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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation: Food Down, Core Up
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2015

Consumer prices rose by 1.55%, m/m, in October broadly in line with expectations. This has reduced the 12-month rate to 7.6% from 7.9% in September, thanks to the base effect from last year’s markedly higher food prices. The latter eased to 8.7%, y/y, from 10.7% in September. D-PPI also fell to 5...

Back to Single Party Government
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Nov 2015

Hi All: Murat here, filling in for Atilla Yesilada, sharing very briefly his first impressions on today’s AK Party victory. Facts: According to the preliminary results, AK Party won, quite unexpectedly, some 49% of the votes, winning around 312 seats in parliament, up from 258 in June (see table ...

Inflation Report: Lost in Detail
TURKEY · Report · 28 Oct 2015

The CBRT has released the last Inflation Report of the year today. The key change from the July report were the upward revisions of inflation estimates for this and next year to 7.9% (higher than the MTP’s 7.6%) and 6.5%, respectively (both mid-points), from 6.9% and 5.5% previously. The reasons ...

AKP divided: Coalition or third election?
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Oct 2015

I received another query from an esteemed reader, which asks: “Today I saw some news on Bloomberg quoting Mehmet Sahin and Ismet Yilmaz putting some risk on the possibility of a coalition involving the AKP. I would like to know if you think that the AKP will want to form a government with another...

Weekly Tracker: October 25-31
TURKEY · Report · 25 Oct 2015

This week’s Tracker is solely dedicated to election results and coalition scenarios. October polls assign very little odds to an outright AKP victory, but the party might produce 270-275 seats, sufficient to be tempted into a third election. In case of a hung-parliament, AKP-CHP is the most li...

MPC: Toward a Simpler World?
TURKEY · Report · 21 Oct 2015

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee did not change the key interest rates today (Graph 1). The economic content of the statement was also unchanged, but the last paragraph on the future direction of monetary policy decisions has gone through a number of interesting alterations. This paragr...

EU deal could forge a new Turkey story
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Oct 2015

Increasingly, Turkish elections are becoming a sub-plot in the greater Turkish story that is being gradually created. This story entails severe risks, such as PKK and ISIS terror, Kurdish unrest and the fall-out from the escalating war in Syria. Yet under modest assumptions, the benefits could be...

Weekly Tracker: October 18-24
TURKEY · Report · 18 Oct 2015

Turkey and EU began negotiations on a deal that would see Turkey stop the flow of Syrian migrants to the latter in return for, among other things, opening of 6 new chapters. A break-through would be magnificent in terms of reinvigorating the “convergence play", but it is too early to bet on it be...

Did Ankara tragedy bring the parties closer?
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Oct 2015

Once again, I’m using the opportunity provided by a reader in the form of a question to write an update. May I take this opportunity to kindly ask all of our readers to use our website to post their questions to me, Cosmo and Dr Murat Ucer? This is the question: Hi. Clearly the attack was a huge ...

Weekly Tracker: October 11-17
TURKEY · Report · 11 Oct 2015

Ankara was rattled by the largest terror attack in the history of the Republic, which is certain to add to the polarization of the nation and increase the uncertainly of election results. On the foreign policy front, Turkey and Russia are heading towards the biggest crisis since the Cold War, ...

Syria: What does Russia want from Turkey?
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2015

Man, Russia entered the Syrian equation in a big way, like an elephant enters a china shop to register wedding gifts. Kremlin is using an array of air assets to bomb all anti-Assad targets in the country, encouraged by which the regulars are attacking opposition forces around Hama and Idlip. Puti...

Lira Pass-Through Drives Inflation
TURKEY · Report · 05 Oct 2015

Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 0.9% in September (expectation: 0.7%), which meant an increase in the 12-month rate to just under 8% (7.95%, to be precise) from 7.1% in August. Food prices explain about 0.2 percentage point of the increase in the 12-month rate with the rest attribu...

A Pre-Election FAQ Sheet
TURKEY · Report · 04 Oct 2015

The big “Syria story”, i.e. the one concerning Russian involvement in the Syrian war has only marginal relevance for Turkey. But the capture of a Turkish soldier by ISIS may lead to renewed cooperation between the terror organization and certain elements within the Turkish state. New attacks on I...

Which election outcome will the markets like?
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Sep 2015 · 1 response

An esteemed reader wrote to us “Crew, What do you think would market responses be, based on your views and the views of your client base into the elections, to the different plausible electoral outcomes, especially: - AKP simple majority - Coalition with CHP - Coalition with MHP What would Cosmo ...

Weekly Tracker: Sep 27-Oct 3
TURKEY · Report · 27 Sep 2015

It wasn’t a Happy Id of Sacrifice for Turkey, as PKK killed 6 security personnel and wounded many. In the run-up to the November 1st elections, we predict more terror attacks and a vicious insurgency in the Kurdish cities. Meanwhile, AKP is losing support as a result of its crackdown to put down ...

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