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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

New beginnings or business as usual?
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jun 2023

Erdogan’s new Cabinet is full of surprises, highlighted by the return of former economy czar Mehmet Simsek. Simsek though, is only the tip of the iceberg in a Cabinet characterized with conciliatory and capable names drafted from party and civil service. The new Cabinet appears to have been grant...

Economic activity slows visibly in Q1
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2023

The Turkish economy expanded by a faster than expected 4% on an annual basis (2022Q4: 3.5%), but by a meager 0.3% over the previous quarter, down from 0.9% in Q4 of last year (Graph 1). Focusing, as usual, on the sequential (quarter-on-quarter) data, which is more informative in terms of the late...

Ready for another five years with the Chief?
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 May 2023 · 1 response

This is the first of several Market Briefs I shall be posting regarding Turkey’s historic election. It is brief and mostly aims at dispensing with the formality of notifying our audience about the results. There are three major uncertainties, which I need to resolve in the coming days in order to...

Que sera, sera (whatever will be, will be)
TURKEY · Report · 26 May 2023

The politics author shares his latest take on the potential outcome of this Sunday’s runoff, the econ author takes a quick look at the latest reserve developments, among a few other things, and our cosmic strategist shares some thoughts on the ever-growing pressures in the currency market. Ple...

Down the rabbit hole
TURKEY · Report · 21 May 2023 · 1 response

With a week left to the critical run-off between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, the politics section is rather brief, focusing on two issues. First the politics author explains why his predictions didn’t pan out. It turns out that there was a groundswell of nationalism, while IYIP and CHP voters didn’...

Election Notes-II: Turkey, a divided nation
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 May 2023

Nearly 20 hours have passed since the first ballot results were announced, but only the rough outlines of the outcome are certain. Even news sites have not yet begun to print commentary on what happened, or how it happened. I would understand if my audience expresses frustration with the vacuity ...

Elections: First words are not going to be very informative
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 May 2023

Contrary to my habit of spouting updates on elections in the past, I find myself utterly confused at 03:35 am Istanbul time, deadly afraid of making a mistake even in reflecting the initial results of the elections, much less starting a preliminary analysis. I’m very confident that the Republic A...

Famous last words: the macro sequel…
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 May 2023

Having done quite a few reports, calls and zooms over the past month or so, many of them jointly with my colleague Atilla (see the brief sent out earlier today on his latest thoughts), I thought it might be useful to provide a quick recap on what I’ve been saying on the macro side. Broadly speaki...

Famous Last Words: As luck would have it…
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 May 2023 · 1 response

It is time to say my final words, which are going to be substantially different than my comments in the last Weekly. I’ve always believed Erdogan’s greatest asset wasn’t his charisma, ruthlessness or the Machiavellian tactical intelligence, but luck. The last minute decision by protest candidate ...

Alea iacta est
TURKEY · Report · 07 May 2023 · 1 response

The politics author admits his essays contain little new information except a modest revision to his scenarios for the Grand Assembly. In brief, he expects the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu to declare victory in the second round, with an uneasy coalition of the Nation and Green-Left All...

Better than expected, but still sticky
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2023

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 2.4%, m/m, in April, with the 12-month rate easing further to 43.7%, y/y, down from 50.5% in March – and a peak of 85.5% last October -- as the base effect has continued through April. Our even larger miss (3.3%) stemmed from a sharper drop in energy ...

From Istanbul, with confusion
TURKEY · Report · 30 Apr 2023

This week’s political essays are not very informative, because there are several technical glitches in poll averages, which the politics author uses as his primary reference material. He still remains very confident that Kilicdaroglu will cross the finish line ahead of Erdogan in the second round...

Turkey webinar replay: Approaching the election of the century
TURKEY · Report · 28 Apr 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada discussing Turkey's current economic and political situation as Turkey approaches the most consequential elections of its modern history and the likely impact of the election on Turkey's outlook.

A pre-election Q&A
TURKEY · Report · 24 Apr 2023 · 1 response

We tried to address some key questions in our as well as our readers’ minds, in a Q&A format. With less than three weeks left to the critical ballot date, polls are largely static. As it stands, Kemal Kilicdaroglu will likely become the next president of Turkey, as his Nation Alliance will hav...

Everything, everywhere, all up in the air
TURKEY · Report · 16 Apr 2023 · 2 responses

The politics author’s strong conviction about a Kilicdaroglu victory in the presidential ballot is confirmed by more data, but the parliamentary race is up in the air -- and could go either way at this juncture, in terms of the number of seats the alliances might score. Worse, the uncertainty abo...

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