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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Weekly Tracker: March 22-28
TURKEY · Report · 22 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Kurdish Leader Ocalan issued a historic call to PKK to end the armed struggle in Turkey, but details were left deliberately up in the air. President Erdogan suddenly rebelled against his own government, bashing the way the Peace Process is handled. The recent spate of polls hera...

MPC Tries Damage Control
TURKEY · Report · 17 Mar 2015

As expected, given the wobbly behavior of the lira and the recent deterioration in inflation expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee did the cautious thing today, leaving all interest rates unchanged (see graph). As for the content of the statement, the assessments on the current account defi...

Weekly Tracker: March 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Mar 2015

Executive SummaryIn this Econ-only Tracker, we briefly review the latest date releases and preview the upcoming MPC meeting on Tuesday. We think the MPC will keep rates on hold this week, given the circumstances, even though this solves close to nothing in terms of broader uncertainties regarding...

First Impressions from the Erdogan-Babacan-Basci-Summit
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Mar 2015

I’m rushing my first impressions from the Erdogan, Babacan and Basci summit which concluded around 8 pm Turkish time last night. A brief statement from Erdogan followed around 9:30 pm. I wanted to pen this so that our Asian readers have something to work with. The summary is brief: Erdogan and hi...

What to expect from the critical Erdogan-Babacan and Basci summit?
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2015

Davutoglu received a second briefing today from his economy team and announced that President Erdogan will receive economy czar Babacan CBRT head Basci on Wednesday (time of the meeting not available to me). The critical summit was preceded by a global EM F/X sell-off, massive turmoil in Turkish ...

Weekly Tracker: March 8-14
TURKEY · Report · 08 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The main opposition party CHP is aiming high in this election. Can it really score the 35% it has set as a goal? We think not, but the fault doesn’t lay with the party. Meanwhile, former President Mr. Abdullah Gul is signaling that he may return to active politics. What kind of ...

Core Encourages, Questions Remain
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2015

February CPI inflation came in at 0.7%, broadly in line with expectations, which raised the 12-month rate to 7.5%, up from 7.2% in January, because of – once again – a sharp increase in food prices. Producer price inflation continues to fare low, thanks to favorable base effects as well as the sh...

Honeymoon Cut Short
TURKEY · Report · 01 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Hours before our editing deadline, incarcerated PKK leader Mr. Abdullah Ocalan issued a call to separatist terror organization PKK to convene its Grand Convention to consider a “reinforced ceasefire”. Can it work? We only assign 30% odds to success. What does President Erdogan w...

Heads up: Rumors of Babacan’s resignation
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Feb 2015

CBRT’s 50 basis point cut of the O/N lending rate didn’t please the AKP government. The chorus of objecting voices which began with Premier Davutoglu was soon joined by President Erdogan who accused CBRT to be in collusion with “foreign powers” to hold Turkey back. Afterwards Economy czar Babacan...

It's all politics, at this stage...
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2015

Since my name was mentioned in Cosmic's latest post, I might as well do a follow up, though I have little to add to his succinct analysis, especially the two main observations He makes -- that: 1) rate cuts should not have much effect on domestic demand against a backdrop of heightened policy vol...

Cosmic Strategist reviews CBRT decision
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2015 · 1 response

CBRT fooled the markets once again by cutting the O/N lending by 50 basis point and the weekly repo and the O/N borrowing rates by 25 basis points each. The market had anticipated a minor or no cut in the O/N lending rate and 25-50 basis point cuts in the other two. In the accompanying statement ...

Weekly Tracker: February 22-28
TURKEY · Report · 22 Feb 2015

Executive Summary ISIS terror may be the new threat to political stability. Turkish military entered Syria on Saturday to evacuate the tiny military contingent defending the Shah Suleiman shrine and to bring home the remains of the titular founder of the Ottoman Empire, suggesting disagreements w...

Peace Process: The buck stopped at Qandil
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2015

Hopes of a historic breakthrough in the peace talks between AKP and Kurdish rights actors were dashed when PKK refused to pull out from Turkey, while Davutoglu responded by turning down PKK’s prior conditions for doing so. The Process is not dead, everyone in Turkey wants peace, but it is best to...

Weekly Tracker: February 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Feb 2015

Executive Summary According to press reports, Ankara and Kurdish rights party HDP are on the verge of announcing a major deal in the ethnic peace talks. From what we read, the deal may still be vetoed by PKK, or scuppered by the passage of the Internal Security Reform Bill. The contents leaked to...

Weekly Tracker: February 8-14
TURKEY · Report · 08 Feb 2015

Executive Summary President Erdogan says he is receiving death threats from alleged members of the Gulen Organization and we believe him. An assassination attempt will have disastrous consequences for Turkish politics and economic confidence since it will bring Turkey to war footing. According to...

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