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Weekly Tracker: Feb 28-Mar 5
TURKEY · Report · 28 Feb 2016

Executive Summary Presidential spokesperson Mr. Ibrahim Kalin ruled out early elections to resolve the Executive Presidency controversy, but we still believe Turks will face a ballot later in the year. President Erdogan might think his lack of formal power at the top of the totem pole is unsustai...

On Auto-Pilot, At Least Until April
TURKEY · Report · 23 Feb 2016

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee has left all rates unchanged today (Graph 1). The statement was almost exactly the same as well, except for two minor changes. The sentence, “demand from the European Union economies continues to support exports”, was modified to include, “at an increasi...

The Year of Our Discontent
TURKEY · Report · 21 Feb 2016

The political context is highly chaotic and non-linear. We have decided to take Syria as our starting point, which reverberates through domestic politics as well as the budding relationship with the EU. The war in Syria will not end soon, but Turkey will not dare to enter the country and watch wi...

Yet another terror strike clouds economic and political outlook
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Feb 2016

Terror struck Ankara a second time in less than twelve months, this time right at the very center of the city, very close to the headquarters of the Chiefs of Staff and Grand Assembly. The death toll is currently 28, with 61 injured. No organization claimed responsibility for this shocking incide...

Political risks are rising for Turkish assets
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2016

Since the turn of the year, I’ve been very constructive on TL denominated assets, despite the visible tensions with Russia and the massive sell-off in the EM universe. After the developments of yesterday, I’m less so on account of two political risks having changed nature. First the Constitutiona...

Weekly Tracker: February 14-20
TURKEY · Report · 14 Feb 2016

Despite our passionate reasoning, rumors of a Turkish military intervention in Syria would not die, largely because Ankara keeps its options open. We argue once again that a military operation is not feasible. Meanwhile, Turkey-EU relations are improving, but at gunpoint.President Erdogan is open...

​Will Turkey send her military to Syria?
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2016

I felt the need to revisit the question of a Turkish military intervention in Syria because in the last 24 hours the linked articles in Business Insider, Financial Times and WSJ mentioned the possibility in different contexts. While there are many reasons why Turkish markets were sinking until to...

Week of February 7
TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2016

After the collapse of Geneva peace talks, pro-Assad forces redoubled their efforts to lay siege to Aleppo, pushing 70K refugees towards Turkey. As another great human tragedy unfolds in the neighbor, the fall of Aleppo could trigger a series of events that could spell diplomatic disaster for Turk...

Geneva talks suspended, Ankara worried
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Feb 2016

After only a few brief indirect meetings with the involved parties, U.N. special envoy Stefan de Mistura threw in the towel, announcing late last night that Syrian peace talks “were temporarily suspended” until 25th of February, which in my view causes great concern to Ankara. While de Mistura wa...

Core Inflation Just Short of Double-Digit
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2016

Consumer prices increased by 1.8% in January, broadly in line with expectations, which raised the 12-month rate further to 9.6%, from 8.8% in December, with the increase mainly stemming from administrative price hikes and food prices . More importantly, the 12-month core inflation (I-index) conti...

Weekly Tracker: Jan 31- Feb 6
TURKEY · Report · 31 Jan 2016

Peace talks in Geneva are finally underway, but expectations for a break-through to end the five-year war are very low. Meanwhile, Russia is cooperating with PYD, the Syrian Kurdish entity, to encircle Turkey from the South, a harbinger of more regional tensions to come. The campaign to put do...

Weekly Tracker: January 24-30
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jan 2016

Turkey is at a very critical juncture with regards to political risk premia. There are a host of issues ranging from Syria to EU, some of which present new troubles to pile on top of the existing ones, and others, which may bring opportunities for markets and the economy. The politics section of ...

MPC: Back to Square One
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jan 2016

As expected, the Bank has left all interest rates unchanged today (Graph 1), most likely because of heightened volatility in global markets. As we had noted earlier, like in our last Tracker, regardless of what is meant by “simplification”, i.e. whether it is a cut of the O/N lending rate or the ...

Weekly Tracker: January 17-23
TURKEY · Report · 17 Jan 2016

Turkey bombed ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq in retaliation for the Istanbul terror strike, but unless Erdogan decides to take on the fundamentalist terror organization, the outlook for substantive measures is bleak. We expect more terror attacks from ISIS. PKK is about to be defeated in the urba...

​Terror attack in Istanbul: This one is very different
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Jan 2016

The terror attack, attributed to an ISIS member, entering from Syria, was almost inevitable. The entire media knew and reported that more than 30 ISIS suicide bombers were loose in Turkey. The National Intelligence Agency and police were fully concentrated on catching Gulen operatives and HDP mem...

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