the chairman of the High Election Board (HEB) certified (unofficially) the YES victory, I can declare Mr. Erdogan the first executive president of Turkey. The margin was slim; YES side garnered only 51.4% of the eligible votes. The resilience of the NO vote, despite the almost insurmountabl...

YES camp wins a narrow victory, I suppose
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Apr 2017

As I write these lines, PM Yildirim is giving his victory speech, because Turkey’s semi-official news agency Anatolian Agency announced the results of the presidential referendum. The constitutional amendments granting president Erdogan broad executive powers were approved by a margin of 51.3% to...

Last words before the referendum
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Apr 2017 · 1 response

First, I’ll be a holding a conference call with Global Source Partners audience Wednesday afternoon 10 am U.S. Eastern Standard Time, I encourage all readers to participate to receive a broader update and commentary on today’s developments. (Pls consult our New York head office for details). We w...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 09 Apr 2017 · 1 response

With only seven days left to the polls, “the expert opinion” heralds YES camp gaining momentum. Our updated poll-of-polls still reveal a very tight race. AKP will probably win because it dominates the electoral system, but readers ought to be ready for Sunday night surprises. We look for clues...

Inflation Already Exceeds 11%
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2017

Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 1% in March, which raised the 12-month rate to 11.3%, up from 10.1% in February. Producer prices also rose sharply to a 12-month rate of 16.1%, up from 15.4% (Table 1; Graph 1). Contrary to consensus expectation, CPI-inflation going over the 11% mark...

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