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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Welcome to a Turbulent Spring
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2016

The politics section is dedicated to explaining AKP’s three contradictory policy goals; the building of a patronage society at home, gaining regional influence and fitting in with the Western alliance. The growing threat from PKK and Syrian Kurds, as well as Russia, rendered immediacy to the acco...

Impressive Headline, Details Not So...
TURKEY · Report · 31 Mar 2016

Turkish GDP expanded by an impressive – and a higher-than-expected – 5.7%, y/y, in the final quarter of the year, resulting in 4% growth for the year as a whole (2014: 3%; Table 1). In seasonally- and working day-adjusted (WDA) terms, growth was a more modest 0.75%, q/q, or a SAAR of about 3%. T...

Headline GDP is impressive, but the details are much less so
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2016

Turkish GDP expanded by an impressive – and higher-than-expected -- 5.7%, y/y, in the final quarter of the year, resulting in 4% growth for the year as a whole (2014: 3%). The figure no doubt makes an impressive headline, but the details suggest some caution. First, in seasonally- and working day...

Two heads-up: Terror and referendum risks
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Mar 2016

I wish to share with my audience two time-sensitive pieces of information that I believe are pertinent to economic and market performance. Before I start, it is important to emphasize that I do all my research based on open sources and have no private information of the likelihood of either event...

Weekly Tracker: Mar 27-Apr 2
TURKEY · Report · 27 Mar 2016

PM Davutoglu announced that AKP’s draft Constitution will be presented to parliament by late May/early June, which means a general floor vote on a nation-wide referendum. We go further and claim that a snap election is a serious possibility. An American prosecutor ordered the arrest of Turkish...

The MPC’s Not-So Surprising Move
TURKEY · Report · 24 Mar 2016

Contrary to consensus, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the O/N lending rate by 25 bps today, while leaving the other short-term rates (one-week repo and the O/N borrowing rates) unchanged (Graph 1). We are not too surprised with the move, as we had put the odds in favor of a cut of the O/...

Weekly Tracker: March 20-26
TURKEY · Report · 20 Mar 2016

EU and Turkey agreed on a temporary deal to swap Syrian refugees, which gives us little hope that the former takes Turkey seriously as a strategic partner. For AKP visa-free travel was the most important concession, which was conditionally granted, and might serve as a harbinger of a referendum o...

Turkish politics: It’s a totally new ball game
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Mar 2016

I’m preparing to write one of the most difficult Weeklies of this year and thought it important to share some of my initial views with my readers, because the three developments I’ll mention may have an important influence on Turkey’s risk premium. Since they act in opposite directions, I leave i...

Turkey entering a vicious cycle of crack-downs and terror
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Mar 2016

Hours after we e-mailed our Weekly Tracker, where we warned of PKK’s intentions to wreak havoc in Western cities, a BMW car laden with explosives detonated in the busy Kizilay Square of Ankara, killing 34 and injuring 125 innocent civilians. 17 of the injured are in critical condition, meaning th...

Weekly Tracker: March 13-19
TURKEY · Report · 13 Mar 2016

Davutoglu’s provocative refugee proposal to EU is not acceptable in its initial form, meaning that some kind of bargaining will have to take place. Given that there is no Plan B for EU, and no other direction to turn for Ankara, we bet on some type of a compromise. Russia might propose a federa...

​EU-Turkey summit: A hard offer to swallow for EU
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2016

The historic EU-Turkey summit ended with a decision to hold another one on 17-18 March, as Turkish Premier Davutoglu arrived at Brussels with a ground-breaking proposal that can largely mitigate EU’s refugee crisis. The problem is EU needs to pay the piper and the price might be too high. On the ...

Weekly Tracker: March 6-12
TURKEY · Report · 06 Mar 2016

We think both the investment community and the press devote far less attention to Monday’s EU-Turkey summit than it deserves. Its results could be historic turning points for both sides. The press is cautiously optimistic that EU and Turkey will reach a deal to keep refugees in Turkey, but we hav...

​Erdogan’s proposals and HDP immunities
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2016

I’ve received two questions from a reader, the answers to which might be of interest to my readers. These are the questions: 1) While I have a lot of sympathy with your view that Erdogan/AKP will try to push for the exec presidency at some points this year, the presidential spokesman commented la...

Inflation: Back to End-December Level
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2016

Consumer prices were broadly unchanged in February, compared with expectations of about a 0.3% increase, thanks mainly to the benign behavior of food prices. Given last year’s elevated base, the 12-month CPI-inflation dropped to 8.8% in February, down from 9.6% in January, basically back to where...

Referendum and early elections scenarios—once again
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Mar 2016 · 1 response

Once again, I’m taking the opportunity to use questions posed by a reader to address issues which might interest my entire audience. These are the questions: “what is the earliest a referendum could take place? how would this unveil? what are the legalistic implications of a referendum and over w...

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