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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Terror and tourism
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2016 · 1 response

Another deadly car bomb killed seven policemen and four civilians in the old city district of Vezneciler (Istanbul) today, while injuring 36, of whom 3 are reported to be in critical condition. The bomb was so powerful that two historic mosques, a hotel and a co-ed dormitory were partially damage...

Weekly Tracker: June 5-11
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2016

An Armenian genocide bill that was passed by the lower chamber of the German parliament hurt Turks’ feelings, but it is unlikely to lead to substantive sanctions by the government. On the other hand, the Refugee Deal is dead and Turkey-EU relations are unlikely to be a matter of economic or marke...

Benign May Print Should Help the MPC
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2016

Consumer prices rose by 0.6% in May, m/m, same as last year, which left the 12-month rate unchanged at 6.6%. Food prices dropped in May for seasonal reasons, but less so than in May last year, taking the 12-month food inflation up to 2.5%, from 1.4% in April (Table 1; Graphs 1-2). Key disinflatio...

Turkey offers U. S. joint action in Syria
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 May 2016

We had just predicted a very hot summer for Turkey, when a scorching weather front started spreading from Syria. First, Syrian Defense Forces led by PKK-affiliated Kurdish militia called YPG has been advancing towards ISIS’ capital Raqqa with several news items in the Turkish press claiming that ...

Lights, Tunnels and Trains
TURKEY · Report · 29 May 2016

The Yildirim Cabinet is staffed with capable people, but has a fluffy economic agenda. With Mr. Simsek de facto reduced to the status of a PR person, monetary and fiscal policy will be run from President Erdogan’s Palace. We expect more crackdowns on dissidents and a more hawkish foreign policy. ...

Simsek-mania won’t last
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 May 2016

With our monthly coming up in a few days, I want to defer my detailed remarks on the composition of the new administration and potential policy path to that publication to focus on market outlook with the help of the Cosmic Strategist. The gist of our message after yesterday’s CBRT O/N lending ra...

Easing Cycle Continues, As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 24 May 2016

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the O/N lending rate by another 50 bps to 9.5% (simple) today, in line with our and the majority of market players’ expectations. The other two rates – O/N borrowing and weekly-repo – were left unchanged (Graph 1).

The reign of Yildirim starts with great peril
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 May 2016

AKP’s unanimously elected chairman Mr. Binali Yildirim was appointed by 7 pm Sunday as PM-designate by president Erdogan. He is expected to unveil his Cabinet on Tuesday, the first task of which will be the introduction of a mini package of constitutional amendments to the Grand Assembly to allow...

On Today's Vote and Tuesday's MPC
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 May 2016 · 3 responses

In a rather surprising development, the Turkish parliament voted today to lift the immunities of some 139 MPs from prosecution. (Click here and here for basic media coverage). Recall that the first round of voting was held on Tuesday, but the parliament had failed to pass the two proposed amendme...

​Immunities vote adds to political uncertainty
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 May 2016

Debating and voting all night, the Turkish Grand Assembly failed to secure the 367 votes necessary to ratify the two amendments to lift the immunities of those deputies who are under indictment or already convicted of various crimes. The motion to advance to voting of the two articles of the prov...

Are these the last days of Mehmet Simsek in the administration?
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 May 2016

Luck has it that I must leave town on a family matter between Wednesday and Sunday, leaving you without updates until early Monday hours regarding developments in AKP. I’m hoping to fire out a final update early Wednesday to report on the outcome of the first round of voting for the lifting of th...

Week of May 15
TURKEY · Report · 15 May 2016

Starting with this week, we begin to fit together the pieces of Turkey’s multi-dimensional political puzzle. Our top candidate for premiership remains Mr. Binali Yildirim, though Messrs. Bekir Bozdag or Ismet Yilmaz can’t be ruled out. We can’t guarantee that economy czar Mehmet Simsek will retai...

​AKP has made its choice
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 May 2016

It is 90% certain that AKP will introduce a mini package of Constitutional amendments to the Grand Assembly by mid-June to allow the president to remain a party member. Called “the semi-presidential system” in the Turkish political lingo would presumably allow Erdogan to retain the party chairman...

Weekly Tracker: May 8-14
TURKEY · Report · 08 May 2016

Prime Minister Davutoglu’s departure illustrated the highly unpredictable nature of Turkish politics, lending further credence to our scenario of steadily rising risks for the rest of the year. We can’t guarantee that Deputy PM Mehmet Simsek will retain his post in the new government, or struct...

​Farewell to Davutoglu..and parliamentary democracy
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 May 2016

At the day the EU Commission proposed lifting the visa barrier to Turkish citizens, president Erdogan decided to dismiss premier Davutoglu, denying him the biggest victory of his brief career and demonstrating convincingly that parliamentary democracy is dead in Turkey. To remind readers, Erdogan...

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